3 Picks For the ATP Madrid Open’s Round of 16

The Madrid Open men’s draw moves into its fourth round on Tuesday, with the quarterfinals to follow a day or two after that.

If you’re following the market for this major clay tournament in Europe, you already know that Jannik Sinner’s odds to win Madrid are quite short. With Carlos Alcaraz currently hurt and not playing in one of his local draws, it’s Sinner’s tournament to lose.

But Sinner’s presumed coronation doesn’t mean there aren’t other strong tennis betting opportunities sprinkled throughout the rest of the draw. With the quarters on the horizon, these are three bets I’d consider in the men’s Round of 16. 

Arthus Fils vs. Tomas Etcheverry Prediction

It’s a shame that most of the US will be asleep when this match begins around 5:15 a.m. ET, since it has the potential to be one of the 10 best contests of the entire clay season. 

Arthur Fils is one of the hottest players on tour right now, which explains his juicy -350 price. But Etcheverry is dangerous on clay and played multiple Golden Swing tournaments this year, reaching the semifinals at both Buenos Aires and Rio. This will be his 20th match on dirt since Feb. 9. 

Fils is 18-3 since crashing out of the first round at Rotterdam in February. That includes a title in Barcelona, where neither Sinner nor Alcaraz played. So an Etcheverry bet is really a bet to thread the needle on timing Fils’ tour apex.

Instead of trying to weigh in on a side here, I’d rather take a different approach. I think this match probably goes the distance, with Etcheverry at least taking a set off of Fils. I would take a swing at the sets prop with a nice fat plus number attached. 

Prediction: Match Goes Three Sets +160

Lorenzo Musetti vs. Jiri Lehecka Prediction

This price feels a bit like name/ranking bias. Musetti might be clinging to his top-10 ranking right now, but the Italian hasn’t been healthy this year, suffering a leg injury (possibly an abductor tear) in Melbourne and a right arm injury ahead of Miami. He took most of February and March off.

So far, he hasn’t faced much resistance in Spain, including earlier this month in Barcelona. Fils played him 10 days ago in the Barcelona quarterfinal and eliminated him in straight sets.

Lehecka isn’t as hot as Fils right now – almost no one is – but he’s still playing pretty well. Lehecka lost 4-6, 4-6 to Sinner in the Miami championship, and it might be the best losing performance any men’s tour player has had all year. He’s in form and has the volley game to hang with Musetti on clay. I like the plus number. 

Prediction: Jiri Lehecka +135

Casper Ruud vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas Prediction

Stefanos Tsitsipas became a big name in men’s tennis on his way to an ATP No. 3 ranking in 2023. But the Greek star has been on the mend from a serious back injury over the last two years, and he just doesn’t have the same top-line ability to compete in major tournaments that he did in the early 2020s. 

The fact that Tsitsipas has strung some wins together in Madrid is great for his long-term competitive prospects – this is the first time he’s reached the fourth round of a tournament since 2025 Indian Wells! But beating up on second-rate players or hardcourt specialists is a very different prospect than beating a top clay player.

Ruud is in that class of top tour players, at least while they’re playing on dirt. The two-time French Open finalist simply has better form and fitness than Tsitsipas right now, and so I expect him to end this Tsitsipas run relatively quickly. 

Prediction: Casper Ruud Wins 2-0 (-110)

Madrid Open Best Bets: Round of 16 

• Fils/Etcheverry Over 2.5 Sets (+160)
• Jiri Lehecka +135
• Casper Ruud Wins 2-0 (-110)