Argentina vs. Netherlands Predictions, Odds & Picks: World Cup 2022

min read
Argentina's players celebrate after the World Cup round of 16 soccer match between Argentina and Australia at the Ahmad Bin Ali Stadium in Doha, Qatar, Saturday, Dec. 3, 2022.
(AP Photo/Frank Augstein)
Laura Paterson @ Dec 07, 2022, 5:44 PM
  • This is the sternest test both teams will face so far.
  • Both teams have excellent attackers, which should lead to some goals being scored.
  • I see it going to extra time, with Argentina winning in a close game.

A rematch of the 2014 FIFA World Cup semifinals is a mouth-watering prospect as Argentina and the Netherlands go head-to-head at Lusail Stadium in the quarterfinals of the 2022 World Cup.

Argentina has improved with every game, while the Netherlands has remained steady.

Will Argentina step it up and prove why they are one of the favorites? Or can Louis van Gaal’s men reverse the 2014 result and ruin Lionel Messi’s last chance at a World Cup title?

Argentina vs. Netherlands ​​Prediction, World Cup:

The winning team model predicts Argentina will win this quarterfinals game with 30% confidence. The model also predicts a 48% chance of a tie/draw in regular time. 

» Get Win Predictions for Every World Cup Game

Argentina vs. Netherlands Odds, Outrights, Over/Under

  • Match Result: Argentina (+120) | Draw (+220) | Netherlands (+250)
  • Draw No Bet: Argentina (-200) | Netherlands (+135)
  • Over/Under Goals: Over 2.5 (+125) | Under 2.5 (-175)

Argentina vs. Netherlands Match Info

2022 World Cup — Quarter-finals

Date: Friday, December 9

Time: 2:00 PM ET

Venue: Lusail Stadium, Qatar

Coverage: FOX, Telemundo 

Argentina vs. Netherlands Analysis

Neither of these teams has had a particularly challenging route through to the quarterfinals, and this will undoubtedly be their sternest test so far.

Argentina recovered well from the shocking opening loss to Saudi Arabia, and there have been improvements in every game. The midfield axis of Alexis Mac Allister, Enzo Fernandez, and Rodrigo De Paul are an inspired one, as they provide the composure, control, and inspiration for Argentina’s attacking talent to thrive.

Of course, Lionel Messi is the name on everyone’s lips, and he seems to have found form at the right time, with his first knockout-round goal ever against Australia. 

The Netherlands is a much tougher opposition than most of the teams that Argentina has faced so far. With Van Gaal using the 3-4-1-2 formation he’s renowned for, I see Messi dropping deeper here and attempting to overload the midfield. 

Despite being the better team for most of the game, Argentina still conceded a goal against Australia and might have gone to extra time if it wasn’t for some last-ditch goalkeeping heroics in the final minute of the game. 

Argentina’s defense will need to be better to contain a team that loves to score on the break.

The Netherlands has rarely wowed spectators during this campaign, but the return of Memphis Depay looks to have transformed this team. He is a massive asset for the Dutch, and he’s the vital connection that makes the team play as a group. 

This was clear in the 3-1 win over the USA.

That being said, the Netherlands were the inferior team for larger periods during that match, and they were outworked and outmuscled by the USA. That won’t matter one bit to master tactician Louis Van Gaal, who set up his team to absorb pressure and use pacey players like Memphis Depay and Cody Gakpo to hit on the counter.

The Dutch are experts at snatching the opportunities that come their way. They have scored eight goals this tournament with just a 4.05 xG average. They also did well against the USA, scoring three goals on just 1.56 xG.

The Netherlands needs just a small sight of goal to finish its chances, so creating just a couple could be enough in this game. On the other hand, Argentina has created plenty of chances but doesn’t finish them as well. This could cost the Albicelestes.

Argentina is the favorite for this game, but I don’t see it being as straightforward as many think. There’s a reason Van Gaal is known for his tactics, and if he gets them right then I see this game being a draw in regular time with both teams scoring. 

As a neutral, it would be amazing to see Messi finally get his hands on the biggest trophy of them all. The Netherlands will be a stern test, but one that Argentina should overcome.

Argentina vs. Netherlands Game Result Odds

  • Match Result: Argentina (+120)
  • Draw No Bet: Argentina (-200)
  • Over/Under Goals: Under 2.5 (-175)
  • Both Teams to Score and Match to End in a Tie: +360
  • Tie or Argentina and Under 2.5 Goals: (+100)

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About the Author

Laura Paterson

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Laura is a dedicated in-house writer for The Media Image. An avid sports fan and field hockey player, she gets her fix through writing on a variety of sports for BetMGM.

Laura is a dedicated in-house writer for The Media Image. An avid sports fan and field hockey player, she gets her fix through writing on a variety of sports for BetMGM.