Braves vs Mets Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 4

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Aug 04, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Braves (63-42) are +100 favorites vs the Mets (66-38)
  • Braves starting pitcher: , ERA
  • Mets starting pitcher: , ERA
  • Watch the game on SNY

The Atlanta Braves (+100) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-120) on Thursday, August 4, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Flushing, Queens.

The Braves are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).

The Braves vs Mets Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Braves are 63-42 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 56-48 ATS.

Braves vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Braves-1.5 +155O 8 +100+100
Mets +1.5 -190U 8 -120-120

Braves vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Thursday‘s matchup with 72.2% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the RBIs Under in his last 14 away games (+14.00 Units / 56% ROI)
  • Michael Harris II has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 19 away games (+9.45 Units / 49% ROI)
  • Marcell Ozuna has hit the RBIs Under in 19 of his last 24 away games (+9.35 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Matt Olson has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 16 away games (+8.60 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the Runs Under in 10 of his last 14 away games (+8.40 Units / 59% ROI)

Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Starling Marte has hit the Total Bases Over in 24 of his last 32 games at home (+20.80 Units / 57% ROI)
  • Starling Marte has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 32 games at home (+14.80 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Taijuan Walker has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 10 of his last 11 games (+9.25 Units / 69% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Over in 27 of his last 46 games at home (+8.75 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 33 games at home (+8.65 Units / 12% ROI)

Mets vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Nimmo 0.5 +625 0.5 -2000
Daniel Vogelbach 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200
Francisco Lindor 0.5 +400 0.5 -700
Jeff McNeil 0.5 +725 0.5 -2500
Luis Guillorme 0.5 +1200 0.5

Mets vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Daniel Vogelbach 0.5 -150 0.5 +105
Francisco Lindor 0.5 -225 0.5 +155
Jeff McNeil 0.5 -250 0.5 +170
Luis Guillorme 0.5 -200 0.5 +140
Mark Canha 0.5 -165 0.5 +115

Mets vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Nimmo 0.5 +210 0.5 -350
Daniel Vogelbach 0.5 +210 0.5 -300
Francisco Lindor 0.5 +155 0.5 -225
Jeff McNeil 0.5 +210 0.5 -350
Luis Guillorme 0.5 +240 0.5 -375

Mets vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Carlos Carrasco 5.5 -115 5.5 -125
Kyle Wright 4.5 -110 4.5 -130
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 53 of their last 79 games (+22.22 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 40 of their last 55 games (+14.90 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 14 of their last 20 away games (+7.70 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 33 away games (+7.60 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 20 away games (+6.40 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 66 of their last 104 games (+16.10 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 29 games at home (+10.80 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 66 games (+8.30 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 56 of their last 104 games (+8.15 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 38 of their last 70 games (+6.15 Units / 8% ROI)

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 54-51 against the Run Line (-1.05 Units / -0.8% ROI).

  • 63-42 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.2 Units / 1.26% ROI
  • 52-49 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.7 Units / -1.47% ROI
  • 49-52 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.3 Units / -7.18% ROI

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 56-48 against the Run Line (+8.15 Units / 6.45% ROI).

  • 66-38 when betting on the Moneyline for +16.1 Units / 10.49% ROI
  • 53-45 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.35 Units / 2.91% ROI
  • 45-53 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.75 Units / -11.2% ROI

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 59% (92/156) against Kyle Wright this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 98th Percentile.

Kyle Wright has allowed a slugging percentage of just .300 (63 Total Bases / 210 ABs) against right-handed batters this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .389 — 93rd Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 56% (70/126) against Kyle Wright in two-strike counts this season — tied for 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 93rd Percentile.

Kyle Wright has allowed at least one HR in each of his last four games dating back to July 9th — Josiah Gray has the longest active streak at 6.

: Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Carlos Carrasco has allowed an OPS of 1.549 (73 PA’s) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 1.026 — first Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .525 (31-for-59) against Carlos Carrasco when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .333 — first Percentile.

Carlos Carrasco has allowed a slugging percentage of .588 (40 Total Bases / 68 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .366 — third Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .353 (24-for-68) against Carlos Carrasco’s elevated fastball this season — tied for highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .222 — third Percentile.

Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

The Braves are 27-3 (.900) when scoring in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .663.

The Braves are 43-5 (.896) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .796.

The Braves are just 52-9 (.852) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .886.

The Braves are 26-20 (.565) on the road this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .477.

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

The Mets are 30-4 (.882) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .718.

The Mets are 56-15 (.789) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .706.

The Mets are 24-5 (.828) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .708.

The Mets are 56-3 (.949) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .913.

Braves hitters are slugging .679 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .563.

Braves hitters have 232 extra-base hits out of 561 total hits (41%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Braves hitters are slugging .495 on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .392.

Braves hitters have put just 34% of their swings in play this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Mets hitters have just 790 strikeouts in 3,977 PA’s (20%) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Mets hitters have 207 extra-base hits out of 657 total hits (just 32%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of .266 against the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .218.

Mets hitters have an OBP of .361 (439 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .325.

Batters facing the Braves pitchers put just 34% of their swings in play this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .182 against Braves pitchers with the shift this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .218.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 31% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Mets pitchers since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Mets pitchers have won 47% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Mets vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Dominic Smith (Mets): Ankle, D10
  • John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Andrew Smith (Mets): Back, D15
  • Tylor Megill (Mets): Shoulder, D60
  • Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Michael Ford (Braves): Neck, D10
  • Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Foot, D60
  • Darren O’Day (Braves): Calf, D15
  • Kirby Yates (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Michael Soroka (Braves): Achilles, D60
  • Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
  • Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Adam Duvall (Braves): Wrist, D10

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.