- The Phillies (29-29) are -250 favorites vs the Diamondbacks (28-32)
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: , ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: , ERA
- Watch the game on NBCS-PH
The Arizona Diamondbacks (+190) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-250) on Saturday, June 11, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Philadelphia.
The Phillies are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-120).
The Diamondbacks vs Phillies Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Diamondbacks are 28-32 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 30-28 ATS.
Diamondbacks vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 +100 | O 8.5 -110 | +190 |
| Phillies | -1.5 -120 | U 8.5 -110 | -250 |
Diamondbacks vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Saturday‘s matchup with 66.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Diamondbacks and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Christian Walker has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 13 away games (+12.45 Units / 87% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 13 away games (+7.75 Units / 40% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 10 of his last 13 away games (+6.75 Units / 47% ROI)
- David Peralta has hit the Runs Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 53% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 13 away games (+5.50 Units / 26% ROI)
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 12 games at home (+11.95 Units / 70% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 14 games at home (+10.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 17 games at home (+9.40 Units / 33% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 12 games at home (+9.20 Units / 77% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the RBIs Under in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+8.95 Units / 29% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Diamondbacks Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 30 of their last 49 games (+9.80 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 60 games (+6.00 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 49 games (+5.55 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.85 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 28 of their last 53 games (+1.45 Units / 2% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Phillies: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 28 of their last 42 games (+12.75 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 33 of their last 53 games (+10.90 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in their last 7 games (+9.20 Units / 108% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in their last 8 games (+8.50 Units / 83% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games (+4.05 Units / 39% ROI)
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 35-25 against the Run Line (+7.1 Units / 8.99% ROI).
- 28-32 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.65 Units / 2.55% ROI
- 25-34 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.95 Units / -18.27% ROI
- 34-25 when betting on the total runs Under for +6 Units / 8.98% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 30-28 against the Run Line (+1.8 Units / 2.51% ROI).
- 29-29 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.6 Units / -6.06% ROI
- 34-22 when betting on the total runs Over for +9.8 Units / 15.25% ROI
- 22-34 when betting on the total runs Under for -15.1 Units / -23.78% ROI
: Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
16 of Madison Bumgarner’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches this season — most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.
16 of Madison Bumgarner’s 30 breaking pitch strikeouts (53%) have been backdoor this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 13% — 100th Percentile.
Madison Bumgarner has thrown breaking pitches 69% of the time (157/228) when behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
47 of Madison Bumgarner’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches since the start of last season — most in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 108 total IP; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.
: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zack Wheeler has a strikeout rate of 45% (26 SO in 58 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — 98th Percentile.
Zack Wheeler allowed a batting average of .292 vs right-handed batters (10th worst)– 12th Percentile and just .183 vs left-handed batters this season (tied for eighth best among qualified SPs)– 87th Percentile.
Zack Wheeler has thrown inside pitches 49% of the time (326/661) with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 33% — 97th Percentile.
Zack Wheeler has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 72.9 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season (125 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 107 total IP; League Avg: 80.3
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Diamondbacks are just 77-21 (.786) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .877.
The Diamondbacks are just 9-25 (.265) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Diamondbacks are 4-25 (.138) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .074.
The Diamondbacks are 10-3 (.769) when scoring in the first inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .668.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Phillies are 5-22 (.185) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .074.
The Phillies are 5-21 (.192) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .095.
The Phillies are 80-62 (.563) at home since the 2020 season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .537.
The Phillies are just 19-47 (.288) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2020 season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .355.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
The Diamondbacks are batting just .210 at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.
The Diamondbacks are batting just .186 with two outs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .232.
Diamondbacks hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
The Diamondbacks are batting just .193 in righty-righty matchups since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .242.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters are slugging .456 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .382.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .785 (1,060 PA’s) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .688.
The Phillies are batting .390 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .337.
Phillies hitters have put just 31% of balls in play to the left side of the field with runners in scoring position this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in close and late situations since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of 2020 — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .277 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .213.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .251 against Phillies pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .222.
Phillies vs. Diamondbacks Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Kent Emanuel (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- Johan Camargo (Phillies): Knee, D10
- Ryan Sherriff (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Jean Segura (Phillies): Finger, D10
- Samuel Coonrod (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Nicholas Maton (Phillies): Shoulder, D10
- Joseph Romero (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- Rafael Marchán (Phillies): Hamstring, D60
- Luke Weaver (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
- Humberto Castellanos (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D15
- Nicholas Ahmed (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Jacob Bukauskas (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
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