- The Astros are -130 favorites vs the Marlins
- Astros starting pitcher: Cristian Javier, 0.00 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Edward Cabrera, 1.80 ERA
- Watch the game on BSFL
The Houston Astros (-130) visit Roger Dean Stadium to take on the Miami Marlins (+110) on Sunday, March 19, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in Jupiter.
The Astros are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+115).
The Astros vs Marlins Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Astros are 8-5 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 4-11 ATS.
Astros vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
Astros | -1.5 +115 | O 8.5 -120 | -130 |
Marlins | +1.5 -135 | U 8.5 +100 | +110 |
Astros vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Sunday‘s Spring Training matchup with 56.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Astros and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:
- J.J. Matijevic has hit the Singles Over in his last 2 games (+3.45 Units / 173% ROI)
- Christian Vazquez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 3 games (+3.30 Units / 70% ROI)
- Christian Vazquez has hit the Singles Over in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 98% ROI)
- J.J. Matijevic has hit the Hits Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 89% ROI)
- Kyle Tucker has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 74% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Avisail Garcia has hit the RBIs Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- Peyton Burdick has hit the Singles Over in his last 3 games at home (+5.45 Units / 182% ROI)
- Jordan Groshans has hit the Singles Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+4.50 Units / 56% ROI)
- Brian Anderson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 88% ROI)
- Jordan Groshans has hit the Hits Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+2.75 Units / 23% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 96 of their last 162 games (+33.65 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 100 of their last 173 games (+31.20 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 102 of their last 162 games (+30.75 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 110 of their last 159 games (+28.25 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 86 of their last 156 games (+18.65 Units / 10% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 62 of their last 95 games (+23.95 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 50 of their last 90 games (+14.55 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 16 games (+13.90 Units / 69% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 23 games (+11.50 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 27 games at home (+10.70 Units / 33% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 9-7 against the Run Line (+1.85 Units / 9.49% ROI).
- 8-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.45 Units / 11.56% ROI
- 6-10 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.1 Units / -28.81% ROI
- 10-6 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.4 Units / 19.43% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 4-11 against the Run Line (-9.25 Units / -49.6% ROI).
- 4-10 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.55 Units / -41.37% ROI
- 4-9 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.9 Units / -35.76% ROI
- 9-4 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.55 Units / 27.41% ROI
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed batters are hitting just .151 (68-for-451) against Cristian Javier since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .246 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .092 (53-for-573) against Cristian Javier with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .165 — 99th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 27% (68/250) against Cristian Javier in two-strike counts since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 0 Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting just .143 (76-for-530) against Cristian Javier since the start of 2020 — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 191 total IP; League Avg: .247 — 100th Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a line drive rate of just 18% (32/174) versus Edward Cabrera last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 99th Percentile.
Edward Cabrera allowed a BABIP of .207 last season — tied for best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .289 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents batted just .177 (44-for-249) against Edward Cabrera last season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .244 — 98th Percentile.
Edward Cabrera threw his changeup 33% of the time (399/1,215) last season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total CH; League Avg: 15% — 96th Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Astros are 15-7 (.682) when tied entering the 7th inning last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Astros are 88-5 (.946) when leading entering the 8th inning last season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Astros are 51-30 (.630) on the road last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .468.
The Astros are 49-7 (.875) when hitting 2 or more home runs last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .707.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Marlins are just 30-88 (.254) when scoring 4 or fewer runs last season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.
The Marlins are just 9-38 (.191) when allowing 2 or more home runs last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .293.
The Marlins are just 9-53 (.145) when allowing 5 or more runs last season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .195.
The Marlins are just 8-14 (.364) when tied entering the 8th inning last season — tied for 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters struck out just 321 times in 1,850 PA’s (17%) against LHP last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have just 701 strikeouts in 3,931 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have just 2,401 strikeouts in 12,345 PA’s (19%) since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Astros are batting .189 with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have 830 strikeouts in 3,012 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Marlins hitters are slugging just .346 against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .407.
Marlins hitters had an OBP of just .273 (1,316 PA’s) against LHP last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .315.
Marlins hitters have 978 strikeouts in 3,630 PA’s (27%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 27% of their games last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Astros pitchers had a strikeout rate of 26% last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros pitchers had an ERA of 2.89 (1445.1 IP) last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 3.97.
Astros pitchers had a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the start of the 2021 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers had a strikeout rate of 24% with runners in scoring position last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
The Marlins have won just 25% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Marlins vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Houston Astros – No Injuries Reported
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