In Week 15, the New England Patriots (9-4) and Indianapolis Colts (7-6) will meet on Saturday at 8:20 PM EST. Both teams will be coming off their bye.
NFL odds opened with New England as a slight underdog. So let’s break down the best bets for the Patriots at Colts this week.
After winning seven straight games, the Patriots are the top seed in the AFC. The Colts have won four out of their last five games, with their only loss in that span coming in Week 12 when they lost at home to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 38-31.
Before their bye, Indianapolis won easily against the Houston Texans, 31-0. The Pats won 14-10 in Week 13 on the road against the Buffalo Bills.
The Colts have allowed 29.75 points per game in their previous four home matchups.
The Patriots have averaged 22.5 points per contest in their last four road games. They’ve won those games by an average of 12.5 points.
Indianapolis hasn’t won at home against a team with a winning record all season. Although they rank third in the NFL at points per game, they’ll be facing the league’s number one scoring defense this week.
New England has given up an average of 15.4 points per game all season. However, they’ve given up an average of 7.7 points in their last three contests.
This week, I’m taking the Patriots to win outright.
New England (+2)
Since I like the Patriots for the money line, I think it’s a great bet to take them with the points this week.
New England has only allowed 11.3 points per game on the road this season.
The Colts are 1-5 against teams with a winning record, and at home, they’ve allowed 25.3 points per game.
Indianapolis ranks 17th in rushing defense. They’ve given up 123.9 yards on the ground per home game. Since the Patriots like to run the ball on the road, averaging 34.7 attempts, that should keep the game close.
I’d take New England to have a slight edge in Indianapolis. The Patriots have allowed an average of 1.2 touchdowns per game as the away team (best in the NFL), while Indianapolis has allowed 3.1 touchdowns per home contest.
I don’t believe the Colts will put up many points against the Patriots this week.
While the Colts have been one of the league’s top-scoring offenses, they haven’t been able to win against teams with a winning record. I think this week they might get stymied against one of the best defenses in the NFL.
As mentioned above, New England averages 34.7 rushing attempts per game on the road. Against the Colts’ run defense, I expect the Patriots to run the ball at least 25 times to control the time of possession. Indianapolis also likes to run the ball, averaging 29.5 attempts per game, good for fifth in the league.
With both teams trying to run against the other, I expect this to be a low-scoring game.
Patriots at Colts
What do you think? Which team do you like for the Patriots at Colts in Week 15? Do you believe that the Patriots will win, or do you think the Colts’ running game will be too much for New England?
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