The Miami Dolphins (3-7) will travel to play the New York Jets (2-7) in an AFC East matchup on Sunday afternoon in Week 11. The Dolphins are coming off a massive win against the Baltimore Ravens.
The Jets got manhandled in three out of their last four games. Yet, according to the NFL lines this week, they’re only a three-point underdog at home this week.
Let’s take a look at the best bets for the Dolphins at Jets.
Miami Dolphins: Week 11 Road Favorites
In Week 11, the Dolphins are favored on the road. Last week, they gave a bizarro world performance in South Florida by defeating the Ravens 22-10.
Tua Tagovailoa played well in relief of Jacoby Brissett, who left the game early in the 3rd quarter because of a knee injury. The Dolphins amassed 350 total yards against the Ravens. Only 60 of those came on the ground.
Tagovailoa should get the nod on the road against the Jets. Miami is 2-1-1 ATS as the away team.
That’s about the best you can hope for in this game. Bettors have already jumped on the minus three-point spread for the Dolphins (-115).
The money line for Miami sits at -170. That could be worthwhile if it drops a bit. But then again, they’ll be playing the Jets.
Dolphins at Jets
The Jets are playing poorly. Their quarterback woes between Mike White and Zach Wilson haven’t helped. In their last four games, they’ve given up an average of nearly 44 points.
The shining light from their 34-31 victory against the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 8 quickly faded. The Jets allowed 45 against the Indianapolis Colts and the Buffalo Bills in the next two weeks.
Surprisingly, the Jets offer +140 for the money line. I don’t see that as a worthwhile wager.
And even more shocking, the Jets hit the over in six out of their nine games. (The highest over percentage in the NFL.) In contrast, the Dolphins are 4-6 for the over-under.
The Jets are 2-1 for the over in the AFC East. Miami has hit the under in three divisional games this season.
The current line sits at 45.5.
Let’s face it. The Jets hit the over because they’ve given up so many points. If the point total for this game gets into the 40s, I’d be surprised.
The under looks good here.
Which Team Has the Best Chance to Win?
For the Dolphins at Jets, this game has a slight chance to be close and hard-fought until the final moments. But then, Miami may eke out a win by just a field goal.
But I think Tagovailoa has a better opportunity to carve up this Jets secondary. The Jets gave up 350 passing yards at home versus the Bills last week. The Bills averaged 9.1 yards per play.
For the Jets, White threw four interceptions. Michael Carter averaged 2.4 yards-per-carry on 16 attempts.
Granted, the Bills are the top defense in the NFL. But this Week 11 matchup at MetLife Stadium has a chance to be a blowout.
I think the Dolphins under at 24.5 with -133 odds offers decent value. Plus, a winning margin by 1-6 is valued at +310. So I wouldn’t put a shutout courtesy of the Dolphins out of the realm of possibility.
Do you think the New York Jets can defend their home-field advantage? Or do you like the Miami Dolphins to pick up a road victory? Place your wagers at the best New Jersey sports betting site today.