Argentina vs. Australia Predictions, Odds & Picks: World Cup 2022

min read
Argentine flags fly at the Central Market on the day Argentina's soccer team will play Poland at the World Cup, hosted by Qatar, in Buenos Aires, Argentina, Wednesday, Nov. 30, 2022.
AP Photo/Gustavo Garello
Laura Paterson @ Dec 02, 2022, 9:00 AM
  • Australia is one of the surprise teams in the Round of 16.
  • Argentina is their biggest test since their opening loss to France.
  • I expect Argentina to win this game comfortably.

The FIFA World Cup Group Stage provided plenty of shocking results, but Australia has to be the biggest one of them all. Few people would have imagined the Socceroos advancing from a group containing Denmark, France, and Tunisia.

They now face one of the tournament favorites in Argentina in the Round of 16. 

Can Australia upset another team? Or will Lionel Messi’s team be a step too far for the undisputed underdogs?

Argentina vs. Australia Prediction, World Cup:

The winning team model predicts Argentina will win this Round of 16 game with 62% confidence. The model also predicts a 18% chance of a tie/draw in regular time.

» Get Win Predictions for Every World Cup Game

Argentina vs. Australia Odds, Outrights, Over/Under

  • Match Result: Argentina (-550) | Draw (+600) | Australia (+1500)
  • Draw No Bet: Argentina (-3000) | Australia (+1100)
  • Over/Under Goals: Over 2.5 (-145) | Under 2.5 (+105)

Argentina vs. Australia Match Info

2022 World Cup — Round of 16

Date: Saturday, December 3

Time: 2:00 PM ET

Venue: Ahmad bin Ali Stadium, Qatar

Coverage: FOX, Telemundo

Argentina vs. Australia Analysis

Despite the shocking loss to Saudi Arabia in their opening match, Argentina bounced back and won both their remaining games 2-0 to top their group. 

Lionel Messi was staring at an inconceivable group exit after his team’s tough loss to The Falcons, but they were sublime against Mexico and Poland. Both games could have been more than 2-0, particularly Poland, where a  Messi penalty was saved.

Lionel Scaloni’s team has always been renowned for their attack, but the defense has seen a magnificent improvement and the combination of Nicolás Otamendi and Cristian Romero is a solid unit. Considering  Lisandro Martinez is also an option as a replacement on defense, you can see how they managed to keep both Poland and Mexico at bay.

Scaloni took a chance starting Julián Álvarez against Poland, and the 22-year-old should retain his place against Australia after his goal-scoring performance. Saudi Arabia showed that defeating this team is possible, but I don’t think Argentina will be as complacent for this one.

Graham Arnold’s side has done better than most people expected them to. They were beaten-handedly by France in their opening game but showed their grit and determination to grind out 1-0 wins against Tunisia and, more impressively, Denmark.

The Socceroos were defensively astute in their last two games, with center-backs Harry Souttar and Kye Rowles particularly impressive. Granted, Argentina is a different attacking beast compared to the last two teams they faced. 

Nerves could have had something to do with it, but Australia did lose 4-1 to France, which has a similar style of play to Argentina. I don’t think that this team can get away with hitting on the break and then sitting deep to defend.


Argentina has Messi, Álvarez,  Lautaro Martínez, and more on the squad, and I see these frontmen causing all sorts of problems for the Australian defense. 

I am going with a big victory for Argentina.

Argentina vs. Australia Game Result Odds

  • Match Result: Argentina (-550) 
  • Draw No Bet: Argentina (-3000)
  • Over/Under Goals: Over 2.5 (-145) 
  • Argentina to Win and Both Teams to Score: (+270)
  • 3way Handicap Argentina -2: (+150)

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About the Author

Laura Paterson

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Laura is a dedicated in-house writer for The Media Image. An avid sports fan and field hockey player, she gets her fix through writing on a variety of sports for BetMGM.

Laura is a dedicated in-house writer for The Media Image. An avid sports fan and field hockey player, she gets her fix through writing on a variety of sports for BetMGM.