Brewers vs Nationals Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jun 11

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jun 11, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Brewers (33-27) are -155 favorites vs the Nationals (22-38)
  • Brewers starting pitcher: , ERA
  • Nationals starting pitcher: , ERA
  • Watch the game on MASN2

The Milwaukee Brewers (-155) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+130) on Saturday, June 11, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Washington.

The Brewers are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).

The Brewers vs Nationals Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Brewers are 33-27 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 24-36 ATS.

Brewers vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Brewers-1.5 +105O 9.5 -120-155
Nationals +1.5 -125U 9.5 +100+130

Brewers vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Saturday‘s matchup with 68.1% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Brewers and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Nationals vs Brewers and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Rowdy Tellez has hit the Runs Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Tyrone Taylor has hit the Hits Under in his last 5 away games (+6.30 Units / 79% ROI)
  • Andrew McCutchen has hit the Runs Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.25 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Tyrone Taylor has hit the Singles Under in his last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 65% ROI)
  • Tyrone Taylor has hit the RBIs Over in 6 of his last 11 away games (+3.80 Units / 35% ROI)

Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Josh Bell has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.00 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Juan Soto has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+7.85 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Lane Thomas has hit the Runs Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+5.50 Units / 75% ROI)
  • Lane Thomas has hit the Total Bases Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+5.50 Units / 59% ROI)
  • Josh Bell has hit the Singles Over in 8 of his last 11 games (+5.20 Units / 41% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 40 games (+6.30 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 23 of their last 40 games (+5.80 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 32 of their last 47 games (+16.65 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 39 games (+8.55 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 7 games (+2.45 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.10 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 40 games (+1.40 Units / 3% ROI)

Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 24-36 against the Run Line (-13.5 Units / -19.2% ROI).

  • 33-27 when betting on the Moneyline for -6 Units / -6.33% ROI
  • 29-28 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.5 Units / -2.24% ROI
  • 28-29 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.95 Units / -4.51% ROI

Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 24-36 against the Run Line (-17.7 Units / -23.95% ROI).

  • 22-38 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.35 Units / -13.38% ROI
  • 31-26 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.3 Units / 3.45% ROI
  • 26-31 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.65 Units / -11.65% ROI

Eric Lauer has allowed an OPS of 1.586 (37 PA’s) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 1.015 — first Percentile.

Eric Lauer has a strikeout rate of 49% (21 SO in 43 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 33% (42/129) against Eric Lauer this season — 6th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — eighth Percentile.

Eric Lauer has a strikeout rate of 50% (65 SO in 130 PAs) with two-strikes this season — tied for 9th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 90th Percentile.

: Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents are hitting .318 (82-for-258) against Patrick Corbin this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .237 — second Percentile.

Patrick Corbin has allowed an OBP of .355 (138 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .232 — second Percentile.

Patrick Corbin has allowed an OBP of .381 (286 PA’s) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .297 — second Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .382 (21-for-55) against Patrick Corbin’s elevated fastball this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .231 — first Percentile.

Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals

The Brewers are just 28-3 (.903) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .926.

The Brewers are 4-22 (.154) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .095.

The Brewers are 14-4 (.778) when scoring in the first inning this season — tied for 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .668.

The Brewers are 3-21 (.125) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .074.

Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers

The Nationals are just 4-36 (.100) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.

The Nationals are just 4-15 (.211) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .290.

The Nationals are just 12-20 (.375) on the road this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .482.

The Nationals are 19-1 (.950) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .926.

The Brewers are batting just .226 at home since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.

The Brewers are batting just .213 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.

Brewers hitters are slugging just .376 against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.

The Brewers are batting just .324 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .341.

The Nationals are batting .274 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .238.

Nationals hitters have grounded into 213 double plays in 1,675 opportunities (13%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.

Nationals hitters have put 39% of their swings in play with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 41% at home since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 33% in close and late situations since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Brewers pitchers since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% in close and late situations since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .305 against Nationals pitchers with the shift this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .213.

The Nationals have won just 22% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 5.98 (271.0 IP) on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.15.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Nationals pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Nationals vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Víctor Arano (Nationals): Knee, D15
  • Alcides Escobar (Nationals): Hamstring, D10
  • Hunter Harvey (Nationals): Pronator, D10
  • Joseph Ross (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Shoulder/Neck, D10
  • Mason Thompson (Nationals): Biceps, D60
  • Seth Romero (Nationals): Calf, D60
  • William Harris (Nationals): Pectoral, D60
  • Joshua Rogers (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
  • Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Right Forearm, D60
  • Aníbal Sánchez (Nationals): Neck, D60
  • Sean Doolittle (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • Luis Perdomo (Brewers): Elbow, D15
  • Alex J Jackson (Brewers): Finger, D10
  • Trevor Gott (Brewers): Groin, D15
  • Jake O. Cousins (Brewers): Elbow, D60
  • Kolten Wong (Brewers): Calf, D10
  • Brandon Woodruff (Brewers): Ankle, D15
  • Jandel Gustave (Brewers): Hamstring, D15
  • Justin Topa (Brewers): Elbow, D60
  • Freddy Peralta (Brewers): Lat, D15
  • Michael Brosseau (Brewers): Ankle, D10

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.