With Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz Both Gone, Who’s Favored to Win the Cincinnati Masters?

The Cincinnati Open begins this week, with play scheduled to continue through the end of next weekend. Both the men’s and women’s tours will converge in Ohio, with major tour points on the line ahead of this month’s U.S. Open.

And that’s to say nothing of the Cincinnati Open prize money, which totals several million dollars.

As an ATP 1000 event, Cincinnati is a major event on the tour calendar. In this era of tennis, that means Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz are the automatic favorites to win, and everyone else is just happy to be included.

Think I’m being overly dramatic? From January 2025 through June 2026, there were 14 ATP Masters 1000 tournaments. Sinner won six; Alcaraz won three. The entire rest of the professional men’s tennis tour combined to win five. 

Thus, Sinner and Alcaraz are the favorites.

Or at least, they would be. Alcaraz has been dealing with a wrist injury since clay season that’s held him out of major tournaments, and his team was targeting Cincinnati for a return. Regrettably, Alcaraz had to withdraw from Cincinnati, as he just didn’t feel ready to play. Or, perhaps he does feel OK, but he wants to be extra careful with the U.S. Open right around the corner.

Now, with Cincinnati set to begin first-round matches on Thursday, Sinner has also withdrawn, citing inflammation in his right knee. He, too, is playing it safe with Flushing Meadows just a couple of weeks away.

The absence of both Alcaraz and Sinner begs an obvious question.

Who’s Favored to Win the Cincinnati Open With Alcaraz and Sinner Out?

At BetMGM, Alexander Zverev is the tennis betting favorite to win the Cincinnati Masters ahead of the first round. He’s +400 as of Thursday morning.

Other top pre-draw contenders include Novak Djokovic (+600), Taylor Fritz (+800), Ben Shelton (+900), and Rafael Jodar (+1400), according to the online sportsbook.

Cincinnati Masters Analysis: ATP Odds and Draw

It’s safe to assume Zverev has gotten the nod here as the favorite because of what he did in Paris in June. With Sinner upset and Alcaraz sidelined – a similar situation to now – Zverev capitalized at Roland Garros and seized the opportunity to win his first Slam.

But there are a lot of differences between then and now. For one, Zverev is now playing on American hardcourt – not clay – which is arguably his “worst” surface. (Emphasis added, since it’s all pretty relative – Zverev has a good all-court game.)

Zverev also hasn’t won a match on tour in over a month. After playing Sinner in the Wimbledon final, he took a month off. 

This isn’t unusual, since most top tour players take time off after London. But when Zverev returned for Montreal, he lost to Tallon Griekspoor in his first match.

Is he now suddenly ready to run the table in Cincinnati, after what was likely a month of hard-earned partying to celebrate the Slam championship breakthrough?

If I’m getting involved in the Cincinnati futures, Zverev isn’t the play for me here. If anything, I’m looking to bet against him in early matches.

Shelton is a name to avoid, too, after the top American sustained arm and hand injuries this week in Montreal. I wouldn’t be surprised if he wins the National Bank Open championship, then withdraws from Cincinnati to rest up for the U.S. Open. 

In my opinion, this looks like Rafael Jodar’s moment. At 14-to-1, Jodar offers a great blend of value and top-end skill. I like him to break through in a Cincinnati field that’s considerably weaker than it looked a month ago.