Argentina vs. Mexico Predictions, Odds & Picks: World Cup 2022

min read
Argentina's Lucas Martinez Quarta (2) and Mexico's Raul Jimenez (9) compete for control of the ball during the first half of an international friendly soccer match Tuesday, Sept. 10, 2019, in San Antonio.
AP Photo/Eric Gay
Laura Paterson @ Nov 26, 2022, 9:15 AM
  • Argentina must recover from a shock defeat to Saudi Arabia.
  • Mexico needs to be more accurate in front of goal.
  • Argentina is the favorite and should win by a slight margin.

Argentina was on the receiving end of one of the World Cup’s greatest upsets when they lost 2-1 to Saudi Arabia in their opening game. Lionel Messi and his compatriots have hardly had time to catch their breath, and now they’re up against a familiar foe in Mexico.

Mexico was held to a goalless draw against Poland thanks to their goalkeeper, Guillermo Ochoa, who saved a Robert Lewandowski penalty.

Can Argentina prove why they are one of the tournament favorites? Or has the shock loss shaken them to the core? Anything but a win for Argentina will prove costly.

Argentina vs. Mexico ​​Prediction, World Cup:

The winning team model predicts Argentina will win this Group C game with 58% confidence. The model also predicts a 27% chance of a tie/draw.

» Get Win Predictions for Every World Cup Game

Argentina vs. Mexico Odds, Outrights, Over/Under

  • Match Result: Argentina (-190) | Draw (+290) | Mexico (+500)
  • Draw No Bet: Argentina (-650) | Mexico (+333)
  • Over/Under Goals: Over 2.5 (+100) | Under 2.5 (-145)

Argentina vs. Mexico Match Info

2022 World Cup — Group Stage (C)

Date: Saturday, November 26

Time: 2:00 PM ET

Venue: Lusail Stadium

Coverage: Telemundo, FOX

Argentina vs. Mexico Analysis

Salem Al-Dawsari’s stunning solo effort secured one of soccer’s greatest upsets, and relative minnows Saudi Arabia beat one of the tournament’s favorites, Argentina, 2-1. This was undoubtedly not how Lionel Messi wanted to kickstart his last World Cup tournament.

Argentina was the overwhelming favorite, and it all seemed to be going according to plan when they went into half-time 1-0 courtesy of a Messi penalty. Within ten minutes of the restart, they were behind, and La Albiceleste’s 36-game unbeaten streak was broken.

Manager Lionel Scaloni has a lot to think about after the loss. His team underestimated the opponent, and just ten minutes of mistakes allowed the Saudis to capitalize. The defense was unusually sloppy for the first goal, and I think Lisandro Martinez deserves a start. The hard-hitting tackler is what this Argentina team needs against Mexico.

This is a team that isn’t used to losing, and it’s going to be interesting to see how they respond after their shock defeat.

Gerardo Martino’s side had more possession and more shots than Poland, but it never felt like they threatened to score a goal. El Tri has now failed to score a goal in their last three World Cup games and their 2022 top scorer, Alexis Vega, has just four goals this year.

Mexico has a bright midfield and a good defense, but they are toothless in front of goal. They relied on a saved penalty to share the points, but ultimately if they had taken their goalscoring opportunities, they easily should have won this match. 

Pacey players like Hirving Lozano must produce more on the flanks if Mexico wants a result out of this match. 

Mexico tends to hold onto possession as much as they can, patiently wearing down their opponents, and Argentina plays in the same style. This could make the game a little underwhelming.

Ultimately, Argentina has to win this match. I think Mexico will frustrate them, but the loss to Saudi Arabia was likely a blip and the COPA America champions will win this game by a slight margin.

Argentina vs. Mexico Game Result Odds

  • Match Result: Argentina (-190)
  • Draw No Bet: Argentina (-650)
  • Over/Under Goals: Over 2.5 (+100)
  • Argentina or Tie and Over 2.5 Goals: (+135)

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About the Author

Laura Paterson

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Laura is a dedicated in-house writer for The Media Image. An avid sports fan and field hockey player, she gets her fix through writing on a variety of sports for BetMGM.

Laura is a dedicated in-house writer for The Media Image. An avid sports fan and field hockey player, she gets her fix through writing on a variety of sports for BetMGM.