- The Blue Jays are -135 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Blue Jays starting pitcher: Yusei Kikuchi
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Tanner Houck
- Watch the game on TBS
The Toronto Blue Jays (-135) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (+110) on Tuesday, May 2, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston.
The Blue Jays are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Blue Jays vs Red Sox Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Blue Jays are 18-11 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 16-14 ATS.
Blue Jays vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Blue Jays | -1.5 +125 | O 9.5 -115 | -135 |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -150 | U 9.5 -105 | +110 |
Blue Jays vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Blue Jays will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 67.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Blue Jays and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Bets Today:
- Matt Chapman has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 26 games (+10.40 Units / 21% ROI)
- George Springer has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 14 away games (+10.15 Units / 51% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 17 games (+9.30 Units / 27% ROI)
- Matt Chapman has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 30 games (+9.15 Units / 26% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 12 away games (+9.05 Units / 70% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Rafael Devers has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 26 games (+15.25 Units / 50% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Runs Over in 19 of his last 29 games (+11.20 Units / 37% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+11.10 Units / 34% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 13 games (+11.00 Units / 48% ROI)
- Masataka Yoshida has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 11 games (+10.40 Units / 64% ROI)
Red Sox vs Blue Jays Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Kevin Kiermaier | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2500 |
Red Sox vs Blue Jays Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 1.5 +185 | 1.5 -250 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +120 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Kevin Kiermaier | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Red Sox vs Blue Jays RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Kevin Kiermaier | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -250 |
Red Sox vs Blue Jays Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tanner Houck | 4.5 -140 | 4.5 +105 |
| Yusei Kikuchi | 5.5 +120 | 5.5 -160 |
Blue Jays Best Bets Today:
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 18 games (+7.65 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 25 games (+6.40 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 10 games (+6.05 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 25 games (+6.00 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 6 of their last 7 games (+5.20 Units / 58% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 21 of their last 30 games (+10.55 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 30 games (+9.10 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 17 games (+6.55 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 24 games (+4.90 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 19 games (+3.50 Units / 16% ROI)
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Blue Jays have gone 16-13 against the Run Line (+1.5 Units / 4.05% ROI).
- 18-11 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.3 Units / 7.37% ROI
- 11-16 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.65 Units / -20.94% ROI
- 16-11 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.65 Units / 11.37% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 16-14 against the Run Line (+1.3 Units / 3.43% ROI).
- 16-14 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.8 Units / 5.15% ROI
- 20-10 when betting on the total runs Over for +9.1 Units / 27.96% ROI
- 10-20 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.55 Units / -37.3% ROI
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Yusei Kikuchi has a strike rate of 84% (73/87) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: 68% — 100th Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 59% of Yusei Kikuchi’s breaking pitches (358/604) since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 75 total IP; League Avg: 47% — 100th Percentile.
Yusei Kikuchi has walked 54 of 449 right-handed batters (12%) since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 75 total IP; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.
Yusei Kikuchi has spotted his fastball inside for a strike just 54% (206/379) of the time since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 75 total IP; League Avg: 65% — second Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Tanner Houck has walked 22 of 171 left-handed batters (13%) since last season — 9th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 10% — ninth Percentile.
Tanner Houck has a first-pitch strike rate of just 54% (191/356) since last season — lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 61% — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .293 (12-for-41) against Tanner Houck’s elevated fastball since last season — tied for 11th highest among among 114 qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .207 — 11th Percentile.
Tanner Houck has allowed a slugging percentage of just .241 (41 Total Bases / 170 ABs) against right-handed batters since last season — 4th best among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .357 — 96th Percentile.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Blue Jays are 41-58 (.414) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .290.
The Blue Jays are 2-9 (.182) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .046.
The Blue Jays are 54-44 (.551) on the road since last season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .470.
The Blue Jays are 6-2 (.750) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .701.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Red Sox are 4-13 (.235) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .099.
The Red Sox are 9-11 (.450) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .201.
The Red Sox are just 6-13 (.316) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are just 2-11 (.154) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .257.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
Blue Jays hitters have just 300 strikeouts in 1,540 PA’s (20%) against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Blue Jays are batting .264 on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .240.
Blue Jays hitters have just 50 strikeouts in 287 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Blue Jays are batting .374 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .340.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .452 (104 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .327.
The Red Sox are batting .367 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Red Sox hitters have just 146 strikeouts in 779 PA’s (19%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Red Sox are batting .273 at home since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Blue Jays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Blue Jays pitchers have walked 14 of 259 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Blue Jays pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Blue Jays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 37% over the past seven days (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 18 of 265 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 5.38 (756.1 IP) against division opponents since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.05.
The Red Sox have won 47% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2021 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 36% with two-strikes over the last 14 days (13 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Zachery Kelly (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Adam Duvall (Red Sox): Wrist, D10
- Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
- Kenley Jansen (Red Sox): Back, Day-to-Day
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Gregory Mills (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Yu-Cheng Chang (Red Sox): Hand, D10
- Raúl Mondesi (Red Sox): Knee, D60
- James Paxton (Red Sox): Hamstring, D15
- Joely RodrÃguez (Red Sox): Oblique, D15
- Hyun Jin Ryu (Blue Jays): Elbow, D60
- Adam Cimber (Blue Jays): Rhomboid, D15
- Chad Green (Blue Jays): Undisclosed, D60
- Mitchell White (Blue Jays): Elbow, D15
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