The Wimbledon draws will be revealed in two days, which means it’s time to start seriously thinking about those Wimbledon betting odds.
But as any tennis bettor in the online sports betting world can tell you, handicapping Wimbledon comes with unique calendar challenges. The grass season is very brief; it really just encompasses the latter part of June, following the end of the spring clay season and culminating with the Wimbledon championships.
Because grass tennis is very fast and clay tennis is quite slow, there is often a sudden June shift in which tennis players appear to be in form. If you’re not looking for this shift, Wimbledon betting can be very costly.
Fortunately, we have a few small grass tune-up tournaments to offer up clues on which players are well-positioned for the 2022 Championships at Wimbledon.
In the case of last weekend’s Cinch Championships – played at Queen’s Club, also in London – we got a very good preview of what to expect from some key players in the Wimbledon draw.
Wimbledon Betting: Matteo Berrettini is Still a Premiere Player on Grass
Italy’s top tennis player had a career year in 2021, with a sensational run to the championship match at Wimbledon currently serving as the top line on his resume.
Berrettini ultimately lost to Novak Djokovic in the championship, 7-6, 4-6, 4-6, 3-6. Nevertheless, his strong run through the draw was a clear announcement that Berrettini would continue to be a threat in major tournaments – particularly so at Wimbledon.
However, when Berrettini withdrew from ATP Miami two months ago to undergo surgery on his right hand, his status for the two upcoming majors was in doubt.
Ultimately, Berrettini missed most of the clay swing, but he targeted grass season as his return date.
His return to the tour has been perfect. Literally. While many players were still bathing in the afterglow of Roland Garros, Berrettini played his first grass tournament in Stuttgart. He rattled off four match wins, including a three-set win over the always-dangerous Andy Murray in the finale.
Then, last week, he seized the title at Queen’s Court as the No. 2 seed, earning impressive wins over Daniel Evans, Denis Kudla, Tommy Paul, Botic Van De Zandschulp and Filip Krajinovic. No slouches there.
Berrettini has won 20 of his last 21 matches on grass, with the only loss coming to Djokovic. There’s a reason he’s so high in the Wimbledon odds table.
I’m seriously considering a bet on Berrettini to win it all at +600.
Wimbledon Betting: A Casper Ruud Hangover
Ruud has been a solid top-10 player for much of the last 18 months, and a poor showing on the lawn won’t change that. But after a tough loss in the French Open final, Ruud lost in the first round at Queen’s Club to wild-card Ryan Peniston (Rk 147).
It’s a tough look for Ruud, who will play at Wimbledon as the No. 3 seed.
Truthfully, though, Ruud has never been much of a grass player. And when you combine that with the ugly loss to Nadal at the beginning of the month, there just isn’t a number big enough to make me want to ride Ruud at all next week in London.
Just as there’s a reason Berrettini is so high, there’s also a reason that Ruud – the No. 5 player in all of men’s tennis – is 80-to-1 at Wimbledon.
Wimbledon Betting: Is Filip Krajinovic a Sleeper or a Mirage?
If mid-June grass tournaments are clues that indicate who might play well at Wimbledon, then Krajinovic has to be one of the big winners.
Krajinovic has had a fairly mediocre year so far, posting a 12-11 tour record before heading to Queen’s Club last week, where he ripped off four wins en route to the championship match.
That’s not too shabby for a guy who’s never posted a win in the Wimbledon main draw throughout his professional career.
Krajinovic is 50-to-1 to lift the trophy, and I’m not sure any serious tennis betting expert would tell you to consider a play here. But on a single-match basis, No. 27 seed Krajinovic could be an interesting player to target as an early winner… if you’re willing to place a higher premium on his current form than his career history.