- The Bills are -1.5 point favorites vs the Bears
- Total (Over/Under): 38.5 points
The Buffalo Bills visit Soldier Field to take on the Chicago Bears on Aug. 26. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Chicago.
The Bills are betting favorites in this preseason matchup, with the spread sitting at -1.5 (+100).
The Bills vs. Bears Over/Under is 38.5 total points for the game.
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Bills vs. Bears Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Bills | -1.5 +100 | 38.5 -110 | -110 |
| Bears | +1.5 -120 | 38.5 -110 | -110 |
Bills vs. Bears Prediction
Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Bills will win this preseason game with 61.0% confidence.
Bills vs Bears Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Bills will cover the spread with 51.1% confidence.
Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Bills and Bears, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.
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Best Bills Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Bills players this preseason game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- James Cook has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 74% ROI)
- Josh Allen has hit the Passing Yards Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.20 Units / 36% ROI)
- Josh Allen has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 79% ROI)
- Josh Allen has hit the Longest Rush Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 79% ROI)
- Gabriel Davis has hit the Longest Reception Under in 6 of his last 7 away games (+4.85 Units / 56% ROI)
Best Bears Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Bears players for this preseason matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Justin Fields has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.80 Units / 73% ROI)
- Cole Kmet has hit the Receptions Over in his last 5 games at home (+5.95 Units / 105% ROI)
- Darnell Mooney has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.80 Units / 66% ROI)
- Justin Fields has hit the Pass Attempts Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+5.60 Units / 31% ROI)
- Justin Fields has hit the Passing Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.55 Units / 54% ROI)
Bills Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL preseason, the Bills went 1-0 (+1 Units / 90.91% ROI).
- Bills are 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.5 Units / 150% ROI
- Bills are 1-0 when betting the Over for +1 Units / 90.91% ROI
- Bills are 0-1 when betting the Under for -1.1 Units / ROI
Bears Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL preseason, the Bears went 1-0 (+1 Units / 90.91% ROI).
- Bears are 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 58.82% ROI
- Bears are 1-0 when betting the Over for +1 Units / 90.91% ROI
- Bears are 0-1 when betting the Under for -1.1 Units / -100% ROI
Buffalo Bills: Keys to the Game vs. the Chicago Bears
The Bills were undefeated (9-0) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns in the 2022 season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .577.
The Bills were undefeated (4-0) vs top 10 run offenses in the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .432.
The Bills were 7-1 (.875) when possessing the ball longer than their opponent last season — sixth-best in NFL. The Bears allowed an average time of possession of 32 min and 7 s last season — fifth-highest in NFL.
The Bills were 11-1 (.917) when allowing less than 3 sacks last season — second-best in NFL. The Bears averaged just 1.2 sacks per game over that time span — tied for worst in NFL.
Chicago Bears: Keys to the Game vs. the Buffalo Bills
The Bears were 1-7 (.125) when within 7 points at the two minute warning in the 2022 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .492.
The Bears are 6-8 (.429) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .766.
The Bears were 3-9 (.250) when throwing at least 1 interception last season — 10th-worst in NFL. The Bills intercepted 17 passes last season — tied for fourth-most in NFL.
The Bears were winless (0-8) when allowing more than 5 yards per rush in the 2022 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .448.
Additional Matchup Notes for Buffalo Bills vs. Chicago Bears
The Bears had a third down conversion rate of just 5.6% on 3rd and 10+ YTG in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — fourth-worst in NFL. The Bills defense allowed a third down conversion rate of just 0.0% on 3rd and 10+ YTG in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — tied for best in NFL.
The Bears had a third down conversion rate of just 25.5% in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — third-worst in NFL. The Bills defense allowed a third down conversion rate of just 28.2% in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — third-best in NFL.
Bears TEs had just 34.5 receiving yards per game in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — tied for fifth-worst in NFL. The Bills allowed an average of just 24.7 receiving yards per game to TEs in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — second-best in NFL.
The Bills ran successful plays on 51.9% of pass attempts last season — third-best in NFL. Bears allowed successful plays on 51.4% of pass attempts last season — second-worst in NFL.
The Bills had a third down conversion rate of 50.0% last season — best in NFL. The Bears defense allowed a third down conversion rate of 49.0% last season — worst in NFL.
The Bills averaged 4.9 yards per carry last season — tied for best in NFL. The Bears allowed 5.2 yards per carry last season — fifth-worst in NFL.
Buffalo Bills Offense: Important Stats
The Bills have a third down conversion rate of 49% since the 2021 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 40%.
The Bills committed 6 turnovers in the red zone in the 2022 season — most in NFL.
The Bills have converted first downs on 201 of 418 plays (48%) on 3rd down since the 2021 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 40%.
The Bills have an average drive start position from the 32.7 yard line in the 1st quarter since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 25.7.
Chicago Bears Offense: Important Stats
The Bears threw the ball 38% of the time (376 Pass Attempts/990 plays) in the 2022 season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 53%.
43% of the Bears offense’s first downs (109 of 256) came through the air in the 2022 season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 62%.
The Bears ran the ball on 40% of plays (88 carries/218 plays) on 3rd down in the 2022 season — 2nd-highest in NFL; League Avg: 25%.
The Bears went three and out 7 times in the 3rd quarter in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — most in NFL.
Buffalo Bills Defense: Important Stats
The Bills defense has allowed a passer rating of just 74.6 (1,105 Pass Attempts) since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 90.0.
The Bills defense stuffed 24% (94/386) of rushing attempts in the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 17%.
The Bills defense has allowed 305.1 yards from scrimmage per game since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 357.1.
The Bills defense has allowed 184.1 passing yards per game (6,259/34) since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 223.0.
Chicago Bears Defense: Important Stats
The Bears defense allowed a passer rating of 122.4 on 3rd and long (66 Pass Attempts) in the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 78.1.
The Bears defense allowed first downs on 49% of plays on 3rd down in the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 39%.
The Bears defense allowed a third down conversion rate of 39% on 3rd and long in the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 24%.
The Bears defense averaged a sack every 25.0 pass attempts (501 Pass Attempts/20 Sacks) in the 2022 season — 2nd-worst attempts per sack rate in NFL; League Avg: 14.9.
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