Diamondbacks vs Phillies Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jun 11

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jun 11, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Phillies (29-29) are -250 favorites vs the Diamondbacks (28-32)
  • Diamondbacks starting pitcher: , ERA
  • Phillies starting pitcher: , ERA
  • Watch the game on NBCS-PH

The Arizona Diamondbacks (+190) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-250) on Saturday, June 11, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Philadelphia.

The Phillies are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-120).

The Diamondbacks vs Phillies Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Diamondbacks are 28-32 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 30-28 ATS.

Diamondbacks vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Diamondbacks+1.5 +100O 8.5 -110+190
Phillies -1.5 -120U 8.5 -110-250

Diamondbacks vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Saturday‘s matchup with 66.6% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Diamondbacks and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Phillies vs Diamondbacks and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Christian Walker has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 13 away games (+12.45 Units / 87% ROI)
  • Christian Walker has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 13 away games (+7.75 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Christian Walker has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 10 of his last 13 away games (+6.75 Units / 47% ROI)
  • David Peralta has hit the Runs Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Christian Walker has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 13 away games (+5.50 Units / 26% ROI)

Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 12 games at home (+11.95 Units / 70% ROI)
  • Alec Bohm has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 14 games at home (+10.00 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 17 games at home (+9.40 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 12 games at home (+9.20 Units / 77% ROI)
  • Nick Castellanos has hit the RBIs Under in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+8.95 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 30 of their last 49 games (+9.80 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 60 games (+6.00 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 49 games (+5.55 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.85 Units / 37% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 28 of their last 53 games (+1.45 Units / 2% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 28 of their last 42 games (+12.75 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 33 of their last 53 games (+10.90 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in their last 7 games (+9.20 Units / 108% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in their last 8 games (+8.50 Units / 83% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games (+4.05 Units / 39% ROI)

Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 35-25 against the Run Line (+7.1 Units / 8.99% ROI).

  • 28-32 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.65 Units / 2.55% ROI
  • 25-34 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.95 Units / -18.27% ROI
  • 34-25 when betting on the total runs Under for +6 Units / 8.98% ROI

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 30-28 against the Run Line (+1.8 Units / 2.51% ROI).

  • 29-29 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.6 Units / -6.06% ROI
  • 34-22 when betting on the total runs Over for +9.8 Units / 15.25% ROI
  • 22-34 when betting on the total runs Under for -15.1 Units / -23.78% ROI

16 of Madison Bumgarner’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches this season — most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.

16 of Madison Bumgarner’s 30 breaking pitch strikeouts (53%) have been backdoor this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 13% — 100th Percentile.

Madison Bumgarner has thrown breaking pitches 69% of the time (157/228) when behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.

47 of Madison Bumgarner’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches since the start of last season — most in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 108 total IP; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.

: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Zack Wheeler has a strikeout rate of 45% (26 SO in 58 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — 98th Percentile.

Zack Wheeler allowed a batting average of .292 vs right-handed batters (10th worst)– 12th Percentile and just .183 vs left-handed batters this season (tied for eighth best among qualified SPs)– 87th Percentile.

Zack Wheeler has thrown inside pitches 49% of the time (326/661) with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 33% — 97th Percentile.

Zack Wheeler has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 72.9 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season (125 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 107 total IP; League Avg: 80.3

Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Diamondbacks are just 77-21 (.786) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .877.

The Diamondbacks are just 9-25 (.265) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Diamondbacks are 4-25 (.138) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .074.

The Diamondbacks are 10-3 (.769) when scoring in the first inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .668.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks

The Phillies are 5-22 (.185) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .074.

The Phillies are 5-21 (.192) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .095.

The Phillies are 80-62 (.563) at home since the 2020 season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .537.

The Phillies are just 19-47 (.288) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2020 season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .355.

The Diamondbacks are batting just .210 at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.

The Diamondbacks are batting just .186 with two outs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .232.

Diamondbacks hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.

The Diamondbacks are batting just .193 in righty-righty matchups since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .242.

Phillies hitters are slugging .456 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .382.

Phillies hitters have an OPS of .785 (1,060 PA’s) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .688.

The Phillies are batting .390 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .337.

Phillies hitters have put just 31% of balls in play to the left side of the field with runners in scoring position this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in close and late situations since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of 2020 — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .277 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .213.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .251 against Phillies pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .222.

Phillies vs. Diamondbacks Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Kent Emanuel (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Johan Camargo (Phillies): Knee, D10
  • Ryan Sherriff (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Jean Segura (Phillies): Finger, D10
  • Samuel Coonrod (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Nicholas Maton (Phillies): Shoulder, D10
  • Joseph Romero (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Rafael Marchán (Phillies): Hamstring, D60
  • Luke Weaver (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
  • Humberto Castellanos (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D15
  • Nicholas Ahmed (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
  • Jacob Bukauskas (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.