5 NFL Betting Trends for Week 3

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Tom Brady ATS
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Andrew Doughty @DoughtyBetMGM Sep 26, 2021, 10:12 AM

Week 3 NFL betting began with the Carolina Panthers covering an 8-point spread against the Houston Texans on Thursday Night Football and will end with the Dallas Cowboys attempting to cover a 4-point spread (as of Friday, Sept. 24) against the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday Night Football.

Here are five betting trends for NFL odds this weekend:

Chiefs in AFC West Games

The Kansas City Chiefs lost two divisional games in 2020 – their first season with two losses against AFC West opponents since 2014 – but still enter their Week 3 game against the Los Angeles Chargers with a 31-5 divisional record since 2015, by far the best in the NFL over that time.

They are also 22-13-1 against the spread (ATS) against AFC West opponents over that time, though only eight of those ATS wins have come at home. The Chiefs are just 8-9-1 ATS at home against the Broncos, Chargers, and Raiders since 2015.

Winless Teams in Week 3

Seven teams enter Week 3 with an 0-2 record, none of which play another 0-2 team in Week 3.

Since 2014, teams with an 0-2 record are 37-22 against the spread in their Week 3 game. When those teams went 5-6 ATS last year, it was the first year with a sub-.500 record since 2014.

Dak Prescott at Home

The Cowboys are 2-0 against the spread this season, though both covers came on the road. In their first home game of the season, the Cowboys are a favorite over the Eagles. And Dak Prescott is just 13-16-1 as a home favorite in his career, including five losses in the last six opportunities.

Prescott, meanwhile, is 5-2 ATS as a home underdog.

Tom Brady, the ATS GOAT

As of Friday, Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are a 1-point favorite against the Los Angeles Rams in their first road game of the season.

Since 2005, Brady is 39-13-2 ATS in games in which his team is favored by two or fewer points or an underdog. He’s riding a five-game streak in such games, including the 22-point Super Bowl win after the Bucs closed as a 3-point underdog.

Broncos Halftime Lead

The Denver Broncos are a 6.5-point first-half favorite against the New York Jets (and 10.5-point game favorites) as they seek a 3-0 start for the first time since 2016. In each of their first two games – wins over the New York Giants and Jacksonville Jaguars – they led by three points at halftime en route to double-digit victories.

This is the first time the Broncos have been a first-half favorite of at least 6.5 points since 2017, a spread they didn’t cover. That was one of 116 first-half ATS losses for home teams favored by at least 6.5 points since 2005.

Home teams favored by at least 6.5 points for the first half are just 85-116-8 over the last 17 seasons.

Visit the BetMGM sportsbook from your computer or mobile device (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) to view all updated NFL betting odds, live betting odds, and more for Week 3 and throughout the season.

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About the Author

Andrew Doughty

Read More @DoughtyBetMGM

Andrew Doughty is a web content team lead for BetMGM. A graduate of the University of Kansas, he previously wrote for Sports Illustrated and HERO Sports.

Andrew Doughty is a web content team lead for BetMGM. A graduate of the University of Kansas, he previously wrote for Sports Illustrated and HERO Sports.