- The – (71-33) are favorites vs the – (71-33)
- Cubs starting pitcher: , ERA
- Cardinals starting pitcher: , ERA
- Watch the game on BSMW
The Chicago Cubs () visit Busch Stadium to take on the St. Louis Cardinals () on Thursday, August 4, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:45pm EDT in St. Louis.
The – are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at ().
The Cubs vs Cardinals Over/Under is total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Cubs are 41-61 against the spread (ATS), while the Cardinals are 56-47 ATS.
Cubs vs. Cardinals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cubs | O | ||
| Cardinals | U |
Cubs vs Cardinals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cardinals will win Thursday‘s matchup with 69.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cubs and Cardinals and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Michael Hermosillo has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.60 Units / 69% ROI)
- Michael Hermosillo has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.30 Units / 61% ROI)
Best Cardinals Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Miles Mikolas has hit the Earned Runs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+11.30 Units / 41% ROI)
- Juan Yepez has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 11 games (+8.55 Units / 68% ROI)
Cardinals vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Dylan Carlson | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Lars Nootbaar | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Nolan Arenado | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| Paul DeJong | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -800 |
| Paul Goldschmidt | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -650 |
Cardinals vs Cubs Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Dylan Carlson | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +160 |
| Lars Nootbaar | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +110 |
| Nolan Arenado | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
| Paul DeJong | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +125 |
| Paul Goldschmidt | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +170 |
Cardinals vs Cubs RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Dylan Carlson | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -350 |
| Lars Nootbaar | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
| Nolan Arenado | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Paul DeJong | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Paul Goldschmidt | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
Cardinals vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Miles Mikolas | 4.5 -160 | 4.5 +115 |
| Marcus Stroman | 4.5 +110 | 4.5 -155 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Cubs Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 25 games (+10.75 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 55 of their last 101 games (+10.65 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 41 of their last 75 games (+5.55 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 24 of their last 39 away games (+5.45 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games (+4.15 Units / 34% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Cardinals: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 45 of their last 80 games (+11.10 Units / 13% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 35 games (+10.85 Units / 28% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 19 games (+8.30 Units / 40% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the Run Line in 54 of their last 98 games (+7.50 Units / 6% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+5.80 Units / 70% ROI)
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 52-50 against the Run Line (-7.15 Units / -5.37% ROI).
- 41-61 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.75 Units / -13.91% ROI
- 44-52 when betting on the total runs Over for -13 Units / -11.57% ROI
- 52-44 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.9 Units / 3.47% ROI
Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 56-47 against the Run Line (+6.15 Units / 4.73% ROI).
- 55-48 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.65 Units / 0.49% ROI
- 47-52 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.85 Units / -9.53% ROI
- 52-47 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.5 Units / 0.44% ROI
: Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .115 (10 GB hits out of 87 GBs) against Marcus Stroman this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 51 total IP; League Avg: .230 — 100th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 32% (34/107) against Marcus Stroman this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 51 total IP; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 29% (58/199) against Marcus Stroman this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 51 total IP; League Avg: 24% — second Percentile.
Marcus Stroman has thrown his curveball 36% of the time (656/1,821) against right-handed batters since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 132 total CB; League Avg: 14% — 98th Percentile.
: Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .231 (12-for-52) against Miles Mikolas on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .336 — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 17% (68/402) against Miles Mikolas this season — tied for 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — seventh Percentile.
Miles Mikolas has a strikeout rate of just 18% (23 SO in 125 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 34% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 19% (188/1,003) against Miles Mikolas this season — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — seventh Percentile.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals
The Cubs are just 21-29 (.420) on the road this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .477.
The Cubs are just 7-32 (.179) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .282.
The Cubs are just 5-27 (.156) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .292.
The Cubs are just 3-51 (.056) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .087.
Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Cardinals are just 1-42 (.023) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .087.
The Cardinals are 32-7 (.821) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .718.
The Cardinals are 8-4 (.667) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cardinals are 47-17 (.734) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .706.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters have grounded into 46 double plays in 312 opportunities (15%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Cubs hitters are slugging just .344 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .447.
Cubs hitters have 662 strikeouts in 2,651 PA’s (25%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Cubs hitters have an OPS of just .376 (66 PA’s) in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .645.
Cardinals Hitting Stats & Trends
Cardinals hitters have 200 extra-base hits out of 470 total hits (43%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Cardinals hitters have an OPS of .792 (2,034 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .727.
The Cardinals are batting .344 at home over the last 14 days (1 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .251.
Cardinals hitters have an OBP of .345 (789 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .317.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 39% of their games at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 14% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 20%.
Cubs pitchers have won only 13% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 36% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Cardinals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Cardinals pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Cardinals pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into 98 double plays in 753 opportunities (13%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Cardinals pitchers since the start of last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Cardinals pitchers have walked 922 of 9,855 batters (9%) since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Cardinals vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Alexander Reyes (Cardinals): Shoulder, D60
- Steven Matz (Cardinals): Knee, D15
- Jack Flaherty (Cardinals): Shoulder, D60
- Juan Yepez (Cardinals): Forearm, D10
- Drew VerHagen (Cardinals): Hip, D15
- Wade Miley (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
- Manuel Rodríguez (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
- Bradley Wieck (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Steven Brault (Cubs): COVID, D10
- Michael Hermosillo (Cubs): Quad, D60
- Andrelton Simmons (Cubs): Shoulder, D10
- Adbert Alzolay (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Alec Mills (Cubs): Back, D15
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Jason Heyward (Cubs): Knee, D10
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