3 Picks For the ATP Italian Open Round of 16

The Italian Open gets serious this week, as the 2026 Internazionali BNL d’Italia draw marches toward a midweek quarterfinal.

As the fourth round (Round of 16) gets underway on Tuesday, I’m considering three tennis betting opportunities from the men’s draw.

Lorenzo Musetti vs. Casper Ruud Prediction

Lorenzo Musetti just got one of the best clay wins of his career on Sunday with a two-set win over Francisco Cerundolo. So it’s kind of telling that Musetti – on his home court in Rome, no less – is a +145 dog to Casper Ruud on Tuesday.

Ruud has been to multiple French Open championship rounds and has generally been one of the top clay players on tour for the last few years. He’s 7-2 on the dirt this year and 92-29 since the beginning of 2022.

Ruud is smoking people this clay season, and the opponents haven’t only been scrubs, either. His 6-3, 6-4 win over Jiri Lehecka on Sunday was a legit top-15 win. He’s dropped only two sets since the beginning of April.

I like Ruud to continue his strong clay form and seize control on his preferred surface. The -190 moneyline price is a perfectly fine way to attack this game, for those who don’t mind betting big tennis numbers. But for those who prefer a stronger return, the 2-0 match win offers a friendlier +120 buy point.

Prediction: Ruud Wins In Straight Sets (+120)

Karen Khachanov vs. Dino Prizmic Prediction

Here’s something you don’t see every day: A fourth-round match where a qualifier is playing as the favorite over a seeded player.

That’s the situation in this Tuesday match between 20-year-old Croat Dino Prizmic and tour staple Karen Khachanov, who turns 30 next week.

Khachanov isn’t really known as a clay player, which is the case for most Russian men. In fact, his Friday win over Alexander Shevchenko was his first clay win since the second round of last year’s French Open. So generally speaking, Khachanov’s presence in the fourth round of a major clay draw is a bit past its expiration date.

Prizmic is the likely corrective. He’s 42-11 on clay since the start of 2025 and is coming off a Madrid appearance where he similarly played his way out of the qualifier’s bracket and into the middle rounds of the tournament. He’s ranked inside the ATP top 80 for the first time in his career.

Prizmic’s skill as a volleyer and current hot form make him an obvious favorite for this match, which makes his -180 price a reasonable one. Here, the best alternative market entry is Prizmic’s games spread, where you can lay 3.5 games for +130. A 6-4, 6-4 win would get the job done on both bets.

Prediction: Dino Prizmic -180; Dino Prizmic -3.5 (+130)

Rafael Jodar vs. Learner Tien Prediction

Rafael Jodar is one of the hottest players on tour right now, ripping off a 14-2 clay record since his first match at Grand Prix Hassan II on March 31. The only losses were to Jannik Sinner and Arthur Fils.

The question here isn’t whether or not Jodar will win. Instead, the question is how much distance will Jodar create in his near-inevitable victory over hardcourt specialist Learner Tien, who’s been trending down since his Australian Open run in January.

I would consider a ladder approach to his games spreads to cover as much as the upper distribution tail as possible.

Prediction: Rafael Jodar -4.5 (-110); Rafael Jodar -5.5 (+154)

Italian Open Best Bets: Round of 16

• Casper Ruud Wins 2-0 (+120)
• Dino Prizmic -180
• Rafael Jodar -4.5 (-110)