Week 12 has arrived in the NFL, meaning families across America will get together with their families to enjoy a day of food and NFL action on Thanksgiving. BetMGM has the latest NFL betting lines for those games and more.
Are you looking to add some excitement to your holiday weekend? Well, here are three NFL picks and parlays that I would recommend.
1. D’Andre Swift TD and Lions Money Line (+230)
The Detroit Lions are still looking for their first win of the 2021 season and, in my opinion, have an excellent chance of getting it on Thanksgiving against their division rival, the Chicago Bears. Detroit won’t have to deal with the mobility of starting QB Justin Fields, as veteran Andy Dalton is getting the start.
Detroit has been very close to getting their first win in the last two games, tying against Pittsburgh and losing by only three to Cleveland. On top of this, RB D’Andre Swift played great in those two games, getting 266 rushing yards and a touchdown.
If the Lions continue to establish their running game, I like the chances of Swift scoring a touchdown (particularly against the league’s 24th best rushing defense) and for them to finally get a win.
2. Titans +6.5 and Under 44.5 Points (+200)
This week, the Titans are significant road underdogs to the Patriots, and I am baffled that a team as talented as Tennessee is getting nearly a touchdown in the normal spread. They are 5-0 as underdogs ATS this season, and they have beaten good teams such as the Bills, Chiefs, and Rams already.
One concern I have about the Titans is the status of WR A.J. Brown, but it looks like he could play next week since his X-rays came back negative. I cannot see the Titans losing this game by a touchdown with their track record as long as he plays.
As for the under, the Patriots are the league’s best scoring defense, only allowing 16.1 points per game.
The Titans have the fourth-best rushing defense, allowing just 97.2 rushing yards per game. New England has not put up many points against teams that can stop the run. Tampa Bay and New Orleans are two of the only teams ahead of the Titans here, and when the Patriots played those two, they scored 30 points combined and lost both games.
With that in mind, I expect the Titans to keep this game close and low-scoring. The parlay combination above can protect you from a touchdown deficit.
3. Washington Money Line (-110) and Under 46.5 Points (-110)
Finally, Washington hosts Seattle on MNF this week, and given the Seahawks’ track record, I like the chances of this being a low-scoring affair.
The Seahawks have been the most reliable team in the NFL to place an under-bet on this year. They are 8-1-1 at hitting the under in 2021. Unfortunately, Seattle also does not have enough time with the football, with the league’s lowest time of possession average at 24:44.
Washington has the league’s sixth-best rushing defense (98.5 rushing yards per game), and they are going up against a team that has struggled to find a suitable replacement for RB Chris Carson (who is out for the season) and ranks 23rd in rushing yards per game (98.4).
That means more pressure will likely be put on QB Russell Wilson, who hasn’t looked 100% healthy since coming back from his finger injury. As a result, his play has not been the same as before. Wilson has thrown for 368 yards, no touchdowns, and two interceptions in the previous two games.
With Seattle’s track record with underbets and the health of their offense in question, I like Washington to win outright. I also don’t think that this game will come close to 46.5 points. I could see a 17-10 Washington win.
Make Your NFL Picks and Parlays
These are my NFL picks and parlays for Week 12. Do you agree with these, and if not, what would you choose?
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