- The Rays (34-24) are -155 favorites vs the Twins (34-26)
- Rays starting pitcher: , ERA
- Twins starting pitcher: , ERA
- Watch the game on BSN
The Tampa Bay Rays (-155) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (+125) on Saturday, June 11, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Minneapolis.
The Rays are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).
The Rays vs Twins Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Rays are 34-24 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 27-33 ATS.
Rays vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Rays | -1.5 +105 | O 8.5 -105 | -155 |
| Twins | +1.5 -125 | U 8.5 -115 | +125 |
Rays vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Saturday‘s matchup with 78.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Rays and Twins and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Rays Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Ji-Man Choi has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 7 games (+7.55 Units / 72% ROI)
- Randy Arozarena has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 20 away games (+7.40 Units / 21% ROI)
- Ji-Man Choi has hit the Hits Over in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 55% ROI)
- Randy Arozarena has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 23 away games (+6.35 Units / 23% ROI)
- Ji-Man Choi has hit the RBIs Over in 5 of his last 7 games (+5.95 Units / 85% ROI)
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 games at home (+16.25 Units / 97% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 12 games at home (+9.55 Units / 47% ROI)
- Gio Urshela has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 13 games at home (+9.40 Units / 59% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 11 games at home (+8.30 Units / 73% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 14 games at home (+7.95 Units / 57% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Rays Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 23 of their last 34 games (+10.95 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 20 of their last 31 games (+9.15 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 47 games (+5.65 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 20 of their last 36 games (+5.05 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 20 away games (+4.45 Units / 20% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Twins: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 36 of their last 58 games (+13.15 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 18 of their last 26 games (+11.50 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 27 of their last 43 games (+11.50 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 48 games (+11.00 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 23 games (+9.25 Units / 36% ROI)
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 28-30 against the Run Line (+0.1 Units / 0.14% ROI).
- 34-24 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.75 Units / 0.89% ROI
- 26-30 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.35 Units / -10.05% ROI
- 30-26 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.4 Units / 2.16% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 27-33 against the Run Line (-6.3 Units / -9.08% ROI).
- 34-26 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.2 Units / 7.62% ROI
- 29-27 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.1 Units / -0.15% ROI
- 27-29 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.25 Units / -7.84% ROI
: Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
No Matchup notes for this Game
: Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a Well-Hit Avg of .252 (29/115) against Chi Chi Gonzalez on low non-fastballs last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: .129 — 0 Percentile.
Chi Chi Gonzalez allowed a slugging percentage of .661 (109 Total Bases / 165 ABs) on breaking pitches last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: .364 — first Percentile.
Chi Chi Gonzalez allowed a slugging percentage of .676 (94 Total Bases / 139 ABs) on sliders last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: .377 — first Percentile.
Opponents batted .339 (56-for-165) against Chi Chi Gonzalez’s curve and slider last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: .215 — first Percentile.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Rays are 14-4 (.778) when scoring in the first inning this season — tied for 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .668.
The Rays are 2-19 (.095) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .074.
The Rays are 15-83 (.153) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .083.
The Rays are 21-13 (.618) at home this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .518.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Twins are 24-2 (.923) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .799.
The Twins are 3-17 (.150) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .095.
The Twins are 19-13 (.594) at home this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .518.
The Twins are 17-5 (.773) when scoring in the first inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .668.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
The Rays have scored 1.87 runs per game (406/217) in late innings since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.44.
The Rays are batting just .197 with two outs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .232.
The Rays have scored 1.65 runs per game (359/217) in late innings since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.32.
Rays hitters have put 41% of their swings in play against LHP this season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters are slugging .589 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .440.
Twins hitters are slugging just .493 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .560.
The Twins are batting .252 with two outs this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .232.
Twins hitters have an OBP of .325 (1,066 PA’s) on the road this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .306.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Rays pitchers have walked 144 of 2,147 batters (7%) this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have walked 28 of 524 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have walked 121 of 1,986 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have walked 159 of 2,514 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 42% against Twins pitchers since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
The Twins have won just 9% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Twins pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 38% of their games at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Twins pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 100 MPH 1,442 times since the start of last season — 2nd most in MLB.
Twins vs. Rays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Joseph Ryan (Twins): COVID-19, D10
- Daniel Coulombe (Twins): Hip, D15
- Jhon Romero (Twins): Biceps, D60
- Kyle Garlick (Twins): Hamstring, D10
- Randy Dobnak (Twins): Finger, D60
- Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
- Kenta Maeda (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Miguel Sanó (Twins): Knee, D60
- John Ober (Twins): Groin, D15
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Josh Winder (Twins): Shoulder, D15
- Jorge Alcala (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Sonny Gray (Twins): Pectoral, D15
- Cody Stashak (Twins): Shoulder, D15
- Jon Chargois (Rays): Oblique, D60
- Peter Fairbanks (Rays): Lat, D60
- Michael Zunino (Rays): Shoulder, D10
- Andrew Kittredge (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Brendan McKay (Rays): Shoulder, D60
- Yonny Chirinos (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Jonathon Feyereisen (Rays): Shoulder, D15
- Wander Samuel Franco (Rays): Quad, D10
- Nick Anderson (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Chris Mazza (Rays): Back, D60
- Luis Patiño (Rays): Oblique, D60
- Brandon Lowe (Rays): Back, D10
- Tyler Glasnow (Rays): Elbow, D60
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