Why ‘Shortest Touchdown’ in Bengals-Jets Game is Most Interesting NFL Prop Bet of Week 8

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(Photo by Erik Drost/Wikimedia Commons)
Andrew Doughty @DoughtyBetMGM Oct 27, 2021, 7:57 PM

With five minutes remaining in the Cincinnati Bengals’ Week 4 game against the Jacksonville Jaguars, Joe Mixon tied the game at 14-14 with a one-yard touchdown run on 3rd-and-goal. It came one play after Joe Burrow’s 1-yard touchdown was overturned.

Those are the Bengals’ only two plays from the opponent’s 1-yard line in seven games this season, tied for the fewest in the NFL. And their lone 1-yard touchdown is also tied for the fewest in the NFL. Their Week 8 opponent, the New York Jets, are also tied for the fewest plays from the 1-yard line and fewest touchdown from the 1-yard line.

When the Bengals visit the Jets in Week 8, you can bet on NFL odds for the shortest touchdown scored in the game:

Over 1.5 yards: -110
Under 1.5 yards: -125

Of the 770 combined plays run by the two teams through a combined 13 games, 0.052 percent have come in goal-to-go situations from the 1-yard line:

Bengals: 2 of 416 plays (0.048 percent)
Jets: 2 of 354 plays (0.056 percent)

And only two of their combined 32 touchdowns were 1-yard scores:

Bengals: 1 of 23 (4.3 percent)
Jets: 1 of 9 (11.1 percent)

Why are the odds only -110 for an over-1.5-yards bet when the Bengals and Jets rarely attempt and score 1-yard touchdown runs?

One potential reason: The Jets allowed four 1-yard touchdown runs against the New England Patriots in Week 7 and have allowed an NFL-high seven 1-yard touchdown runs this season. Only five other teams have allowed more than four such touchdowns, a group that doesn’t include the Bengals (three).

For more college football and NFL betting analysis and predictions, check out The Lion’s Edge podcast. Listen below or on Apple PodcastsSpotify, and everywhere podcasts are available:

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About the Author

Andrew Doughty

Read More @DoughtyBetMGM

Andrew Doughty is a writer for BetMGM and host of The Lion's Edge, an NFL and college football podcast available on Apple Podcasts and everywhere else.

Andrew Doughty is a writer for BetMGM and host of The Lion's Edge, an NFL and college football podcast available on Apple Podcasts and everywhere else.