Argentina vs. Croatia Predictions, Odds & Picks: World Cup 2022

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Argentina's players celebrate after defeating Netherlands during the World Cup quarterfinal soccer match at the Lusail Stadium in Lusail, Qatar, Saturday, Dec. 10, 2022.
(AP Photo/Hassan Ammar)
Laura Paterson @ Dec 12, 2022, 1:41 PM
  • Argentina and Croatia both needed to win penalty shootouts to advance.
  • Croatia is likely to set up in a similar way defensively to stifle Argentina.
  • I expect Argentina to win if they can avoid going to a penalty shootout.

Both Argentina and Croatia overcame their opponents via penalty kicks to advance to the 2022 FIFA World Cup semifinals. 

Argentina survived a late flurry of goals to beat the Netherlands, while Croatia did all the right things to win against tournament favorite Brazil.

Will it be Lionel Messi or Luca Modric that inspires their nation to the finals? Or could it be the team’s two keepers that help them advance again?

Argentina vs. Croatia Prediction, World Cup:

The winning team model predicts Croatia will win this quarterfinals game with 40% confidence. The model also predicts a 24% chance of a tie/draw in regular time.

» Get Win Predictions for Every World Cup Game

Argentina vs. Croatia Odds, Outrights, Over/Under

  • Match Result: Argentina (-125) | Draw (+230) | Croatia (+380)
  • Draw No Bet: Argentina (-350) | Croatia (+230)
  • Over/Under Goals: Over 2.5 (+135) | Under 2.5 (-190)

Argentina vs. Croatia Match Info

2022 World Cup — Semifinals

Date: Tuesday, December 13

Time: 2:00 PM ET

Venue: Lusail Stadium, Qatar

Coverage: FOX, Telemundo

Argentina vs. Croatia Analysis

Argentina’s game against the Netherlands epitomized the chaotic, surprising and unpredictable nature of this year’s World Cup.

The Albiceleste seemed destined for the semifinals when they found themselves up 2-0 with 15 minutes left to play. However, Wout Weghorst had other ideas, and his late goal forced the game into extra time and, eventually, another penalty shootout.

The game will be remembered more for the mass brawls, poor gamesmanship, and the 17 yellow cards that were dished out than for any spectacular soccer. Still, Argentina managed to win, thanks to two superb saves by Emiliano Martínez.

Lionel Scaloni might make a tactical change if Angel Di Maria is fit. He set his team up with a back five against the Netherlands but could need a little more attacking power, given how Croatia will play defensively.

Fullbacks Marcos Acuna and Gonzalo Montiel are both suspended. So expect Nicolas Tagliafico on the left and Nahuel Molina on the right.

Argentina has scored twice in their last four games. However, they come up against the rearguard of Croatia, which managed to shackle a free-scoring Brazilian side.

I honestly didn’t expect Croatia to still be here at this stage of the tournament, but they managed to stifle Brazil’s creative flair and take the game to penalty kicks, which is their biggest strength.

The defensive possession masterclass played by Marcelo Brozovic, Luka Modric, and Mateo Kovacic in midfield could be just as effective against Argentina. I expect Zlatko Dalić to stick to this successful formula to try and cut off the line-breaking passes that Argentina likes to deliver from the midfield.

Croatia has gone to extra time in five of its last six World Cup appearances, and I expect this game to go the same way. Argentina isn’t looking particularly inspired in the final third, but it never pays to overlook the individual brilliance of Lionel Messi.

This Argentina team is aggressive and isn’t known for its sportsmanship, and I think they could use this to get under Croatia’s skin. 

If Argentina can stop the game from going to penalties, then I expect them to win. Still, if it does go to a shootout, then Croatia’s keeper Dominik Livakovic will likely be his nation’s savior once again.

Argentina vs. Croatia Game Result Odds

  • Match Result: Argentina (-125)
  • Draw No Bet: Argentina (-350)
  • Over/Under Goals: Under 2.5 (-190)
  • Argentina or Tie and Under 1.5 Goals: (+220)
  • Lionel Messi to Score Anytime: (+125)

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About the Author

Laura Paterson

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Laura is a dedicated in-house writer for The Media Image. An avid sports fan and field hockey player, she gets her fix through writing on a variety of sports for BetMGM.

Laura is a dedicated in-house writer for The Media Image. An avid sports fan and field hockey player, she gets her fix through writing on a variety of sports for BetMGM.