- The Blue Jays are -185 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Blue Jays starting pitcher: Kevin Gausman
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Brayan Bello
- Watch the game on NESN
The Toronto Blue Jays (-185) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (+150) on Thursday, May 4, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10pm EDT in Boston.
The Blue Jays are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-110).
The Blue Jays vs Red Sox Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Blue Jays are 18-13 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 18-14 ATS.
Blue Jays vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Blue Jays | -1.5 -110 | O 8.5 -110 | -185 |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -110 | U 8.5 -110 | +150 |
Blue Jays vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Blue Jays will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 64.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Blue Jays and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Blue Jays vs Red Sox and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Bets Today:
- George Springer has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 16 away games (+12.15 Units / 49% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 14 away games (+11.05 Units / 72% ROI)
- Matt Chapman has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 28 games (+9.05 Units / 16% ROI)
- Matt Chapman has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 32 games (+8.75 Units / 27% ROI)
- Matt Chapman has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 19 of his last 32 games (+8.60 Units / 23% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Rafael Devers has hit the Singles Under in 22 of his last 28 games (+14.80 Units / 45% ROI)
- Masataka Yoshida has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 13 games (+13.05 Units / 72% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 14 games (+12.00 Units / 48% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 22 games (+11.95 Units / 35% ROI)
- Justin Turner has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 21 games (+11.90 Units / 45% ROI)
Red Sox vs Blue Jays Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Kevin Kiermaier | 0.5 +1050 | 0.5 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Daulton Varsho | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Enrique Hernandez | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2500 |
Red Sox vs Blue Jays Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Kevin Kiermaier | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Daulton Varsho | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Enrique Hernandez | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
Red Sox vs Blue Jays RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Kevin Kiermaier | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -350 |
| Daulton Varsho | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Enrique Hernandez | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
Red Sox vs Blue Jays Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brayan Bello | 4.5 -135 | 4.5 +100 |
| Gausman | 6.5 +115 | 6.5 -150 |
Blue Jays Best Bets Today:
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 8 of their last 9 games (+7.20 Units / 64% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+5.50 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 20 games (+5.35 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.05 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 27 games (+4.40 Units / 13% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 23 of their last 32 games (+12.70 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 32 games (+11.10 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 19 games (+8.95 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 26 games (+6.90 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 13 of their last 21 games (+5.85 Units / 25% ROI)
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Blue Jays have gone 16-15 against the Run Line (-0.5 Units / -1.28% ROI).
- 18-13 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.5 Units / 1.05% ROI
- 13-16 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.65 Units / -13.74% ROI
- 16-13 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.35 Units / 3.92% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 18-14 against the Run Line (+3.3 Units / 8.15% ROI).
- 18-14 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.2 Units / 11.37% ROI
- 22-10 when betting on the total runs Over for +11.1 Units / 32.03% ROI
- 10-22 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.85 Units / -41.31% ROI
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kevin Gausman has allowed an OBP of just .058 (86 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .239 — 100th Percentile.
Kevin Gausman has a strikeout rate of 62% (54 SO in 87 PAs) with two-strikes this season — tied for 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 98th Percentile.
Kevin Gausman has a strikeout rate of 48% (13 SO in 27 PAs) with runners in scoring position this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .036 (3-for-84) against Kevin Gausman with two-strikes this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .169 — 100th Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Brayan Bello has allowed a BABIP of .429 this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 11 total IP; League Avg: .301 — first Percentile.
Brayan Bello has allowed an OBP of .414 (58 PA’s) this season — 7th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 11 total IP; League Avg: .321 — fourth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .360 (18-for-50) against Brayan Bello this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 11 total IP; League Avg: .253 — first Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .409 (9 GB hits out of 22 GBs) against Brayan Bello this season — 11th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 11 total IP; League Avg: .250 — sixth Percentile.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Blue Jays are 2-11 (.154) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .048.
The Blue Jays are 41-59 (.410) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .290.
The Blue Jays are 37-27 (.578) vs top 10 scoring offenses since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .404.
The Blue Jays are just 2-10 (.167) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — tied for 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .203.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Red Sox are 13-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .859.
The Red Sox are 4-13 (.235) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .107.
The Red Sox are just 7-13 (.350) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are just 4-9 (.308) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — tied for 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .399.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
The Blue Jays are batting .263 on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .240.
Blue Jays hitters have just 50 strikeouts in 290 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Blue Jays hitters have just 6 strikeouts in 49 PA’s (12%) against LHP over the last 14 days (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Blue Jays hitters have just 300 strikeouts in 1,543 PA’s (19%) against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .466 (116 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .328.
Red Sox hitters have just 154 strikeouts in 837 PA’s (18%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Red Sox are batting .276 at home since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Red Sox are batting .380 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Blue Jays pitchers have walked 14 of 275 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Blue Jays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Blue Jays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Blue Jays pitchers have walked 106 of 1,730 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 35% with two-strikes over the last 14 days (13 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% over the last 14 days (13 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 19 of 283 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 4 of 115 batters (4%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (13 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Zachery Kelly (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Adam Duvall (Red Sox): Wrist, D10
- Kutter Crawford (Red Sox): Knee, Day-to-Day
- Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
- Kenley Jansen (Red Sox): Back, Day-to-Day
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Gregory Mills (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Yu-Cheng Chang (Red Sox): Hand, D10
- Raúl Mondesi (Red Sox): Knee, D60
- James Paxton (Red Sox): Hamstring, D15
- Joely RodrÃguez (Red Sox): Oblique, D15
- Hyun Jin Ryu (Blue Jays): Elbow, D60
- Adam Cimber (Blue Jays): Rhomboid, D15
- Chad Green (Blue Jays): Undisclosed, D60
- Mitchell White (Blue Jays): Elbow, D15
Bet now on Blue Jays vs Red Sox and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.
