- The Mets (64-37) are -250 favorites vs the Nationals (35-68)
- Mets starting pitcher: Maxwell Scherzer (6-2), 2.08 ERA
- Nationals starting pitcher: Patrick Corbin (4-14), 6.49 ERA
- Watch the game on MASN
The New York Mets (-250) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+200) on Monday, August 1, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Washington.
The Mets are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -2.5 (+105).
The Mets vs Nationals Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Mets are 64-37 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 44-59 ATS.
Mets vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | -2.5 +105 | O 8.5 -115 | -250 |
| Nationals | +2.5 -130 | U 8.5 -105 | +200 |
Mets vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Monday‘s matchup with 50.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 19 games (+15.90 Units / 38% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Runs Over in 33 of his last 51 away games (+15.15 Units / 26% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+10.35 Units / 48% ROI)
- Taijuan Walker has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 10 of his last 11 games (+9.25 Units / 69% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Singles Over in 27 of his last 40 away games (+9.00 Units / 16% ROI)
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Josh Bell has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 21 games at home (+15.75 Units / 37% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Total Bases Over in 23 of his last 33 games (+12.15 Units / 25% ROI)
- Nelson Cruz has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 21 games at home (+11.30 Units / 34% ROI)
- Nelson Cruz has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+11.15 Units / 45% ROI)
- Yadiel Hernandez has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 9 games at home (+9.75 Units / 63% ROI)
Nationals vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cesar Hernandez | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Ehire Adrianza | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Josh Bell | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Juan Soto | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Keibert Ruiz | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
Nationals vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cesar Hernandez | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
| Ehire Adrianza | 0.5 -110 | 0.5 -125 |
| Josh Bell | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
| Juan Soto | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +120 |
| Keibert Ruiz | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +110 |
Nationals vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cesar Hernandez | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -450 |
| Ehire Adrianza | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -500 |
| Josh Bell | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Juan Soto | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -300 |
| Keibert Ruiz | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
Nationals vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Patrick Corbin | 4.5 +105 | 4.5 -150 |
| Max Scherzer | 6.5 -135 | 6.5 -105 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Mets Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 64 of their last 101 games (+17.70 Units / 12% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 57 of their last 101 games (+10.37 Units / 9% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 54 of their last 101 games (+8.15 Units / 7% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 35 of their last 63 games (+7.45 Units / 11% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 14 of their last 21 games (+7.35 Units / 31% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Nationals: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 53 of their last 90 games (+16.55 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 36 games (+6.95 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 10 games (+4.20 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 7 games (+0.75 Units / 9% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 54-47 against the Run Line (+8.15 Units / 6.73% ROI).
- 64-37 when betting on the Moneyline for +17.7 Units / 12.27% ROI
- 51-44 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.5 Units / 2.24% ROI
- 44-51 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.7 Units / -10.57% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 44-59 against the Run Line (-23.8 Units / -18.64% ROI).
- 35-68 when betting on the Moneyline for -19.75 Units / -18.41% ROI
- 50-48 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.75 Units / -2.4% ROI
- 48-50 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.4 Units / -5.68% ROI
Maxwell Scherzer: Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Max Scherzer has allowed an OBP of just .224 (514 PA’s) against right-handed batters since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 131 total IP; League Avg: .306 — 100th Percentile.
Max Scherzer has a strikeout rate of 34% (340 SO in 1,012 PAs) since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 131 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 99th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 38% (398/1,056) against Max Scherzer since the start of last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 131 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 98th Percentile.
Max Scherzer has a strikeout rate of 33% (104 SO in 319 PAs) this season — 7th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 96th Percentile.
Patrick Corbin: Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed batters are hitting .324 (115-for-355) against Patrick Corbin this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .243 — first Percentile.
Patrick Corbin has an ERA of 6.49 (105.1 IP)this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.49 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .324 (149-for-460) against Patrick Corbin this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .237 — first Percentile.
Patrick Corbin has allowed an OPS of .890 (502 PA’s) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .676 — first Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Mets are 28-4 (.875) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .718.
The Mets are 7-5 (.583) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Mets are 54-5 (.915) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .885.
The Mets are 25-12 (.676) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Nationals are just 16-38 (.296) at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .524.
The Nationals are just 35-60 (.368) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .535.
The Nationals are just 104-16 (.867) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .913.
The Nationals are just 11-63 (.149) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets have scored first in 69% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of .264 against the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .218.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .360 (429 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .325.
The Mets have a winning percentage of 61% on the road this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Nationals have scored first in just 28% of their home games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 30% at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 34% this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Nationals hitters have put 39% of their swings in play with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 31% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Mets pitchers this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Nationals pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 72% of their games at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 5.66 (415.0 IP) on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.16.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Nationals have won just 20% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Nationals vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Joseph Ross (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Erick Fedde (Nationals): Right Shoulder, D15
- Tyler Clippard (Nationals): Groin, D15
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs, D60
- Seth Romero (Nationals): Calf, D60
- William Harris (Nationals): Pectoral, D60
- Jackson Tetreault (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Victor Robles (Nationals): Hamstring, Day-to-Day
- Evan Lee (Nationals): Flexor, D15
- Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Forearm, D60
- Reed Garrett (Nationals): Biceps, D15
- Sean Doolittle (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Dominic Smith (Mets): Ankle, D10
- John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Jacob deGrom (Mets): Shoulder, D60
- Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Andrew Smith (Mets): Back, D15
- Tylor Megill (Mets): Shoulder, D60
- James McCann (Mets): Oblique, D10
- Trevor May (Mets): Triceps, D60
- Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60
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