Why ‘Shortest Touchdown’ in Bengals-Jets Game is Most Interesting NFL Prop Bet of Week 8

With five minutes remaining in the Cincinnati Bengals’ Week 4 game against the Jacksonville Jaguars, Joe Mixon tied the game at 14-14 with a one-yard touchdown run on 3rd-and-goal. It came one play after Joe Burrow’s 1-yard touchdown was overturned.

Those are the Bengals’ only two plays from the opponent’s 1-yard line in seven games this season, tied for the fewest in the NFL. And their lone 1-yard touchdown is also tied for the fewest in the NFL. Their Week 8 opponent, the New York Jets, are also tied for the fewest plays from the 1-yard line and fewest touchdown from the 1-yard line.

When the Bengals visit the Jets in Week 8, you can bet on NFL odds for the shortest touchdown scored in the game:

Over 1.5 yards: -110
Under 1.5 yards: -125

Of the 770 combined plays run by the two teams through a combined 13 games, 0.052 percent have come in goal-to-go situations from the 1-yard line:

Bengals: 2 of 416 plays (0.048 percent)
Jets: 2 of 354 plays (0.056 percent)

And only two of their combined 32 touchdowns were 1-yard scores:

Bengals: 1 of 23 (4.3 percent)
Jets: 1 of 9 (11.1 percent)

Why are the odds only -110 for an over-1.5-yards bet when the Bengals and Jets rarely attempt and score 1-yard touchdown runs?

One potential reason: The Jets allowed four 1-yard touchdown runs against the New England Patriots in Week 7 and have allowed an NFL-high seven 1-yard touchdown runs this season. Only five other teams have allowed more than four such touchdowns, a group that doesn’t include the Bengals (three).

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