Astros vs Guardians Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 4

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Aug 04, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Astros (68-38) are -200 favorites vs the Guardians (54-50)
  • Astros starting pitcher: , ERA
  • Guardians starting pitcher: , ERA
  • Watch the game on BSGL

The Houston Astros (-200) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (+165) on Thursday, August 4, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Cleveland.

The Astros are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-115).

The Astros vs Guardians Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Astros are 68-38 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 55-49 ATS.

Astros vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Astros-1.5 -115O 8 -105-200
Guardians +1.5 -105U 8 -115+165

Astros vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Thursday‘s matchup with 50.8% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Astros and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Guardians vs Astros and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Yuli Gurriel has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 18 away games (+11.35 Units / 57% ROI)
  • Framber Valdez has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+10.25 Units / 52% ROI)
  • Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 26 away games (+9.75 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Michael Brantley has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+8.00 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Yuli Gurriel has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 18 away games (+7.55 Units / 17% ROI)

Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Richie Palacios has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 11 games (+6.20 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Konnor Pilkington has hit the Strikeouts Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 75% ROI)
  • Cal Quantrill has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+5.25 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Zach Plesac has hit the Strikeouts Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+4.85 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Richie Palacios has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 11 games (+4.80 Units / 38% ROI)

Guardians vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Amed Rosario 0.5 +575 0.5 -1600
Andres Gimenez 0.5 +475 0.5 -1000
Jose Ramirez 0.5 +325 0.5 -600
Josh Naylor 0.5 +333 0.5 -600
Steven Kwan 0.5 +950 0.5 -10000

Guardians vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Amed Rosario 0.5 -275 0.5 +180
Andres Gimenez 0.5 -190 0.5 +130
Jose Ramirez 0.5 -200 0.5 +145
Josh Naylor 0.5 -250 0.5 +170
Steven Kwan 0.5 -250 0.5 +165

Guardians vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Amed Rosario 0.5 +180 0.5 -275
Andres Gimenez 0.5 +190 0.5 -275
Jose Ramirez 0.5 +135 0.5 -190
Josh Naylor 0.5 +120 0.5 -165
Steven Kwan 0.5 +260 0.5 -400

Guardians vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Zach Plesac 3.5 -175 3.5 +125
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 63 of their last 104 games (+21.95 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 59 of their last 93 games (+19.20 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 30 of their last 50 games (+11.85 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 61 of their last 90 games (+10.95 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 47 of their last 87 games (+8.20 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 47 of their last 85 games (+11.15 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 37 of their last 64 games (+9.10 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 16 games (+8.75 Units / 50% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 17 of their last 27 games (+8.10 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 47 of their last 85 games (+6.15 Units / 6% ROI)

Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 54-52 against the Run Line (+3.85 Units / 3.14% ROI).

  • 68-38 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.45 Units / 3.66% ROI
  • 38-64 when betting on the total runs Over for -31 Units / -26.77% ROI
  • 64-38 when betting on the total runs Under for +21.95 Units / 18.63% ROI

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 55-49 against the Run Line (+1 Units / 0.76% ROI).

  • 54-50 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.2 Units / 4.92% ROI
  • 51-46 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.3 Units / 0.26% ROI
  • 46-51 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.05 Units / -8.79% ROI

Justin Verlander has allowed a slugging percentage of just .236 (49 Total Bases / 208 ABs) vs left-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .373 — 100th Percentile.

Justin Verlander has allowed an OPS of just .532 (477 PA’s) this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .676 — 98th Percentile.

Justin Verlander has allowed an OBP of just .222 (225 PA’s) vs left-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .294 — 100th Percentile.

Justin Verlander has a strike rate of 73% (406/554) in two strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — 100th Percentile.

: Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Zach Plesac has a strikeout rate of just 8% (6 SO in 75 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — third Percentile.

Zach Plesac has allowed a slugging percentage of .567 (34 Total Bases / 60 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .366 — fifth Percentile.

Zach Plesac has struck out just 13% (30/224) of left-handed batters he faced this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — second Percentile.

Left-handed batters are hitting .290 (58-for-200) against Zach Plesac this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .227 — fourth Percentile.

Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians

The Astros are 60-12 (.833) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .706.

The Astros are 36-5 (.878) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .708.

The Astros are 10-4 (.714) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Astros are 27-11 (.711) when scoring in the first inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .663.

Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Astros

The Guardians are 9-43 (.173) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .087.

The Guardians are 21-9 (.700) when scoring in the first inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .663.

The Guardians are 36-1 (.973) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .886.

The Guardians are 33-5 (.868) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .718.

Astros hitters have just 604 strikeouts in 3,302 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Astros hitters have put 40% of their swings in play with two-strikes since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Astros hitters have just 734 strikeouts in 3,962 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Astros hitters have just 224 strikeouts in 1,221 PA’s (18%) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Guardians hitters are slugging just .324 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .399.

Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Guardians hitters have just 732 strikeouts in 3,939 PA’s (19%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Guardians hitters have just 515 strikeouts in 2,912 PA’s (18%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 29% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Astros pitchers have an ERA of 2.73 (461.0 IP) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 3.85.

Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

The Astros pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 40% of their games since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .195 against Guardians pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .223.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .222 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .245.

The Guardians have won just 17% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Guardians pitchers have won only 17% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Guardians vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Cody Morris (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
  • Aaron Civale (Guardians): Wrist, D15
  • Anthony Gose (Guardians): Triceps, D60
  • Jason Castro (Astros): Knee, D60
  • Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Forearm, D60
  • Blake Taylor (Astros): Elbow, D60
  • Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D10
  • Joshua James (Astros): Lat, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.