It seems that each week in NFL betting, we see a home team fall to a massive underdog. However, the term home field advantage can be used much more loosely this year, as the upsets continue to pile up and the parity throughout the league continues to rise.
In Week 10, the Cardinals lost at home as a -9.5 favorite to the Panthers. The Chargers also lost by a touchdown to Minnesota as a -2.5 favorite, and Denver lost 30-13 to the 2.5-point underdogs Philadelphia.
However, some teams did manage to take care of business on their turf. In Week 10, the home team had an 8-5-1 outright. So, who are the best NFL home teams? With only two remaining teams with a flawless home record (Packers and Bucs), let’s take a look at Week 11’s four best home bets.
New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-11.5, -650)
The Bucs are one of the two remaining NFL teams that are unbeaten at home, but betting on this game comes with a caveat. While I will take Tampa all day on the money line in this one, I’d be a lot more cautious against the spread.
This year, the Bucs are a dismal 3-6 against the spread, highlighted by an embarrassing 29-19 road loss to the 9.5-point underdogs Washington. Likewise, Brady’s bunch hasn’t looked itself lately, losing two straight to underwhelming opponents.
This Monday should be a “get it right” game for Tampa, and while I’d use caution when betting the spread, the money line should be a lock.
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-10.5, -550)
The 8-2 Titans continue to impress no matter where they play. They have a record of 4-1, both on the road and at home. It would have been easy to fold the fort after losing their heart and soul running back Derrick Henry, but Tennessee hasn’t slowed down.
What’s more impressive is their 7-3 record against the spread this year. So I’d feel confident taking the Titans on both the money line and the point spread this week against a Texans team that has been less than impressive this year.
Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills (-7, -300)
The Bills suffered an embarrassing loss to the Jags in Week 9. However, a week later, it looks like a minor speed bump after Buffalo put in a dominant performance to crush the Jets 45-17 on Sunday.
The Bills are 3-1 at home and are 5-3-1 against the spread this year. Though the Colts have won four out of five games, they still haven’t beat a team with a winning record this season. Look for that trend to continue in Week 11.
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (+2, +105)
It wouldn’t be the NFL without a few upsets, and I’m taking the Hawks at home this week over the banged-up Cardinals. Sure, the 12th man has limped a little this year with the Seahawks just 1-3 at home, but that trend can’t continue forever.
Russell Wilson looked expectedly rusty against Green Bay on Sunday, but with another week of practice under his belt, I look for him to be back to old form in this one. Every team goes through a rough patch during a long season, and this is the Cardinals’ time.
Can You Bank on the Best NFL Home Teams?
The Packers and Buccaneers are the two best NFL home teams, but things get pretty average in a hurry after that. There are four teams with just one home loss, but the rest of the league seems to play just as well on the road as they do at home.
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