- The Blue Jays are -150 favorites vs the Pirates
- Blue Jays starting pitcher: José Berríos
- Pirates starting pitcher: Johan Oviedo
- Watch the game on SportsNet PT
The Toronto Blue Jays (-150) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+125) on Saturday, May 6, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:35pm EDT in Pittsburgh.
The Blue Jays are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).
The Blue Jays vs Pirates Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Blue Jays are 19-14 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 20-13 ATS.
Blue Jays vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Blue Jays | -1.5 +105 | O 9 -120 | -150 |
| Pirates | +1.5 -130 | U 9 +100 | +125 |
Blue Jays vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Blue Jays and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Bets Today:
- George Springer has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 18 away games (+12.15 Units / 42% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 16 away games (+11.00 Units / 62% ROI)
- Matt Chapman has hit the RBIs Under in his last 9 away games (+9.00 Units / 49% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 12 of his last 16 away games (+8.55 Units / 45% ROI)
- George Springer has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 18 away games (+7.80 Units / 28% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Connor Joe has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.80 Units / 54% ROI)
- Carlos Santana has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+8.40 Units / 40% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Total Bases Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+7.10 Units / 86% ROI)
- Rodolfo Castro has hit the Singles Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+6.35 Units / 78% ROI)
- Connor Joe has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 15 games (+5.65 Units / 37% ROI)
Pirates vs Blue Jays Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 +1200 | 0.5 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Kevin Kiermaier | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
| George Springer | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Jack Suwinski | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
Pirates vs Blue Jays Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 -105 | 0.5 -125 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Kevin Kiermaier | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +125 |
| George Springer | 1.5 +190 | 1.5 -250 |
| Jack Suwinski | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +120 |
Pirates vs Blue Jays RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -500 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Kevin Kiermaier | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| George Springer | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jack Suwinski | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Pirates vs Blue Jays Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Berrios | 4.5 -150 | 4.5 +115 |
| Johan Oviedo | 4.5 -115 | 4.5 -115 |
Blue Jays Best Bets Today:
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 10 of their last 11 games (+9.20 Units / 69% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 22 games (+5.35 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 11 away games (+4.95 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 14 games (+4.65 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 14 games (+4.60 Units / 21% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 30 games (+11.55 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 30 games (+9.70 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 19 games (+7.75 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+5.65 Units / 57% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in their last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 90% ROI)
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Blue Jays have gone 17-16 against the Run Line (-0.8 Units / -1.93% ROI).
- 19-14 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.6 Units / -1.17% ROI
- 14-17 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.75 Units / -13.14% ROI
- 17-14 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.35 Units / 3.7% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 20-13 against the Run Line (+5.45 Units / 12.78% ROI).
- 20-13 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.75 Units / 28.98% ROI
- 15-16 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.45 Units / -6.74% ROI
- 16-15 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.15 Units / -0.41% ROI
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jose Berrios has allowed a just .239 SLG vs right-handed batters (fifth best)– 95th Percentile and .582 vs left-handed batters this season (sixth worst among qualified SPs)– 10th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .381 (8-for-21) against Jose Berrios’ elevated fastball this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .228 — first Percentile.
Jose Berrios has a strikeout rate of just 3% (1 SO in 36 PAs) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .441 (15-for-34) against Jose Berrios when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .226 — second Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Johan Oviedo has a strike rate of 71% when ahead in the count (second highest)– 98th Percentile and 63% when behind in the count this season (ninth lowest among qualified SPs)– 12th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 63% (24/38) against Johan Oviedo in two-strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Johan Oviedo has thrown breaking pitches 64% of the time (77/121) when behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 28% — 100th Percentile.
Johan Oviedo has thrown breaking pitches 62% of the time (169/274) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 98th Percentile.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Blue Jays are 2-12 (.143) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .047.
The Blue Jays are 42-59 (.416) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .290.
The Blue Jays are 38-28 (.576) vs top 10 scoring offenses since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .403.
The Blue Jays are 94-6 (.940) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — tied for 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .911.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Pirates are just 0-11 (.000) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .143.
The Pirates are 13-0 (1.000) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .711.
The Pirates are just 7-14 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Pirates are just 77-100 (.435) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .534.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
Blue Jays hitters have just 305 strikeouts in 1,573 PA’s (19%) against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Blue Jays are batting .262 since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Blue Jays hitters are slugging .657 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .572.
Blue Jays hitters have an OBP of .329 (5,898 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .312.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .149 with two-strikes since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Pirates hitters have an OPS of .814 (356 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .741.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of .361 (356 PA’s) against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .325.
The Pirates are batting just .223 on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .240.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Blue Jays pitchers have walked 109 of 1,747 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Blue Jays pitchers this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Blue Jays pitchers have walked 17 of 292 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Blue Jays pitchers have an ERA of 2.76 (111.0 IP) at home this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.23.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 699 of 7,475 batters (9%) since last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 57% of their games on the road since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Pirates pitchers have won 50% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Pirates vs. Blue Jays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Chase De Jong (Pirates): Knee, D15
- Robert Zastryzny (Pirates): Elbow, D15
- JarlÃn GarcÃa (Pirates): Arm, D60
- Vincent Velasquez (Pirates): Elbow, D15
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Ji Man Choi (Pirates): Achilles, D60
- Oneil Cruz (Pirates): Ankle, D60
- William Crowe (Pirates): Shoulder, D60
- Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Andrew McCutchen (Pirates): Ankle, Day-to-Day
- Hyun Jin Ryu (Blue Jays): Elbow, D60
- Zachery Pop (Blue Jays): Hamstring, D15
- Adam Cimber (Blue Jays): Rhomboid, D15
- Chad Green (Blue Jays): Undisclosed, D60
- Mitchell White (Blue Jays): Elbow, D15
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