Week 8 college football betting began with Coastal Carolina failing to cover -4.5 in an outright loss to App State on Wednesday night and will end with Hawai’i attempting to cover -18 (as of Thursday, Oct. 21) against New Mexico State on Saturday night.
Here are five college football betting trends for Week 8:
Pac-12 Road Favorites
From November 2019 through December 2020, road favorites in Pac-12 conference games went 4-11-2 against the spread, a stretch that included an 0-5-1 record over a three-week period last season.
Since Oregon failed to cover a 9-point spread in a loss to Cal on Dec. 5, 2020, the tide has turned and Pac-12 road favorites have been dominant in conference games. Shortly after the Cal-Oregon game on Dec. 5, Colorado launched an 8-game ATS winning streak for road favorites by covering -9.5 at Arizona.
The streak ended with Stanford (+8.5) outright home upset over Oregon in Week 5 this season but road favorites are still 10-2 ATS in their last 12 conference games.
Washington (at Arizona) and Utah (at Oregon State) are road favorites this weekend at BetMGM.
Big Dogs, Low Totals
UAB covered -17 against Southern Miss in a Week 7 game with a total of 42.5. It was just the fourth cover for a favorite at least 17 points in a game with a total of 48 points or fewer over the last two seasons.
Since 2020, underdogs in those spots are 15-4 ATS, a run that included three separate streaks of at least four straight covers.
There are six underdogs in this spot this weekend:
- Arizona: +17.5 vs. Washington
- New Mexico: +20 at Wyoming
- South Carolina: +20.5 at Texas A&M
- Rice: +23 at UAB
- Illinois: +23.5 at Penn State
- Navy: +28 vs. Cincinnati
Air Force Unders
In beating Boise State, 24-17, in Week 7, Air Force comfortably covered +3 and hit the under (52). It was the second straight under for Falcons’ games after two of their previous three games went over, including a 49-45 shootout loss to Utah State in Week 3 that blew past the total of 54.
Since mid-2019, the under has hit in 14 of Air Force’s last 18 games. Over that time, the under is 4-0 when it’s fewer than 46 points, as it is for their Week 8 game against San Diego State (39 as of Thursday).
“Good teams win, great teams cover” has been an anthem in the sports betting world for years.
“Bad teams lose, miserable teams don’t cover” has been Kansas’ anthem for more than a decade.
Three weeks ago, I broke down the amount of money you would’ve won by fading Kansas every game since their ineptitude began in mid-2009. Their ineptitude hasn’t waned in the recent weeks as they opened Big 12 play with a scoring margin of minus-79 points in two games, nor has their ability to win money for bettors fading them.
The Jayhawks are 1-12-1 against the spread since late 2019. They’re a big home underdog against Oklahoma in Week 8 college football odds.
And Fading South Carolina
South Carolina covered in three straight SEC games last October – at Florida, vs. Vanderbilt, vs. Auburn – but have covered just once in their last 10 SEC games.
The Gamecocks are .500 against the spread this season (3-3-1) but are just 1-3 ATS in conference play. And they haven’t been close in their last two games, failing to cover by an average of nearly 16 points in those games.
Their lone ATS win over the last 10 games: +31.5 in a 40-13 loss to Georgia in Week 3.