- The Mariners (26-32) are -130 favorites vs the Red Sox (31-28)
- Red Sox starting pitcher: , ERA
- Mariners starting pitcher: , ERA
- Watch the game on ROOT Sports NW
The Boston Red Sox (+110) visit T-Mobile Park to take on the Seattle Mariners (-130) on Saturday, June 11, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10pm EDT in Seattle.
The Mariners are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Red Sox vs Mariners Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Red Sox are 31-28 against the spread (ATS), while the Mariners are 30-28 ATS.
Red Sox vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -190 | O 8.5 -115 | +110 |
| Mariners | -1.5 +155 | U 8.5 -105 | -130 |
Red Sox vs Mariners Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mariners will win Saturday‘s matchup with 68.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Mariners and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 13 away games (+9.95 Units / 34% ROI)
- J.D. Martinez has hit the Hits Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+5.05 Units / 63% ROI)
- Christian Vazquez has hit the Runs Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 46% ROI)
- J.D. Martinez has hit the Total Bases Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+3.20 Units / 62% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Singles Over in 8 of his last 13 away games (+3.00 Units / 21% ROI)
Best Mariners Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Ty France has hit the Hits Over in 37 of his last 51 games (+20.35 Units / 20% ROI)
- Ty France has hit the Singles Over in 36 of his last 50 games (+14.20 Units / 19% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 23 games (+12.95 Units / 35% ROI)
- Ty France has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 28 games (+11.55 Units / 37% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 12 games at home (+9.30 Units / 45% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Red Sox Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 30 games (+9.80 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 30 of their last 52 games (+8.85 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 24 of their last 39 games (+7.60 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 58 games (+7.60 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 25 games (+4.50 Units / 15% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Mariners: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 27 of their last 49 games (+6.50 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 13 games (+5.30 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in their last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 91% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 21 games (+4.72 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 13 games (+4.10 Units / 29% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 31-28 against the Run Line (+1.95 Units / 2.59% ROI).
- 31-28 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.6 Units / -3.47% ROI
- 22-30 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.6 Units / -16.15% ROI
- 30-22 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.55 Units / 10.13% ROI
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 30-28 against the Run Line (-4.7 Units / -5.84% ROI).
- 26-32 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.85 Units / -7.33% ROI
- 30-27 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.8 Units / 1.26% ROI
- 27-30 when betting on the total runs Under for -6 Units / -9.32% ROI
: Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Michael Wacha has allowed a BABIP of .131 vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 27 total IP; League Avg: .276 — 99th Percentile.
Michael Wacha has allowed a slugging percentage of just .148 (8 Total Bases / 54 ABs) versus the heart of the order this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 24 total IP; League Avg: .421 — 99th Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting just .141 (11-for-78) against Michael Wacha this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 27 total IP; League Avg: .234 — 98th Percentile.
Michael Wacha has allowed a BABIP of .188 this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 27 total IP; League Avg: .286 — 98th Percentile.
: Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
George Kirby has not allowed a walk in his last 71 PAs against a LHH dating back to May 8th — Yu Darvish has the longest active streak at 87.
George Kirby has not walked any of the 71 batters that he has faced vs left-handed batters this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 27 total IP; League Avg: 9% — 100th Percentile.
George Kirby has allowed an OBP of just .197 (71 PA’s) vs left-handed batters this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 27 total IP; League Avg: .305 — 100th Percentile.
George Kirby has walked 3 of 131 batters (2%) this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 27 total IP; League Avg: 8% — 100th Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Red Sox are 18-14 (.562) on the road this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .482.
The Red Sox are just 1-19 (.050) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .095.
The Red Sox are just 118-19 (.861) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .917.
The Red Sox are just 0-20 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .074.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Mariners are just 0-26 (.000) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .095.
The Mariners are just 4-15 (.211) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — tied for 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .271.
The Mariners are 21-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .905.
The Mariners are just 7-26 (.212) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .276 at home since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Red Sox are batting .260 against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Red Sox hitters have an OPS of .761 (514 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .708.
Red Sox hitters have drawn 20 walks in 345 PA’s (6%) in close and late situations this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
Mariners hitters are slugging just .155 on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .209.
Mariners hitters are slugging just .162 on pitches out of the zone since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .209.
The Mariners are batting just .303 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .341.
Mariners hitters are slugging just .146 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .217.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
The Red Sox have won 49% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
The Red Sox pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 90.3 MPH this season (1,432 balls in play) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 88.7
Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% with runners in scoring position over the last 14 days (14 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 20%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Red Sox pitchers this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Mariners pitchers since the start of 2020 — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Mariners pitchers since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 38% against Mariners pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 38% against Mariners pitchers over the last 14 days (12 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Mariners vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Kyle Lewis (Mariners): Concussion, D7
- Thomas Murphy (Mariners): Shoulder, D10
- Kenneth Giles (Mariners): Finger, D60
- Casey Sadler (Mariners): Shoulder, D60
- Evan White (Mariners): Sports Hernia, D60
- Mitchell Haniger (Mariners): Ankle, D10
- James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox): Hip, D15
- Enrique Hernández (Red Sox): Hip, D10
- Matthew Barnes (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Rib, D60
- Alex Verdugo (Red Sox): Knee, Day-to-Day
- Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60
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