Astros vs Braves Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Mar 15

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Mar 15, 2023, 10:49 AM
  • The Braves are -225 favorites vs the Astros
  • Astros starting pitcher: Bryan Garcia, 1.68 ERA
  • Braves starting pitcher: Spencer Strider, 1.08 ERA

The Houston Astros (+180) visit CoolToday Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-225) on Wednesday, March 15, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EDT in North Port.

The Braves are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-150).

The Astros vs Braves Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.

During Spring Training, the Astros are 6-3 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 5-7 ATS.

Astros vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Astros+1.5 +125O 8.5 -120+180
Braves -1.5 -150U 8.5 +100-225

Astros vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Wednesday‘s Spring Training matchup with 66.3% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Astros and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:

  • J.J. Matijevic has hit the Singles Over in his last 2 games (+3.45 Units / 173% ROI)
  • Christian Vazquez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 3 games (+3.30 Units / 70% ROI)
  • Christian Vazquez has hit the Singles Over in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 98% ROI)
  • J.J. Matijevic has hit the Hits Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 89% ROI)
  • Kyle Tucker has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 74% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Travis d’Arnaud has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 4 games (+4.05 Units / 80% ROI)
  • Eddie Rosario has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 37% ROI)
  • William Contreras has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Marcell Ozuna has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.10 Units / 86% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 96 of their last 162 games (+33.65 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 100 of their last 173 games (+31.20 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 102 of their last 162 games (+30.75 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 110 of their last 159 games (+28.25 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 86 of their last 156 games (+18.65 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 86 of their last 140 games (+23.04 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 79 of their last 116 games (+22.00 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 77 of their last 133 games (+21.60 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 53 games at home (+11.90 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 37 of their last 61 games (+9.10 Units / 12% ROI)

Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 7-5 against the Run Line (+1.55 Units / 10.47% ROI).

  • 6-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.55 Units / 15.74% ROI
  • 4-8 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.95 Units / -36.8% ROI
  • 8-4 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.7 Units / 28.57% ROI

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 5-7 against the Run Line (-2.85 Units / -19.39% ROI).

  • 5-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.2 Units / -7.23% ROI
  • 8-4 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.75 Units / 28.52% ROI
  • 4-8 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.75 Units / -35.71% ROI

No Matchup notes for this Game

Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents had a miss rate of 41% (69/168) against Spencer Strider on the first pitch of at-bats last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 99th Percentile.

Spencer Strider struck out 44% (111/251) of right-handed batters he faced last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.

58% of Spencer Strider’s strikeouts came on 97+ MPH fastballs last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.

Spencer Strider had a strikeout rate of 38% (202/528) last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 99th Percentile.

Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

The Astros are 15-7 (.682) when tied entering the 7th inning last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Astros are 88-5 (.946) when leading entering the 8th inning last season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.

The Astros are 51-30 (.630) on the road last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .468.

The Astros are 49-7 (.875) when hitting 2 or more home runs last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .707.

Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Astros

The Braves are 11-3 (.786) when tied entering the 7th inning last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Braves are 59-12 (.831) when hitting 2 or more home runs last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .707.

The Braves are 36-5 (.878) when scoring in the first inning last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .664.

The Braves are 9-4 (.692) when tied entering the 8th inning last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Astros hitters struck out just 321 times in 1,850 PA’s (17%) against LHP last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Astros hitters have just 701 strikeouts in 3,931 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Astros hitters have just 2,401 strikeouts in 12,345 PA’s (19%) since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

The Astros are batting .189 with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .168.

Braves hitters slugged .443 against RHP last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .393.

Braves hitters slugged .486 on pitches 95 mph or greater last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .383.

Braves hitters had an OPS of .837 (1,216 PA’s) on pitches 95 mph or greater last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .713.

Braves hitters had an OPS of .753 (4,444 PA’s) against RHP last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.

Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 27% of their games last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Astros pitchers had a strikeout rate of 26% last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Astros pitchers had an ERA of 2.89 (1445.1 IP) last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 3.97.

Astros pitchers had a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Braves pitchers had a strikeout rate of 26% last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Opponents had a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .185 against Braves pitchers with the shift last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .221.

Braves pitchers had a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Braves vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Atlanta Braves – No Injuries Reported
  • Houston Astros – No Injuries Reported

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.