5 College Football Betting Trends for Week 7

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(Photo by Jamie Lamor Thompson/Shutterstock)
Andrew Doughty @DoughtyBetMGM Oct 14, 2021, 8:21 PM

Week 7 college football betting began with Louisiana covering +4 against App State on Tuesday night and will end with Hawai’i attempting to cover +14, as of Thursday, Oct. 14, against Nevada on Saturday night. In between, there are more than 40 games to bet on.

Here are five college football betting trends for Week 7:

Clemson at Syracuse

Syracuse has been dominant against the spread this season, covering in five of six games, tied for the best in college football. Clemson, meanwhile, is still seeking their first ATS win; they’re one of four winless teams this season and are failing to cover by an average of 12.3 points per game, fifth-worst in the country.

History says those trends will continue in Week 7.

Clemson is a 13.5 point road favorite over Syracuse in a game with a total of 44.5 points. Since 2015, home underdogs of at least 13 points in games with a total of 46 points or fewer, are 6-25 ATS. And that includes a two-game winning streak; Michigan State (vs. Northwestern) and Kentucky (vs. Georgia) both covered as big home dogs last season.

ACC Underdogs

There’s additional (recent) history on Syracuse’s side this weekend: ACC underdogs are red hot at the sportsbook.

Since Week 4, ACC underdogs are 13-2 ATS, a run that includes one seven-game cover streak and one (active) six-game cover streak. Even with a slow start – 6-6 through three weeks – ACC dogs have the best ATS record among all conferences. They’re 19-8 this season, well ahead of the next-best conference, the Pac-12 at 15-10.

Miami (FL) and Virginia Tech are among the other ACC underdogs in Week 7 college football spreads.

Bama as Sizeable Favorites

Alabama failed to cover -18.5 in the loss to Texas A&M. The outcome snapped a million streaks and obliterated a million trends, including one in which the Crimson Tide is a big favorite but not an eye-popping favorite.

Since Nick Saban arrived in 2007, Alabama is 50-23 against the spread in regular-season games in which they’re favored by at least 14 points but not more than 30 points. They’ve finished below .500 in those situations in only three of Saban’s 14 seasons.

Alabama is -17 on the road against Mississippi State on Saturday.

Is Chip Kelly Back?

Chip Kelly’s final game as Oregon head coach was a 35-17 win over Kansas State in the Fiesta Bowl. The Ducks covered the 9.5-point spread but failed to hit the over on 74.5 points. That was one of only 17 unders in Kelly’s four seasons at Oregon; the over was 34-17 from 2009-12.

When Kelly returned to college football at UCLA in 2018, his first game cashed under (62) tickets, a 26-17 loss to Cincinnati. And over his first two and a half seasons, the Bruins’ over-under record hovered around .500. But since late last season, the over has hit in five of their last eight games. And that includes one miss by only two points, the 35-24 win over Stanford in a game with a total of 59 points.

The total for UCLA’s visit to Washington in Week 7 is 55.5.

Liberty at UL Monroe

In a Week 7 blockbuster, UL Monroe is a massive underdog (+32.5) at home against Liberty. It’s only the 23rd game since 2016 with a home underdog of at least 30 points. And while it’s not an overwhelming sample size, the record is overwhelming.

Home dogs of +30 or greater are 14-7-1 against the spread since 2016. Most recently, UConn covered +31.5 in a two-point loss to Wyoming in Week 4.

You can view updated college football odds at the BetMGM sportsbook and listen (below or on Apple Podcasts and elsewhere) to betting analysis on High Motor by BetMGM:

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About the Author

Andrew Doughty

Read More @DoughtyBetMGM

Andrew Doughty is a writer for BetMGM and host of The Lion's Edge, an NFL and college football podcast available on Apple Podcasts and everywhere else.

Andrew Doughty is a writer for BetMGM and host of The Lion's Edge, an NFL and college football podcast available on Apple Podcasts and everywhere else.