Boise State has won the Mountain West Conference championship every other season going back four years, winning it in 2017 and 2019. If the college football betting odds are correct, that trend will continue in 2021.
The Broncos have -115 odds to claim the Mountain West trophy. Nevada is next at +400.
That is a similar dropoff between teams No. 1 and No. 2 as the AAC (Cincinnati -200, UCF +400). But the MAC (Buffalo +300, Ball State +350), the Sun Belt (Louisiana +130, Coastal Carolina +175), and Conference USA (Marshall +270, UAB +300, UTSA +300) look to have tighter races.
Will the Mountain West end up more competitive than the college football betting lines say?
Here are the preseason odds to win the Mountain West at the BetMGM online sportsbook.
*As of Aug. 5.
Boise State -115
Boise State has won the Mountain West four times since 2012 (2012, 2014, 2017, and 2019). The Broncos won the WAC eight times from 2002-2010. They look to add another to the trophy case as heavy favorites this year. New head coach Andy Avalos is stepping into a solid situation by inheriting a team with 16 returning starters.
Nevada +400
Nevada has never won a Mountain West championship since joining the conference in 2012, but after a 3-9 season in Jay Norvell’s first year as head coach in 2017, the Wolf Pack have made three straight bowl games, winning two of them in 2018 and 2020. Nevada finished 7-2 overall last season, ending with a Potato Bowl win.
San Jose State +500
Don’t sleep on the defending champs. From 2-11 in 2017, 1-11 in 2018, 5-7 in 2019, to a 7-1 breakout season last year, the Spartans shocked many with an unbeaten record in conference play. The question is can they do it again? The betting odds suggest that, no, they cannot. The Spartans get a boost by not playing Boise State, but they do go to Nevada.
Wyoming +800
Since a 6-2 season in 2016, the Cowboys have hovered around .500 in conference play. They have the most returning production in the conference at 79 percent (79 percent offense, 79 percent defense). The Cowboys can be 4-0 heading into the MWC schedule (vs. Montana State, at Northern Illinois, vs. Ball State, at UConn). A confident and experienced team could lead to an improved record in the standings.
Hawaii +1100
Hawaii appeared in the conference championship game two seasons ago, losing 31-10 to Boise State. Last year saw a 5-4 finish with a New Mexico Bowl win in Todd Graham’s first season as head coach. After an up-and-down season of learning a new offensive system, perhaps Hawaii can be the surprise team in the standings this year.
San Diego State +1400
The Aztecs won the conference championship in 2015 and 2016, but they have not made it back to the title game since. Winning records have remained, though: 10-3 in 2017, 7-6 in 2018, 10-3 in 2019, and 4-4 last year. This is a quality program that doesn’t plan on being in the middle of the Mountain West pack.
Fresno State +2500
After a 2017 Mountain West title game appearance and then a 2018 conference championship game win, Fresno State slipped to 4-8 in 2019 and 3-3 last year. If the defense can catch up to an explosive offense, the Bulldogs can rise in the standings again.
Air Force +3000
The Falcons don’t have high expectations heading into the fall, but it was just two seasons ago they went 11-2 overall with a bowl win. Last year’s 3-3 record may not inspire much confidence in the preseason, but Air Force’s strong defense will keep the team competitive.
Colorado State +5000
With three straight losing seasons and a 1-3 record in 2020, Colorado State may be in for a rough year. And it could start with a season-opening home loss to SDSU. No, not San Diego State. We’re talking about FCS powerhouse South Dakota State.
Utah State +5000
Utah State is trending down quickly, going from 11-2 in 2018, to 7-6 the following season in Gary Andersen’s second stint as head coach, and to 1-5 in 2020 that saw Andersen get fired midseason. It will be quite the rebuilding process for new head coach Blake Anderson, who arrives after much success at Arkansas State, including two Sun Belt titles.
New Mexico +15000
New Mexico is 10-33 since 2017. There’s a reason you see a steep dropoff in odds from Utah State to New Mexico.
UNLV +25000
The Rebels haven’t had a winning overall record since 2013 and went 0-6 last season, and the team’s over-under win total is a paltry 1.5.
Enough said.
Mountain West Conference Title Odds
Boise State -115
Nevada +400
San Jose State +500
Wyoming +800
Hawaii +1100
San Diego State +1400
Fresno State +2500
Air Force +3000
Colorado State +5000
Utah State +5000
New Mexico +15000
UNLV +25000
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