After demolishing their division rival New England Patriots last week, the Buffalo Bills now travel to Kansas City to face QB Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs.
BetMGM’s latest NFL betting lines have Kansas City as 1.5-point favorites in this Bills at Chiefs matchup.
Will the Chiefs cover the spread, or will the Buffalo Bills pull off an upset? Here are some of my predictions for this game.
Bills at Chiefs (-1.5) Game Information
Before we get to some of my picks for this game, here is some basic information that you need to know:
- Date: Sunday, Jan. 23rd, 2022
- Time: 6:30 PM EST on CBS
- Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO
Bills +1.5
The Bills were the league’s top defense in the regular season. They gave up the fewest points per game (17), fewest total yards per game (272.8), and fewest passing yards per game (163).
Buffalo also has double the turnover margin of Kansas City (+8 vs. +4).
The running game advantage goes to Buffalo. During the regular season, they averaged 129.9 yards per game. The Chiefs’ defense ranked 21st in stopping the run, and the Bills can use that mismatch to keep the ball out of Mahomes’ hands.
The two teams met up once back in Week 5 when the Bills went into Arrowhead and beat the Chiefs 38-20.
Buffalo had 121 rushing yards the last time they played Kansas City and averaged 8.1 yards per play to the Chiefs 5.0. While the Chiefs held the time of possession advantage in the regular-season matchup, the Bills can win that battle if they run the ball like they did last week against the Patriots, where they gained 174 yards.
Doing so will help neutralize Patrick Mahomes, TE Travis Kelce, and the Chiefs’ dangerous passing attack.
If the Bills find success again in running the ball and do not rely on Josh Allen entirely, they can knock off the Chiefs.
Over 54.5
Yes, I mentioned above that the Bills have the league’s top defense, so why do I think this is going over?
These two teams rank third and fourth in the NFL in points per game, scoring over 56 combined. Last week, neither offense slowed down too much, scoring 89 points combined.
Buffalo should find success on offense if they can run the ball efficiently to balance their attack.
If they do not turn the ball over, Kansas City should succeed on offense. They average about 397 total yards per game, the league’s third-highest. In four of their last five regular-season games, the Chiefs did not turn the ball over. If both teams can play mistake-free football, I believe they’ll both score enough to go over the total.
Who Do You Think Wins This Divisional Round Game?
These are two of my best predictions in this Bills at Chiefs game. Do you agree with these picks, or would you go the other way?
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