Appalachian State at Louisiana will decide the Sun Belt Championship this season. BetMGM’s latest college football odds have Appalachian State as a three-point favorite in this game.
Will the Appalachian State Mountaineers cover the spread? These are some of my predictions for the game.
Appalachian State -3
When looking at this game statistically, there doesn’t seem to be much of a difference between the two teams. On defense, Appalachian State is ranked 32nd in yards allowed per game with 440 yards, while Louisiana is ranked 63rd with 406.7 yards. In addition, only three yards separate the teams for average rushing yards.
When you look at the passing statistics, however, one thing stands out. Appalachian State averages 29 passes per game, while Louisiana attempts an average of 28. However, Appalachian State averages 37 more passing yards per game, meaning they’re more effective with their throws.
Another thing that stands out is that Appalachian State averages 1.8 turnovers per game, whereas Lousiana only averages 0.6.
On defense, Louisiana gives up 30 more yards per game, and those yards are all rushing. In passing yards allowed per game, the two teams are separated by 0.3 yards on average.
In a game between teams this close, I always look to other things that could influence the outcome. The main headline for the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns is that head coach Billy Napier is leaving for Florida next season. This coaching change may distract Louisiana.
The point here is, in my opinion, Louisiana will not have clear heads going into this game, allowing Appalachian State to strike.
Appalachian State has proven they can play with good teams, coming in within two points of beating Miami and later beating Coastal Carolina outright. I like their chances in this game.
In the previous meeting of these two teams, Appalachian State only scored 13 points. I expect more from Appalachian State, mainly because they average 35.8 points per game, and they are second in the Sun Belt in total yards per game (440). Since that loss, the Mountaineers have scored at least 27 points in every game.
As for Louisiana, despite the distractions, they still have the offense to put up some points themselves. They average 31.3 points per game and 406.7 total yards per game, both third in the conference.
I expect both teams to put up some points with a late score in a close game, potentially pushing this total over.
App State Money Line and Both Teams 20+ Points (+175)
If you want to have more favorable odds, you may consider an alternative such as this if you believe that the Mountaineers will win the game and go over the point total.
These two teams are relatively even, separated by less than half a point in points allowed per game, and Appalachian State averages a little more than four more points per game than Louisiana.
Louisiana hasn’t scored under 20 points in a game, and Appalachian State was only held under that once this year, the game against Louisiana. So I don’t believe Louisiana can keep the Mountaineers to under that total twice in one season.
Make Your Appalachian State at Louisiana Predictions
These are some of my best recommendations for the Appalachian State at Louisiana game. Do you agree with these picks, or would you go the opposite way?
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