Canelo Alvarez vs. Edgar Berlanga Fight Card, Odds, & Predictions

One of boxing’s current pound-for-pound champions is back in action this weekend at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, as reigning undisputed super middleweight champion Canelo Álvarez defends his crown against undefeated challenger Edgar Berlanga.

Fight week. Let's get it. #CaneloBerlanga 🇲🇽vs🇵🇷

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— Premier Boxing Champions (@premierboxing) September 9, 2024

With his stacked and loaded credentials, Álvarez will head into the match as the heavy betting favorite with -1600 boxing odds. On the other hand, despite being an undefeated fighter with a high finish rate, Berlanga still comes in as the overwhelming +800 betting underdog.

Canelo Alvarez Recent Fight Results

Since that defeat from Dmitry Bivol in May 2022, Álvarezz has been on a tear and won his last four fights in dominant fashion. He first ended his rivalry with Gennadiy Golovkin in their trilogy match in September 2022 with a unanimous decision win.

👑 @Canelo, the face breaker 💀. #CaneloBerlanga comes to you Saturday on @SportsonPrime. Don't wait, order now: https://t.co/riwhCBVmNh pic.twitter.com/n8itzSMysx

— Premier Boxing Champions (@premierboxing) September 9, 2024

Then, the Mexican boxing superstar welcomed three challengers: John Ryder (in May 2023), Jermell Charlo (in September 2023), and, most recently, Jaime Munguía (in May). He defeated them with lopsided unanimous decision victories. Additionally, he scored a knockdown against the three of them during those bouts.

Edgar Berlanga Recent Fight Results

Berlanga is another surging young star who has won all his fights and eventually became Álvarez’s mandatory challenger. In his last five fights, he won four by unanimous decision and one by knockout to capture the vacant WBO NABO super middleweight title.

You can't run from @EdgarBerlangaJr once he has you hurt. He is the definition of punching through the guard.

Order the #CaneloBerlanga fight today: https://t.co/eGeOKgB6pI pic.twitter.com/oFjkZwIzHc

— Premier Boxing Champions (@premierboxing) September 7, 2024

“The Chosen One” scored wins over Marcelo Coceres (in October 2021), Steve Rolls (in March 2022), Roamer Alexis Angulo (in June 2022), Jason Quigley (in June 2023), and most recently, Padraig McCrory (in February).

Canelo Alvarez vs. Edgar Berlanga: Tale of the Tape

Canelo Alvarez vs. Edgar Berlanga: Fight Analysis

The tale of the tape between Álvarez and Berlanga reveals that the latter will have a 4-inch height and 2.5-inch reach advantage over the former. Also, he has a better TKO.KO percentage rate, although, of course, Berlanga hasn’t fought the same calibre of fighters that Álvarez faced.

Álvarez’s key to victory is to press forward and pressure Berlanga off the ropes. This way, he can cut off his edge in reach and surgically break him down on the corner, where he can fire his combinations to the head and body, much like he did with previous opponents who were taller and longer than him.

Furthermore, “Saul” has an elite-level fight IQ, which means he can adjust on the fly and tweak his fight plan depending on his opponent’s approach. This position of fighting up-and-coming undefeated challengers is not new to him.

Meanwhile, Berlanga should maximize his reach and height advantages against the defending champion. This is easier said than done, but it has been accomplished in the past, and he can rip off Bivol’s winning strategy against Álvarez.

During that match, Bivol used his physicality and range to fend off Álvarez throughout the fight. This removed the threat of his deadly combination and power punching and frustrated him for most of the match.

Another area of concern for Álvarez is his quickness and movement because he has seen a significant decline from his previous fight with Munguia, where he was hit with more clean shots than usual. This could be due to his age and father time is catching up with him.

However, despite this visible decline, I believe that Álvarez will still cruise into a comfortable victory against Berlanga. The biggest factor here is the bright lights surrounding the fight because it will be the biggest match in Berlanga’s career. It’s going to be a big step up for him, and the immense pressure to deliver on the grandest stage could consume him.

Canelo Alvarez vs. Edgar Berlanga: Date and Start Time

Sept. 14, 11 p.m. E.T.

Sept. 14, 10 p.m. C.T.

Sept. 14, 9 p.m. M.T.

Sept. 14, 8 p.m. P.T

Canelo Alvarez vs. Edgar Berlanga: Official Prediction

Official Prediction: TKO/KO victory for Canelo Álvarez