- The Steelers are -2.5 point favorites vs the Bills
- Total (Over/Under): 40.5 points
The Buffalo Bills visit Acrisure Stadium to take on the Pittsburgh Steelers on Aug. 19. Kickoff is scheduled for 6:30pm EDT in Pittsburgh.
The Steelers are betting favorites in this preseason matchup, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-110).
The Bills vs. Steelers Over/Under is 40.5 total points for the game.
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Bills vs. Steelers Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Bills | +2.5 -110 | 40.5 -110 | +120 |
| Steelers | -2.5 -110 | 40.5 -110 | -145 |
Bills vs. Steelers Prediction
Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Steelers will win this preseason game with 56.9% confidence.
Bills vs Steelers Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Steelers will cover the spread with 51.1% confidence.
Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Bills and Steelers, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.
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Best Bills Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Bills players this preseason game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- James Cook has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 74% ROI)
- Josh Allen has hit the Passing Yards Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.20 Units / 36% ROI)
- Josh Allen has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 79% ROI)
- Josh Allen has hit the Longest Rush Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 79% ROI)
- Gabriel Davis has hit the Longest Reception Under in 6 of his last 7 away games (+4.85 Units / 56% ROI)
Best Steelers Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Steelers players for this preseason matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Kenny Pickett has hit the TD Passes Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.45 Units / 40% ROI)
- Kenny Pickett has hit the Interceptions Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+7.25 Units / 49% ROI)
- Kenny Pickett has hit the Completions Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 78% ROI)
- Kenny Pickett has hit the Pass Attempts Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 77% ROI)
- Kenny Pickett has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 74% ROI)
Bills Best Bets:
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 14 of their last 19 games (+8.40 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in their last 6 games (+6.05 Units / 85% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 1H Moneyline in 12 of their last 19 games (+6.05 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 17 games (+5.80 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.05 Units / 24% ROI)
Steelers Best Bets:
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 10 of their last 15 games (+6.25 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 2H Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+5.80 Units / 55% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 18 games (+5.75 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have covered the 2H Spread in their last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 93% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have scored last in their last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 88% ROI)
Bills Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL preseason, the Bills went 1-0 (+1 Units / 90.91% ROI).
- Bills are 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.5 Units / 150% ROI
- Bills are 1-0 when betting the Over for +1 Units / 90.91% ROI
- Bills are 0-1 when betting the Under for -1.1 Units / ROI
Steelers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL preseason, the Steelers went 1-0 (+1 Units / 90.91% ROI).
- Steelers are 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 64.52% ROI
- Steelers are 1-0 when betting the Over for +1 Units / 90.91% ROI
- Steelers are 0-1 when betting the Under for -1.1 Units / -100% ROI
Buffalo Bills: Keys to the Game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers
The Bills were undefeated (9-0) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns in the 2022 season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .578.
The Bills were undefeated (4-0) vs top 10 run offenses in the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .429.
The Bills were 6-3 (.667) when rushing less than 25 times in the 2022 season — tied for 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: .321.
The Bills were undefeated (4-0) vs bottom 10 run defenses in the 2022 season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .535.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Keys to the Game vs. the Buffalo Bills
The Steelers were 1-6 (.143) when throwing at least 1 interception last season — tied for fourth-worst in NFL. The Bills intercepted 17 passes last season — tied for fourth-most in NFL.
The Steelers were winless (0-5) when committing 2 or more turnovers in the 2022 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .301.
The Steelers are 1-2 (.333) after a loss as favorites since the 2021 season — 4th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .630.
The Steelers were 8-2 (.800) when not throwing an interception in the 2022 season — tied for 6th-best in NFL; League Avg: .614.
Additional Matchup Notes for Buffalo Bills vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers had an average drive start position from the 24.8 yard line last season — tied for fourth-worst in NFL. The Bills allowed an average drive start position from the 24.5 yard line last season — best in NFL.
Steelers WRs averaged just 2.7 yards after the catch last season — worst in NFL. The Bills allowed just 3.6 yards after catch per reception to WRs last season — tied for best in NFL.
Steelers RBs averaged just 5.5 yards after the catch in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — fourth-worst in NFL. The Bills allowed just 4.7 yards after catch per reception to RBs in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — best in NFL.
The Bills threw 35 touchdown passes last season — third-most in NFL. The Steelers allowed 29 passing TDs last season — tied for second-most in NFL.
The Bills ran successful plays on 42.7% of pass attempts when their QB was under pressure last season — best in NFL. The Steelers have pressured opposing QBs on just 19.2% of passing plays last season — tied for fourth-worst in NFL.
Bills WRs had 24 receiving touchdowns last season — second-most in NFL. The Steelers allowed 29 receiving touchdowns last season — tied for second-most in NFL.
Buffalo Bills Offense: Important Stats
The Bills committed 6 turnovers in the red zone in the 2022 season — most in NFL.
The Bills have run 24% of their plays in the red zone in the 4th quarter since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 16%.
The Bills have a third down conversion rate of 49% since the 2021 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 40%.
The Bills have an average drive start position from the 32.7 yard line in the 1st quarter since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 25.7.
Pittsburgh Steelers Offense: Important Stats
The Steelers averaged 14.7 drives per TD in the 3rd quarter in the 2022 season — worst Drives Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 5.4.
The Steelers started 5 drives inside their own 20 yard line in the 1st quarter in the 2022 season — tied for 2nd-fewest in NFL.
The Steelers had a third down conversion rate of 59% in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 39%.
The Steelers committed 16 turnovers in the 2022 season — tied for 2nd-fewest in NFL.
Buffalo Bills Defense: Important Stats
The Bills defense has allowed a passer rating of just 74.6 (1,105 Pass Attempts) since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 90.0.
The Bills defense stuffed 24% (94/386) of rushing attempts in the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 17%.
The Bills defense has allowed 34 TD passes since the 2021 season — fewest in NFL.
The Bills defense has allowed scores on 29% of opponent drives since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 37%.
Pittsburgh Steelers Defense: Important Stats
The Steelers defense allowed 6 rushing TDs on 61 carries (10.2 Carries Per TD) in the red zone in the 2022 season — best Carries Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 5.4.
The Steelers have been flagged 16 times for 10+ yards on defense since the 2021 season — fewest in NFL.
The Steelers defense allowed 7 rushing TDs on 428 carries (61.1 Carries Per TD) in the 2022 season — best Carries Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 29.5.
The Steelers defense allowed just -11.0 yards per dropback (-110 yards/10 attempts) on passes when they pressured the QB in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — best in NFL; League Avg: 1.6.
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