The Buffalo Bills sit just a half-game back of the New England Patriots in the AFC East. As a result, the Bills will have to beat the Patriots on Monday Night Football to take the division lead.
Mac Jones and Josh Allen, two of the best young quarterbacks in the NFL, will be squaring off. The BetMGM NFL betting lines have the Bills as three-point favorites. In the article below, I’ll look at this game and the rest of the Bills’ matchups.
Week 13 Is Just Round One for the Bills and Patriots
If the Bills can’t beat the Patriots at home on Monday Night Football, they’ll have a hard time winning the AFC East. The Bills remaining schedule includes a matchup against Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and a game against the Patriots in Foxborough.
Buffalo beat New England twice last year, but they have struggled against Bill Belichick historically. Belichick holds a 35-7 record over the Bills during his tenure as the Patriots head coach. Buffalo will have to buck that trend to wrestle control of the division back from the Patriots.
Buffalo Will Have To Beat Another Nemesis To Win the Division
If Buffalo does manage to beat New England on Monday Night Football, they’ll secure a rare win against Bill Belichick. After that, the Bills will have to do something else that they rarely do; beat Tom Brady. The future Hall of Famer holds a 32-3 record against the Bills all-time.
Brady is currently the front-runner for MVP, but Josh Allen is close behind. Unfortunately for Allen and the Bills, Brady may see the Bills at Buccaneers matchup as his opportunity to secure his fourth MVP. I’m not too fond of the Bills’ odds in this game going up against a highly motivated Tom Brady.
The Bills and Patriots Look Even on Paper
Predicting the winner of the Bills vs. Patriots game is challenging because these teams are so similar statistically. Buffalo is second in the NFL in points per game, and the Patriots are seventh.
The Bills have given up the second-fewest passing yards per game on defense. The Patriots have given up the third-fewest.
The most significant difference between these two teams is in run defense. The Bills allow less than 100 yards per game, while the Patriots rank 20th in the NFL and allow 115 yards per game on the ground. So if the Bills can run the ball effectively against New England in their two remaining matchups, Buffalo may win the division.
Predicting the AFC East Winner
The Bills will likely need to sweep the Patriots in the season series to win the AFC East. Buffalo did it last year, but this Patriots team has found its quarterback of the future and has one of the best defenses in the NFL.
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