- The Astros are -130 favorites vs the Marlins
- Astros starting pitcher: Cristian Javier, 0.00 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Edward Cabrera, 1.80 ERA
- Watch the game on BSFL
The Houston Astros (-130) visit Roger Dean Stadium to take on the Miami Marlins (+110) on Sunday, March 19, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in Jupiter.
The Astros are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+115).
The Astros vs Marlins Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Astros are 8-5 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 4-11 ATS.
Astros vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | -1.5 +115 | O 8.5 -120 | -130 |
| Marlins | +1.5 -135 | U 8.5 +100 | +110 |
Astros vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Sunday‘s Spring Training matchup with 56.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Astros and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Astros vs Marlins and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:
- J.J. Matijevic has hit the Singles Over in his last 2 games (+3.45 Units / 173% ROI)
- Christian Vazquez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 3 games (+3.30 Units / 70% ROI)
- Christian Vazquez has hit the Singles Over in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 98% ROI)
- J.J. Matijevic has hit the Hits Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 89% ROI)
- Kyle Tucker has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 74% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Avisail Garcia has hit the RBIs Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- Peyton Burdick has hit the Singles Over in his last 3 games at home (+5.45 Units / 182% ROI)
- Jordan Groshans has hit the Singles Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+4.50 Units / 56% ROI)
- Brian Anderson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 88% ROI)
- Jordan Groshans has hit the Hits Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+2.75 Units / 23% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 96 of their last 162 games (+33.65 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 100 of their last 173 games (+31.20 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 102 of their last 162 games (+30.75 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 110 of their last 159 games (+28.25 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 86 of their last 156 games (+18.65 Units / 10% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 62 of their last 95 games (+23.95 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 50 of their last 90 games (+14.55 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 16 games (+13.90 Units / 69% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 23 games (+11.50 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 27 games at home (+10.70 Units / 33% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 9-7 against the Run Line (+1.85 Units / 9.49% ROI).
- 8-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.45 Units / 11.56% ROI
- 6-10 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.1 Units / -28.81% ROI
- 10-6 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.4 Units / 19.43% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 4-11 against the Run Line (-9.25 Units / -49.6% ROI).
- 4-10 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.55 Units / -41.37% ROI
- 4-9 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.9 Units / -35.76% ROI
- 9-4 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.55 Units / 27.41% ROI
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed batters are hitting just .151 (68-for-451) against Cristian Javier since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .246 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .092 (53-for-573) against Cristian Javier with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .165 — 99th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 27% (68/250) against Cristian Javier in two-strike counts since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 0 Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting just .143 (76-for-530) against Cristian Javier since the start of 2020 — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 191 total IP; League Avg: .247 — 100th Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a line drive rate of just 18% (32/174) versus Edward Cabrera last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 99th Percentile.
Edward Cabrera allowed a BABIP of .207 last season — tied for best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .289 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents batted just .177 (44-for-249) against Edward Cabrera last season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .244 — 98th Percentile.
Edward Cabrera threw his changeup 33% of the time (399/1,215) last season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total CH; League Avg: 15% — 96th Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Astros are 15-7 (.682) when tied entering the 7th inning last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Astros are 88-5 (.946) when leading entering the 8th inning last season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Astros are 51-30 (.630) on the road last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .468.
The Astros are 49-7 (.875) when hitting 2 or more home runs last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .707.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Marlins are just 30-88 (.254) when scoring 4 or fewer runs last season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.
The Marlins are just 9-38 (.191) when allowing 2 or more home runs last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .293.
The Marlins are just 9-53 (.145) when allowing 5 or more runs last season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .195.
The Marlins are just 8-14 (.364) when tied entering the 8th inning last season — tied for 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters struck out just 321 times in 1,850 PA’s (17%) against LHP last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have just 701 strikeouts in 3,931 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have just 2,401 strikeouts in 12,345 PA’s (19%) since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Astros are batting .189 with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have 830 strikeouts in 3,012 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Marlins hitters are slugging just .346 against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .407.
Marlins hitters had an OBP of just .273 (1,316 PA’s) against LHP last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .315.
Marlins hitters have 978 strikeouts in 3,630 PA’s (27%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 27% of their games last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Astros pitchers had a strikeout rate of 26% last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros pitchers had an ERA of 2.89 (1445.1 IP) last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 3.97.
Astros pitchers had a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the start of the 2021 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers had a strikeout rate of 24% with runners in scoring position last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
The Marlins have won just 25% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Marlins vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Houston Astros – No Injuries Reported
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