Marlins vs Astros Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jun 11

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jun 11, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Astros (36-22) are -275 favorites vs the Marlins (26-30)
  • Marlins starting pitcher: , ERA
  • Astros starting pitcher: , ERA
  • Watch the game on SportsNet SW

The Miami Marlins (+230) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-275) on Saturday, June 11, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Houston.

The Astros are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -2.5 (+105).

The Marlins vs Astros Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Marlins are 26-30 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 28-30 ATS.

Marlins vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Marlins+2.5 -130O 8 +100+230
Astros -2.5 +105U 8 -120-275

Marlins vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Saturday‘s matchup with 56.3% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Garrett Cooper has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 20 away games (+8.10 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Jesus Sanchez has hit the Singles Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 57% ROI)
  • Garrett Cooper has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 20 away games (+6.65 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Jesus Aguilar has hit the Total Bases Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+5.90 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Miguel Rojas has hit the Total Bases Under in 6 of his last 8 games (+5.25 Units / 57% ROI)

Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Yuli Gurriel has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 57% ROI)
  • Yordan Alvarez has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.05 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Yordan Alvarez has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+8.00 Units / 61% ROI)
  • Yuli Gurriel has hit the Singles Under in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+7.90 Units / 66% ROI)
  • Kyle Tucker has hit the RBIs Over in his last 5 games (+7.70 Units / 154% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 36 games (+7.70 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.35 Units / 53% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games (+4.00 Units / 52% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 10 games (+4.00 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.40 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 37 of their last 56 games (+18.30 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 29 of their last 45 games (+12.10 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 42 games (+10.05 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 20 games at home (+4.85 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 39 games (+3.80 Units / 8% ROI)

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 30-26 against the Run Line (+2.45 Units / 3.25% ROI).

  • 26-30 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.25 Units / -12.04% ROI
  • 29-26 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.7 Units / 1.12% ROI
  • 26-29 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.5 Units / -8.96% ROI

Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 28-30 against the Run Line (-0.55 Units / -0.83% ROI).

  • 36-22 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.55 Units / 6.2% ROI
  • 18-38 when betting on the total runs Over for -22.8 Units / -35.99% ROI
  • 38-18 when betting on the total runs Under for +18.3 Units / 28.42% ROI

No Matchup notes for this Game

: Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a groundball rate of 66% (130/197) against Framber Valdez this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 69% (115/167) against Framber Valdez this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 66% (84/128) against Framber Valdez in non-two strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 69% (394/575) against Framber Valdez since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 108 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Astros

The Marlins are just 0-24 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .074.

The Marlins are just 1-23 (.042) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .095.

The Marlins are just 2-19 (.095) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .201.

The Marlins are just 21-3 (.875) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .905.

Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Astros are 18-2 (.900) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .710.

The Astros are 20-1 (.952) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .799.

The Astros are 11-3 (.786) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — tied for 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .729.

The Astros are 29-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .926.

Marlins hitters have 609 strikeouts in 2,185 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Marlins hitters are slugging just .353 against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.

Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .642 (2,185 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .728.

Marlins hitters have 757 strikeouts in 2,803 PA’s (27%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Astros hitters have just 492 strikeouts in 2,706 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Astros hitters have a groundball batting average of just .187 this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .235.

The Astros are batting .190 with two-strikes since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .167.

Astros hitters have just 1,162 strikeouts in 5,748 PA’s (20%) against RHP since the start of last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Marlins pitchers have picked-off 8 runners from first base this season — best in MLB.

The Marlins have won just 9% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Marlins pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 2.92 (197.0 IP) against division opponents this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.

The average home run distance against the Astros pitchers since the start of last season is 393.9 feet — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 399.9

Astros pitchers have an ERA of 2.70 (217.0 IP) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 3.82.

The Astros have allowed 0.97 runs per game (56/58) in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.30.

Astros pitchers have walked 7 of 53 batters (13%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the past seven days (6 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Astros vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Taylor Jones (Astros): Back, D60
  • Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Forearm, D60
  • Blake Taylor (Astros): Elbow, D15
  • Jacob Odorizzi (Astros): Leg, D15
  • Jacob Meyers (Astros): Shoulder, D10
  • Parker Mushinski (Astros): Left elbow, D15
  • Joseph Wendle (Marlins): Hamstring, D10
  • Jesús Luzardo (Marlins): Forearm, D15
  • Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Brian Anderson (Marlins): Back, D10
  • Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
  • Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D15
  • Anthony Bender (Marlins): Back, D15
  • Pablo López (Marlins): Wrist, Day-to-Day

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.