ATP Rotterdam Betting Preview: Karatsev (-145) vs Griekspoor

It’s certainly a big week for NFL betting lines, as every football fan you know will spend most of this week checking and rechecking the Super Bowl betting odds. 

However, the tennis betting season is a year-long grind, with tournaments sprinkled throughout the calendar from January through November. Fortunately, the tennis odds have blessed us with a quality betting opportunity on Tuesday that I’m excited to throw some units at.

You’ve got all week to finalize your two or three best Super Bowl prop bets. So put those running back stats down for just a second or two, and take a short trip with me to the Netherlands for this tennis betting hidden gem.

Tennis Odds: Aslan Karatsev (-145) vs. Tallon Griekspoor at ATP Rotterdam

You could be forgiven for thinking that Aslan Karatsev vs. Tallon Griekspoor was some sort of shared universe showdown pitting a magical lion with resurrection powers against a night elf from Kalimdor. 

I assure you, dear reader, that this is an actual tennis match featuring actual tennis players.

And not just any two players – these guys are legitimate tour threats. Karatsev has worked his way to a top-20 ranking thanks in part to a strong opening to the 2021 season. He exploded into the hardcourt opening with a deep run at the ‘21 Australian Open, eliminating three top-20 players and making it all the way to the semifinal round before losing to eventual champion Novak Djokovic. 

Karatsev followed up his Aussie showing with a tournament win at ATP Dubai in March – a championship that included four consecutive top-40 scalps. A month later, he avenged his loss to No. 1 Djokovic on Serbian soil, topping him in three sets in the ATP Belgrade semifinals. 

In short, Karatsev was the hottest player on tour last spring. He opened the year ranked No. 114; he closed at No. 18. 

But Karatsev hasn’t had the same hot open to 2022 that he did last year. Last month, he won a tune-up tournament in Sydney prior to the Australian Open. In Melbourne, he struggled to put away No. 71 Jaume Munar in the first round before ultimately being bounced by No. 69 Adrian Mannarino in the third round. 

Following the Australian Open, he received a first-round bye at ATP Pune, in India, only to flame out in straight sets to Swedish youngster Elias Ymer in the second round. Ymer’s ranking: 163.

Tennis swings can be dramatic, and Karatsev seems to have lost his form in a major way. 

Even if Karatsev was playing well, Tallon Griekspoor would be a dangerous opponent. The Dutch native is just one or two good wins away from cracking the ATP top 50, and at ATP Rotterdam, he’ll be playing with the full throat of a home crowd. 

Griekspoor has impressed early this year, even in losses. He’s notched wins against notable opponents like Dominik Koepfer (Rk 54), Alexei Popyrin (Rk 61) and Fabio Fognini (Rk 32) – all in Australia. 

Discarding a walkover in Melbourne, his two losses were both extremely tight affairs. He bowed out of the Australian Open with a five set loss to Pablo Carreno Busta (Rk 21), 3-6, 7-6, 6-7, 6-3, 4-6. Last week, he played Alexander Bublik (Rk 35) to a virtual draw in France, losing 6-7, 6-7.

Karatsev is vulnerable here, and the tennis odds are actually the biggest clue. A hard court player with Karatsev’s rank, seed and resume should be a healthy favorite over a player outside the top 60 like Griekspoor, yet Karatsev is an extremely modest – some might even say square bait – favorite of -145. 

Tennis betting novices shouldn’t be fooled by an easy payout here. It’s tempting to pop in on weekday mornings and try to make a little return on short favorites, but there’s a reason this line is so short. 

Back Griekspoor to pull the upset on his home turf.

Bet: Tallon Griekspoor +110