- The Astros are -125 favorites vs the Mariners
- Astros starting pitcher: Jonathan France
- Mariners starting pitcher: Marco Gonzales
- Watch the game on ROOT Sports NW
The Houston Astros (-125) visit T-Mobile Park to take on the Seattle Mariners (+105) on Saturday, May 6, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in Seattle.
The Astros are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Astros vs Mariners Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Astros are 17-15 against the spread (ATS), while the Mariners are 15-17 ATS.
Astros vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | -1.5 +135 | O 8.5 -105 | -125 |
| Mariners | +1.5 -160 | U 8.5 -115 | +105 |
Astros vs Mariners Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 61.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Astros and Mariners and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:
- Alex Bregman has hit the Total Bases Under in 25 of his last 32 games (+14.10 Units / 26% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Runs Over in 19 of his last 31 games (+13.20 Units / 42% ROI)
- Jose Abreu has hit the Total Bases Under in 21 of his last 27 games (+11.55 Units / 25% ROI)
- Mauricio Dubon has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 11 away games (+11.20 Units / 102% ROI)
- David Hensley has hit the Singles Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 65% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jarred Kelenic has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+11.85 Units / 30% ROI)
- Jarred Kelenic has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+11.80 Units / 30% ROI)
- AJ Pollock has hit the Singles Under in his last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 67% ROI)
- Jarred Kelenic has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+9.25 Units / 31% ROI)
- Ty France has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+9.00 Units / 43% ROI)
Mariners vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -600 |
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -650 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Kolten Wong | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
Mariners vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Jose Abreu | 1.5 +175 | 1.5 -250 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
| Kolten Wong | 0.5 -125 | 0.5 -105 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
Mariners vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -375 |
| Kolten Wong | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -375 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -225 |
Mariners vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marco Gonzales | 3.5 -110 | 3.5 -115 |
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 21 games (+8.35 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 away games (+7.20 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 11 away games (+7.20 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Over in 9 of their last 12 away games (+5.90 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.95 Units / 50% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 9 of their last 14 games at home (+4.40 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 14 games at home (+4.30 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games at home (+3.75 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.40 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 6 games (+2.15 Units / 32% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 17-15 against the Run Line (+0.5 Units / 1.17% ROI).
- 17-15 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.95 Units / -12.57% ROI
- 17-14 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.85 Units / 5.26% ROI
- 14-17 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.45 Units / -12.61% ROI
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 15-17 against the Run Line (-2.8 Units / -6.96% ROI).
- 15-17 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.05 Units / -11.2% ROI
- 16-15 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.85 Units / -2.35% ROI
- 15-16 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.3 Units / -6.68% ROI
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
No Matchup notes for this Game
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Marco Gonzales has a strikeout rate of just 30% (122 SO in 410 PAs) with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: 42% — first Percentile.
Marco Gonzales has thrown his off-speed pitches for a strike 76% (163/216) of the time this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: 62% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 16% (100/610) against Marco Gonzales since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: 24% — third Percentile.
Marco Gonzales has an average fastball velocity of just 88.4 MPH this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: 93.4 — first Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Astros are 41-20 (.672) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .404.
The Astros are 60-34 (.638) on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .469.
The Astros are 98-8 (.925) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .877.
The Astros are 8-52 (.133) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — tied for 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .123.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Mariners are 2-12 (.143) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .047.
The Mariners are 8-78 (.093) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .046.
The Mariners are 34-14 (.708) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Mariners are 3-11 (.214) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .143.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 749 strikeouts in 4,234 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have just 369 strikeouts in 2,153 PA’s (17%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Astros are 41-20 (.672) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .404.
Astros hitters have put just 33% of balls in play to the right side of the field since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
Mariners hitters have an OBP of just .266 (289 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .325.
The Mariners are batting just .218 at home since the 2021 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Mariners hitters have an OBP of just .213 (141 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .327.
The Mariners are batting just .201 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .255.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
The Astros pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 32% of their games on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 28% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Mariners pitchers have walked 26 of 436 batters (6%) over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Mariners pitchers this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Mariners have won just just 0% of the time this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 40% against Mariners pitchers in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Mariners vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Easton McGee (Mariners): Forearm, D15
- Andrés Muñoz (Mariners): Deltoid, D15
- Robert Ray (Mariners): Flexor, D15
- Dylan Moore (Mariners): Olique, D10
- Evan White (Mariners): Adductor, D60
- Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Elbow, D15
- Jose Altuve (Astros): Thumb, D10
- Luis Garcia (Astros): Elbow, D15
- Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D10
- José Urquidy (Astros): Shoulder, D15
- Parker Mushinski (Astros): Spine, D15
- Chas McCormick (Astros): Back, D10
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