The New England Patriots played the Buffalo Bills two weeks ago, and New England ran for 222 rushing yards en route to a 14-10 victory. In the Bills at Patriots game in Week 16, the Patriots are 2.5-point favorites according to the NFL betting lines from BetMGM.
The previous matchup between these two teams was heavily influenced by the windy weather in Buffalo, as the Patriots opted for a run-heavy approach. Patriots quarterback Mac Jones finished with an interesting stat line: two completions for 19 yards. In this article, I’ll look at how Buffalo might approach this game and I’ll try to find some value for bettors.
Bills at Patriots
- Date: Sunday, December 26th, 2021
- Time: 1:00 P.M. EST
- Venue: Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, MA
- Participants: New England Patriots (-2.5)
Buffalo Bills Money line (+115)
Buffalo lost by just four points the last time these two teams played. It’s fair to say the wind was a significant reason they lost. Josh Allen missed an open Stefon Diggs on a deep touchdown pass in the third quarter that would have put the Bills ahead, and it was clear on replay the wind wreaked havoc with the ball’s flight. New England could only muster two scores despite running for more than 200 yards against the Bills.
The Patriots’ run defense has been a significant liability as of late. In the last three games, the Patriots have allowed an average of 198.3 yards per game on the ground. That’s the worst mark in the NFL during that time.
Buffalo ranks 24th in the NFL in rushing attempts per game over the past three weeks, but they rank second in rushing yards per attempt. Buffalo prefers to pass, but they can run the ball effectively when needed. New England could be in trouble if Buffalo can pick up chunk yardage on the ground and control the clock. That is what the Indianapolis Colts were able to do in Week 15, and the result was a loss for the Patriots.
Under 43.5 Total Points (-110)
The Patriots have allowed the fewest touchdowns per game of any team in the NFL. Their opponent, the Bills, have allowed the second-fewest touchdowns per game.
It’s unlikely this game hits the over if these two teams struggle to finish drives in the end zone. These two teams also rank third and fourth in the NFL in takeaways per game. They both have defenses that keep opponents out of the end zone and a knack for generating turnovers, two factors that lead me to believe Sunday’s matchup will be a low-scoring affair.
Reviewing the Best Bets for Bills at Patriots
Despite New England’s success with running the football, the Buffalo Bills had every chance to win the last time these teams played.
However, I think Buffalo will get the job done in the Bills at Patriots matchup in Week 16, which should be another low-scoring defensive battle. Anyone interested in betting on this game can head to the BetMGM online sportsbook.