First-Set Tennis Betting Strategy Guide: How to Effectively Target Odds for Tiebreaks and Long Sets

The tennis betting market is the No. 1 place I am successful in online sports betting. I draw on court differences, player details, and market inefficiencies to find strong betting targets.

It also helps that the ATP schedule is pretty much year-round.

In 2023, I did an hour-long podcast for The Lion’s Edge explaining the basic principles of my tennis handicapping approach. I also wrote them down in my definitive BetMGM tennis betting guide for beginners, so that what I do can be replicated by other aspiring bettors with a little bit of practice.

That tennis guide is one of the most popular things I’ve ever written. Lion’s Edge is now a dead show, but hundreds of people still find that episode every month and listen. 

Clearly, there is an appetite for effective tennis betting strategies. And with that in mind, I’ve spent much of the last year tinkering with a new strategy: Is there a way to accurately predict a first-set tiebreaker?

What Is a First-Set Total and Why Are They Interesting For Bettors?

Even if you’re not familiar with tennis odds in general, you probably can intuit the basic tennis straight bet: Two players are about to play – which of them do you think will win?

A first-set total is a totally different kind of bet. Instead of betting on the outcome of the match, bettors predict the number of games played in the first set. 

Most often, this number is something like 10.5, and bettors must bet over or under the number. If Player A wins the first set 6-4, that would cash an under bet. If the set goes to a tiebreak, or Player B wins it 7-5, that would cash an over bet.

The winner of the match – or even what happens after the first set – is irrelevant.

At first, betting on first sets might seem arbitrary. But if you watch enough tennis, patterns start to emerge.

Imagine your first day of work at your current job, or the last time you played a pickup basketball game. Even if you’re excited to jump into the deep end of these scenarios, you likely started slow so that you could feel out the environment. 

Once you’re more confident about how to accomplish a new job task, or which pickup player is the weak defensive link, you might ramp up your energy and take bigger risks and bolder actions.

The opening set of a tennis match is a lot like that. Players are often feeling each other out and playing tight service games, taking care not to play uphill on the wrong side of a break so early in a match. This is especially true for Grand Slam matches, or even late-stage matches at random tournaments throughout the year.

I have been hunting for matches that are likely to play to a first-set over, which means I’m typically looking for a game that will be tied 5-5, with no breaks of serve, going into that 11th game of the first set. That guarantees a win on an Over 10.5.

About 20% of all sets will go to a tiebreaker, but that doesn’t mean their appearance is randomly distributed. In my careful observation of the tennis world, there are certain details I believe make a first-set over much more likely to manifest itself.

So when hunting for these bets, keep in mind the following:

Men’s Tennis Is King for First-Set Overs 

As a general rule, I prefer to bet on women’s tennis. Because of the lower serving power, there are more breaks, more upsets, and more underdog tickets cashing. This is especially true for live tennis odds, where there are incredible inefficiencies to be found.

That said, when it comes to expecting long, drawn-out first sets, the ATP tour is where you want to be. Service holds are what we want, and that’s just more consistent in men’s tennis. 

Track the Biggest Servers on Tour

In tennis parlance, there is a kind of player known as a servebot. This is a player who has an elite, dialed-in first serve that piles up aces with unreturnable balls. 

John Isner is a classic example from the 2000s and 2010s.

For first-set overs, these players are awesome. They rely heavily on the dominance of their own service game, and they often have weak return games, which props up the other player’s service game, too. Tiebreaker, ahoy!

If two of these players are going head-to-head, the first-set over absolutely has to be a top-line consideration for bettors. 

Some current ATP tour players on this list include Reilly Opelka, Hubert Hurkacz, Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, Matteo Berrettini, Alexander Zverev, and Taylor Fritz, among others.

Target Evenly Matched Players

A top 30 tour player in a first-round match against a qualifier is probably not likely to spawn a first-round tiebreaker. Instead, look for a late-week match between two players of roughly equal skill, which could lead to more cautious and conservative play in the early going.

Head-to-Head History Is a Huge Tell

While we’re profiling player matchups, don’t neglect to investigate the head-to-head history of two players about to face off. 

Individual player style is often a large and repeatable factor in specific matchups. So if two players have a history of reaching tiebreaks, there’s a great chance that their next set will be a tiebreak again. 

They’re not correlated outcomes in the traditional betting sense, but they are related because of the underlying play factors.

Never Blind Bet Anything – Always Consider Player Form

Lots of historical player data can help decide when to bet, but don’t forget to factor in a player’s recent form. 

A player that’s normally a great server, but is in a seven-week funk of playing terribly, is not a good bet for anything, including a first-set total. 

Pay Attention to Court Composition

I talk about this a lot in my tennis guide, but it’s worth repeating here for novice tennis bettors. Not every court plays the same, and knowing that is a big factor in tennis betting writ large.

Clay is a slower style that emphasizes volleying. Hardcourts are quicker than clay, but not as fast as grass. For big servers, grass courts are a huge advantage because the ball moves fast and doesn’t bounce very high off the surface of the court. 

Even among courts of the same type, there are differences. The Australian Open’s hardcourt in January plays much faster than the U.S. Open’s hardcourt in September. Indoor courts will often play faster than outdoor courts.

When hunting for first-set overs, faster courts are better. That means the spring is a general no-fly zone, and Wimbledon is the holy grail.

First Set Tennis Betting Strategy: Notes to Remember

• Target the ATP men’s tour
• Track the biggest servers
• Stick to grass or hardcourt – particularly indoor hardcourt
• Look for late-week matches between more evenly matched players
• Head-to-head record can be illuminating
• Always consider form