- The Astros (68-38) are -200 favorites vs the Guardians (54-50)
- Astros starting pitcher: , ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: , ERA
- Watch the game on BSGL
The Houston Astros (-200) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (+165) on Thursday, August 4, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Cleveland.
The Astros are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-115).
The Astros vs Guardians Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Astros are 68-38 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 55-49 ATS.
Astros vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | -1.5 -115 | O 8 -105 | -200 |
| Guardians | +1.5 -105 | U 8 -115 | +165 |
Astros vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Thursday‘s matchup with 50.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Astros and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Yuli Gurriel has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 18 away games (+11.35 Units / 57% ROI)
- Framber Valdez has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+10.25 Units / 52% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 26 away games (+9.75 Units / 35% ROI)
- Michael Brantley has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+8.00 Units / 27% ROI)
- Yuli Gurriel has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 18 away games (+7.55 Units / 17% ROI)
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Richie Palacios has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 11 games (+6.20 Units / 45% ROI)
- Konnor Pilkington has hit the Strikeouts Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 75% ROI)
- Cal Quantrill has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+5.25 Units / 43% ROI)
- Zach Plesac has hit the Strikeouts Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+4.85 Units / 27% ROI)
- Richie Palacios has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 11 games (+4.80 Units / 38% ROI)
Guardians vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Andres Gimenez | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Jose Ramirez | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -600 |
| Josh Naylor | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -600 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
Guardians vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +180 |
| Andres Gimenez | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +130 |
| Jose Ramirez | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Josh Naylor | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +170 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +165 |
Guardians vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -275 |
| Andres Gimenez | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jose Ramirez | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -190 |
| Josh Naylor | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -165 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -400 |
Guardians vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Zach Plesac | 3.5 -175 | 3.5 +125 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Astros Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 63 of their last 104 games (+21.95 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 59 of their last 93 games (+19.20 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 30 of their last 50 games (+11.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 61 of their last 90 games (+10.95 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 47 of their last 87 games (+8.20 Units / 8% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Guardians: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 47 of their last 85 games (+11.15 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 37 of their last 64 games (+9.10 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 16 games (+8.75 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 17 of their last 27 games (+8.10 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 47 of their last 85 games (+6.15 Units / 6% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 54-52 against the Run Line (+3.85 Units / 3.14% ROI).
- 68-38 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.45 Units / 3.66% ROI
- 38-64 when betting on the total runs Over for -31 Units / -26.77% ROI
- 64-38 when betting on the total runs Under for +21.95 Units / 18.63% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 55-49 against the Run Line (+1 Units / 0.76% ROI).
- 54-50 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.2 Units / 4.92% ROI
- 51-46 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.3 Units / 0.26% ROI
- 46-51 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.05 Units / -8.79% ROI
: Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Justin Verlander has allowed a slugging percentage of just .236 (49 Total Bases / 208 ABs) vs left-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .373 — 100th Percentile.
Justin Verlander has allowed an OPS of just .532 (477 PA’s) this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .676 — 98th Percentile.
Justin Verlander has allowed an OBP of just .222 (225 PA’s) vs left-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .294 — 100th Percentile.
Justin Verlander has a strike rate of 73% (406/554) in two strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — 100th Percentile.
: Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zach Plesac has a strikeout rate of just 8% (6 SO in 75 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — third Percentile.
Zach Plesac has allowed a slugging percentage of .567 (34 Total Bases / 60 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .366 — fifth Percentile.
Zach Plesac has struck out just 13% (30/224) of left-handed batters he faced this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — second Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting .290 (58-for-200) against Zach Plesac this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .227 — fourth Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Astros are 60-12 (.833) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .706.
The Astros are 36-5 (.878) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .708.
The Astros are 10-4 (.714) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Astros are 27-11 (.711) when scoring in the first inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .663.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Guardians are 9-43 (.173) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .087.
The Guardians are 21-9 (.700) when scoring in the first inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .663.
The Guardians are 36-1 (.973) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .886.
The Guardians are 33-5 (.868) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .718.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 604 strikeouts in 3,302 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have put 40% of their swings in play with two-strikes since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Astros hitters have just 734 strikeouts in 3,962 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have just 224 strikeouts in 1,221 PA’s (18%) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters are slugging just .324 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .399.
Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Guardians hitters have just 732 strikeouts in 3,939 PA’s (19%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians hitters have just 515 strikeouts in 2,912 PA’s (18%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 29% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Astros pitchers have an ERA of 2.73 (461.0 IP) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 3.85.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Astros pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 40% of their games since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .195 against Guardians pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .223.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .222 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
The Guardians have won just 17% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians pitchers have won only 17% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Cody Morris (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Aaron Civale (Guardians): Wrist, D15
- Anthony Gose (Guardians): Triceps, D60
- Jason Castro (Astros): Knee, D60
- Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Forearm, D60
- Blake Taylor (Astros): Elbow, D60
- Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D10
- Joshua James (Astros): Lat, D60
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