Texas vs Tennessee Prediction, Odds & Best Bets Today – NCAAB, Jan. 28

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jan 28, 2023, 12:27 PM
  • #4 Tennessee (17-3) are -5.5 point favorites vs #10 Texas (17-3)
  • Total (Over/Under): 134.5 points
  • Watch the game on ESPN

The Texas Longhorns (17-3) visit Thompson-Boling Arena to take on the Tennessee Volunteers (17-3) on Jan. 28. Tip off is scheduled for 6:00pm EST in Knoxville.

Tennessee is the betting favorite in this game, with the spread sitting at -5.5 (-110).

The Texas vs. Tennessee Over/Under is 134.5 total points.

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Texas vs. Tennessee Odds, Spread, Over/Under

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Texas+5.5 -110O 134.5 -110+200
Tennessee -5.5 -110U 134.5 -110-250

Texas vs Tennessee Prediction for Today’s Game:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Tennessee will win this game with 60.7% confidence.

Texas vs Tennessee Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Texas will cover the spread with 51.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Texas and Tennessee, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


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  • Texas has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 13 of their last 17 away games (+9.70 Units / 52% ROI)
  • Texas has hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 38 games (+6.65 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Texas have covered the 1H Spread in 15 of their last 24 games (+5.05 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Texas has hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.00 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Tennessee have covered the Spread in 31 of their last 50 games (+10.10 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Tennessee have covered the 1H Spread in 22 of their last 35 games (+8.85 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Tennessee has hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 50 games (+7.95 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Tennessee has hit the 1H Moneyline in 22 of their last 30 games (+5.80 Units / 5% ROI)
  • Tennessee has hit the 1H Game Total Under in their last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 91% ROI)

Texas Basketball Against the Spread Record (ATS)

Texas has gone 8-12 against the spread this college basketball season (-5.2 Units / -23.74% ROI).

  • 10-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.35 Units / 6.86% ROI
  • 11-7 when betting the Over for +3.3 Units / 15% ROI
  • 7-11 when betting the Under for -5.1 Units / -23.18% ROI

Tennessee Basketball Against the Spread Record (ATS)

Tennessee has gone 12-8 against the spread this college basketball season (+3.2 Units / 14.55% ROI).

  • 10-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.7 Units / -15.49% ROI
  • 8-12 when betting the Over for -5.2 Units / -23.64% ROI
  • 12-8 when betting the Under for +3.2 Units / 14.55% ROI

Texas Offensive Stats & Trends:

Texas has a TS% of 51% in the second half this season — best among Big 12 Teams; League Avg: 48%

Texas averaged 4.8 turnovers per game (152 turnovers/32 games) in the second half last season — best among Big 12 Teams; League Avg: 6.2

Texas had an eFG% of 63% in possessions with at least six passes last season in conference play — best among Big 12 Teams; League Avg: 53%

Texas averaged 1.28 points per shot (429 points/335 shots) in possessions with at least three passes last season in conference play — best among Big 12 Teams; League Avg: 1.18

Tennessee Offensive Stats & Trends:

Tennessee has 669 assists at home since the start of the 2021-22 season — most among SEC Teams

Tennessee has averaged 17.5 assists per game (350 assists/20 games) this season — 5th best among Power 5 Conference teams; League Avg: 14.1

Tennessee has averaged 8.4 assists per game (460 assists/55 games) in the second half since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among SEC Teams; League Avg: 6.9

Tennessee has averaged 16.8 assists per game (926 assists/55 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among SEC Teams; League Avg: 13.8

Texas Defensive Stats & Trends:

Texas allowed opponents to shoot 57% on catch and shoot opportunities (12/21) on mid-range shots last season in conference play — highest among Big 12 Teams; League Avg: 38%

Texas allowed an average of 1.88 points per shot (60 points/32 shots) in possessions with at least six passes last season in conference play — highest among Big 12 Teams; League Avg: 1.25

Texas allowed opponents to shoot 37% from three off the dribble (14/38) in possessions with two passes or less last season in conference play — highest among Big 12 Teams; League Avg: 30%

Texas allowed opponents to shoot 46% from three off the dribble (13/28) in possessions with two to five passes last season in conference play — highest among Big 12 Teams; League Avg: 28%

Tennessee Defensive Stats & Trends:

Tennessee has averaged 9.5 steals per game (520 steals/55 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — 4th best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 6.7

Tennessee has averaged 9.7 steals per game (194 steals/20 games) this season — tied for 2nd best among Power 5 Conference teams; League Avg: 6.8

Tennessee has averaged 9.5 steals per game (520 steals/55 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — 2nd best among Power 5 Conference teams; League Avg: 6.8

Tennessee has 194 steals this season — 3rd most among Power 5 Conference teams


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.