Blue Jays vs Red Sox Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Mar 10

min read
MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Mar 10, 2023, 12:08 PM
  • The Red Sox are -175 favorites vs the Blue Jays
  • Blue Jays starting pitcher: Zachary Thompson, 9.81 ERA
  • Red Sox starting pitcher: Corey Kluber, 0.00 ERA
  • Watch the game on NESN

The Toronto Blue Jays (+145) visit JetBlue Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-175) on Friday, March 10, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EST in Fort Myers.

The Red Sox are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).

The Blue Jays vs Red Sox Over/Under is 10.5 total runs for the game.

During Spring Training, the Blue Jays are 5-3 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 10-2 ATS.

Blue Jays vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Blue Jays+1.5 -125O 10.5 -105+145
Red Sox -1.5 +105U 10.5 -115-175

Blue Jays vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Friday‘s Spring Training matchup with 61.9% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Blue Jays and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.


Bet now on Blue Jays vs Red Sox and all games with BetMGM


We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Blue Jays Player Prop Bets Today:

  • George Springer has hit the RBIs Over in 2 of his last 5 away games (+1.00 Units / 20% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Yolmer Sanchez has hit the Singles Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.65 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Jaylin Davis has hit the Singles Over in 4 of his last 6 games (+3.25 Units / 54% ROI)
  • Jaylin Davis has hit the Hits Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+2.50 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Jaylin Davis has hit the Runs Over in 3 of his last 5 games (+1.60 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Christian Arroyo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 3 of his last 5 games (+0.70 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 69 of their last 123 games (+13.85 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 26 away games (+13.00 Units / 37% ROI)
  • The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 26 away games (+11.10 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 50 of their last 86 games (+9.67 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 16 away games (+7.90 Units / 41% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 25 games at home (+10.05 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 45 of their last 80 games (+9.85 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 19 games at home (+8.45 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 68 of their last 133 games (+7.30 Units / 5% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 29 games at home (+6.10 Units / 18% ROI)

Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Blue Jays have gone 4-4 against the Run Line (+0.7 Units / 7.65% ROI).

  • 5-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.1 Units / 10.48% ROI
  • 4-3 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.6 Units / 6.7% ROI
  • 3-4 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.3 Units / -15.03% ROI

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 10-2 against the Run Line (+9.05 Units / 63.07% ROI).

  • 9-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.65 Units / 70.76% ROI
  • 6-5 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.45 Units / 3.4% ROI
  • 5-6 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.55 Units / -11.79% ROI

Zach Thompson had a strike rate of just 62% (290/469) when he’s behind in the count last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 69% — 0 Percentile.

Zach Thompson has not allowed a home run in any of the last 24.1 innings he’s appeared — Jose Quintana has the longest active streak at 67.1.

Zach Thompson had a strikeout rate of just 35% (90/259) with two-strikes last season — 15th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 41% — 11th Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of 32% (85/267) against Zach Thompson on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of the 2021 season — 14th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 89th Percentile.

Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents batted .356 (47-for-132) against Corey Kluber with runners in scoring position last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .238 — fourth Percentile.

Corey Kluber had a first-pitch strike rate of 68% (471/690) last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — 97th Percentile.

Corey Kluber walked 21 of 689 batters (3%) last season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents had a groundball rate of just 38% (75/200) against Corey Kluber in two-strike counts last season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 46% — sixth Percentile.

Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox

The Blue Jays are just 4-57 (.066) when trailing entering the 8th inning last season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Blue Jays are 68-5 (.932) when leading entering the 7th inning last season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .881.

The Blue Jays are 104-88 (.542) on the road since the 2020 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .462.

The Blue Jays are 78-20 (.796) when allowing 4 or fewer runs last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.

Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays

The Red Sox are just 4-65 (.058) when trailing entering the 8th inning last season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Red Sox are just 5-63 (.074) when trailing entering the 7th inning last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .119.

The Red Sox are just 6-12 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning last season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Red Sox are just 9-11 (.450) when tied entering the 7th inning last season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Blue Jays hitters are slugging .664 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .571.

Blue Jays hitters have just 1,888 strikeouts in 9,431 PA’s (20%) against RHP since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

The Blue Jays are batting .374 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .339.

The Blue Jays batted .264 last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .243.

The Red Sox batted .258 last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .243.

The Red Sox are batting .276 at home since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

The Red Sox batted .272 at home last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .246.

The Red Sox are batting .259 since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .243.

Blue Jays pitchers walked 428 of 6,098 batters (7%) last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Blue Jays pitchers walked 92 of 1,455 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Blue Jays pitchers have walked 901 of 12,014 batters (7%) since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Blue Jays have won 38% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the start of the 2021 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

Red Sox pitchers had an ERA of 5.24 (663.1 IP) against division opponents last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.00.

The Red Sox pitchers allowed 357 barreled balls last season — tied for 2nd most in MLB.

The Red Sox have won 40% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of the 2021 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.

Red Sox pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 89.1 MPH (4,136 batted balls) last season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 88.6.

Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Trevor Story (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
  • Toronto Blue Jays – No Injuries Reported

Bet now on Blue Jays vs Red Sox and all games with BetMGM


Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM

At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.

BetMGM First Bet Offer $1,500
About the Author

BetMGM Betting

Read More @BETMGM

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.