Carlos Alcaraz Has No Rivals In Front of Him as 2026 US Open Draws Near

The U.S. Open draw will be revealed tomorrow at noon. But you don’t have to wait for every last player’s path to be publicized in order to know who the favorite is to win this year’s final Slam.

For more than a year now, the ATP has revolved around one key matchup: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Jannik Sinner. Since the beginning of 2025, the pair have faced off seven times and accounted for three Slam championship matches.

However, there’s been a pause in the rivalry over the last few months, as Alcaraz suffered a wrist injury during the first half of the clay season in April. Since then, the former world No. 1 and reigning U.S. Open champion has been rehabbing, targeting a return for the summer American swing.

As Alcaraz inched closer to a healthy status, BetMGM’s U.S. Open tennis odds priced him as the favorite to win the tournament.

Alcaraz is often shorthanded as a great clay player, but this is an oversimplification. Alcaraz has an all-around game and excels on slower courts. Flushing might not be Roland Garros, but it is a far slower court than both Wimbledon and the Australian Open. This helps explain why Alcaraz has won two of the last three US Open men’s singles titles. 

Thus, Alcaraz was tapped by the market as the tennis betting favorite for the upcoming tournament. And while he was a rightful favorite, a rehabbing Alcaraz who hasn’t played tour-level tennis in several months could be beaten – even on friendly turf. Hypothetically, Sinner could ultimately have the upper hand on Alcaraz in a potential 18th head-to-head bout. 

But then came the news last week that Sinner was withdrawing from the U.S. Open to rehab his right knee – surely a wear-and-tear injury after playing deep into tournaments for more than a year straight. Once Alcaraz was in for Flushing, it was also clear that a less-than-100% Sinner would need to sit out.

With Alcaraz’s chief rival off the board, the Spaniard should be considered a heavy favorite to defend his U.S. Open title. Yet as of this writing, Alcaraz is “only” +170 to win. French Open champ Alexander Zverev, who won Roland Garros in the conspicuous vacuum left by Alcaraz’s absence, is +300. He hasn’t won his quarter in five years – let alone the tournament – in five years.

Of course, risk of reinjury is always a concern. But Alcaraz appears to have been pretty conservative in returning to the court, suggesting he’s healthy and ready to play at Flushing. He’s also playing mixed doubles with Serena Williams right now, which is a risk his team probably wouldn’t be comfortable with if he wasn’t healthy. 

With Sinner gone from the draw, and Zverev a clearly inferior challenger on the US Open hardcourt, it’s fair to consider this draw as an Alcaraz vs. the Field situation. At +170, there’s still some real value in betting on Alcaraz to defend his title.