- The Red Sox are -175 favorites vs the Blue Jays
- Blue Jays starting pitcher: Zachary Thompson, 9.81 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Corey Kluber, 0.00 ERA
- Watch the game on NESN
The Toronto Blue Jays (+145) visit JetBlue Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-175) on Friday, March 10, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EST in Fort Myers.
The Red Sox are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).
The Blue Jays vs Red Sox Over/Under is 10.5 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Blue Jays are 5-3 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 10-2 ATS.
Blue Jays vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Blue Jays | +1.5 -125 | O 10.5 -105 | +145 |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +105 | U 10.5 -115 | -175 |
Blue Jays vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Friday‘s Spring Training matchup with 61.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Blue Jays and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Bets Today:
- George Springer has hit the RBIs Over in 2 of his last 5 away games (+1.00 Units / 20% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Yolmer Sanchez has hit the Singles Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.65 Units / 33% ROI)
- Jaylin Davis has hit the Singles Over in 4 of his last 6 games (+3.25 Units / 54% ROI)
- Jaylin Davis has hit the Hits Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+2.50 Units / 23% ROI)
- Jaylin Davis has hit the Runs Over in 3 of his last 5 games (+1.60 Units / 30% ROI)
- Christian Arroyo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 3 of his last 5 games (+0.70 Units / 12% ROI)
Blue Jays Best Bets Today:
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 69 of their last 123 games (+13.85 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 26 away games (+13.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 26 away games (+11.10 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 50 of their last 86 games (+9.67 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 16 away games (+7.90 Units / 41% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 25 games at home (+10.05 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 45 of their last 80 games (+9.85 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 19 games at home (+8.45 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 68 of their last 133 games (+7.30 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 29 games at home (+6.10 Units / 18% ROI)
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Blue Jays have gone 4-4 against the Run Line (+0.7 Units / 7.65% ROI).
- 5-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.1 Units / 10.48% ROI
- 4-3 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.6 Units / 6.7% ROI
- 3-4 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.3 Units / -15.03% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 10-2 against the Run Line (+9.05 Units / 63.07% ROI).
- 9-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.65 Units / 70.76% ROI
- 6-5 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.45 Units / 3.4% ROI
- 5-6 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.55 Units / -11.79% ROI
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zach Thompson had a strike rate of just 62% (290/469) when he’s behind in the count last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 69% — 0 Percentile.
Zach Thompson has not allowed a home run in any of the last 24.1 innings he’s appeared — Jose Quintana has the longest active streak at 67.1.
Zach Thompson had a strikeout rate of just 35% (90/259) with two-strikes last season — 15th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 41% — 11th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 32% (85/267) against Zach Thompson on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of the 2021 season — 14th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 89th Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents batted .356 (47-for-132) against Corey Kluber with runners in scoring position last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .238 — fourth Percentile.
Corey Kluber had a first-pitch strike rate of 68% (471/690) last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — 97th Percentile.
Corey Kluber walked 21 of 689 batters (3%) last season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 38% (75/200) against Corey Kluber in two-strike counts last season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 46% — sixth Percentile.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Blue Jays are just 4-57 (.066) when trailing entering the 8th inning last season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Blue Jays are 68-5 (.932) when leading entering the 7th inning last season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .881.
The Blue Jays are 104-88 (.542) on the road since the 2020 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .462.
The Blue Jays are 78-20 (.796) when allowing 4 or fewer runs last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Red Sox are just 4-65 (.058) when trailing entering the 8th inning last season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Red Sox are just 5-63 (.074) when trailing entering the 7th inning last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Red Sox are just 6-12 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning last season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are just 9-11 (.450) when tied entering the 7th inning last season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
Blue Jays hitters are slugging .664 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .571.
Blue Jays hitters have just 1,888 strikeouts in 9,431 PA’s (20%) against RHP since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Blue Jays are batting .374 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .339.
The Blue Jays batted .264 last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox batted .258 last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
The Red Sox are batting .276 at home since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Red Sox batted .272 at home last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
The Red Sox are batting .259 since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Blue Jays pitchers walked 428 of 6,098 batters (7%) last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Blue Jays pitchers walked 92 of 1,455 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Blue Jays pitchers have walked 901 of 12,014 batters (7%) since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Blue Jays have won 38% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the start of the 2021 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers had an ERA of 5.24 (663.1 IP) against division opponents last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.00.
The Red Sox pitchers allowed 357 barreled balls last season — tied for 2nd most in MLB.
The Red Sox have won 40% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of the 2021 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Red Sox pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 89.1 MPH (4,136 batted balls) last season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 88.6.
Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Toronto Blue Jays – No Injuries Reported
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