The 2021 college football bowl season is underway, and in this article, we will be looking at the Boca Raton Bowl. At the time of writing, BetMGM’s NCAAF odds have the Appalachian State Mountaineers as three-point favorites.
Do I think the betting odds are suitable for this game? And what are the best bets in this bowl game? Here is the Boca Raton Bowl game preview and all of the game information you need to know.
Appalachian State -3
I think the Mountaineers have the edge in this game because of their defense. They rank 16th in the country in points allowed per game (20.1), while the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers rank 83rd in this category (29.3).
Western Kentucky hasn’t faced a defense ranked this high all season. The highest-ranked defensive unit that the Hilltoppers have faced this season is Army, the 35th ranked scoring defense (23.5).
Although Western Kentucky scored 35 points in that game on Sept. 11th, they lost 38-35.
Western Kentucky can score points, averaging 43.1 points per game this season. Most of their offense comes from their passing attack, which averages 431 yards per game (1st). However, Appalachian State’s pass defense ranks 27th, only allowing 205.1 yards per game.
Appalachian State runs the ball on 57.26% of their plays, averaging 4.6 yards per rush. The Hilltoppers rush defense allows 158.9 yards per game (69th). I believe that the Mountaineers’ will run the ball to keep Western Kentucky’s offense off the field and that their defense will limit the Hilltoppers’ passing game just enough to win and cover.
Combined, these two teams average 77 points per game, so there is certainly an argument for this game to go over.
However, I believe in this Appalachian State defense, as I said above.
This defense gives up fewer points per game than any defense Western Kentucky has faced this season. Although the Hilltoppers have not scored less than 31 points in a game this season, I expect that to change here. In addition, Appalachian State’s defense is top 20 in opponent first downs, allowing an average of 17.8 per game.
In my opinion, the Mountaineers’ defense and their rushing attack make this under the total play a good value.
Appalachian State By 7-12 (+425)
This bet may be worth considering for those who are confident that the Mountaineers will cover but want a bigger reward. However, Western Kentucky has almost always put up a good fight in a loss, so this bet is a little riskier, in my opinion.
In their five losses this season, the Hilltoppers have lost by a combined total of 36 points. That is an average margin of a little over seven points per loss, with almost half of that margin coming against Michigan State back on Oct. 2nd (they lost by 17).
With that in mind, I like Western Kentucky’s chances to keep the margin of victory for Appalachian State to within this margin. I think the +425 odds give just enough value to take a chance on this alternative bet.
See More Odds for the Boca Raton Bowl and Other Games
These are three bets that I think are worth considering for the Boca Raton Bowl. Do you agree, or do you have other wagers in mind?
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