The Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans have a combined win total, in BetMGM NFL odds, of 10.5 for the 2021 season. If that combined total proved 100-percent accurate – in a mythical world in which you could earn half wins – it might not be enough combined wins for a playoff spot.
The Jaguars and Texans, in finishing 1-15 and 4-12, respectively, finished a combined 17 games behind the Indianapolis Colts for the final Wild Card spot last season. And they finished a combined 15 games behind the Miami Dolphins, who despite a 10-6 record, missed the seven-team field. Ten and a half wins wouldn’t have been enough last year.
Both the Jaguars and Texans are buried in NFL futures odds. From Super Bowl odds and AFC Championship odds to win totals and AFC South odds, the sportsbook – and the betting public thus far – believes they’ll suck. If they suck, they won’t make the playoffs. And if they don’t make the playoffs, those holding tickets for playoff whiffs for the Jaguars and Texans will reap the benefits.
But is there enough value?
As of June 23, the Jaguars are -350 to miss the playoffs (+275 to make the playoffs), while the Texans are -650 (+450). A $100 bet, for example, on each would return a total of $243.95 (including stake), or approximately 22 percent on a $200 investment.
This week on High Motor by BetMGM, in the first of four AFC divisional previews, we discussed the AFC South by reviewing the Jaguars’ and Texans’ playoff odds and breaking down the parlay opportunity by combining both bets. Also: Finding value with the Indianapolis Colts’ win total, playoff odds, and NFL Coach of the Year odds for Frank Reich.