With Brady, Belichick Was ATS Gawd; Without Brady, Belichick is ATS Flop

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(Photo by Debby Wong/Shutterstock)
Andrew Doughty Oct 21, 2021, 8:30 PM

Bill Belichick won nearly 80 percent of his regular-season games as New England Patriots’ head coach when Tom Brady was the starting quarterback. Belichick didn’t have an against-the-spread winning percentage of nearly 80 percent when Brady started but the future Hall of Famers were a highly lucrative duo for more than 15 years.

Belichick and Brady’s ATS profitability began in 2003 when they covered in 13 of 16 games, one of the best ATS team records in NFL betting history. And when Brady departed New England after the 2019 season, he left behind an ATS record of 149-95-9 over his final 17 seasons. They posted a sub-.500 ATS record only once. And that happened when Brady missed the final 15 games of the 2008 season.

Here’s are the annual ATS records when Brady started:

  • 2019: 8-7-1
  • 2018: 9-7
  • 2017: 11-5
  • 2016: 10-2
  • 2015: 7-7-2
  • 2014: 9-7
  • 2013: 8-8
  • 2012: 9-6-1
  • 2011: 9-7
  • 2010: 10-5-1
  • 2009: 8-7-1
  • 2008: 0-1
  • 2007: 10-6
  • 2006: 9-7
  • 2005: 8-8
  • 2004: 11-3-2
  • 2003: 13-2-1

Brady posted another above-.500 ATS mark in 2020, his first with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, while Belichick went 7-9. And with a 2-4 ATS start in 2021, Belichick has covered in just nine of 22 regular-season games since Brady’s departure.

Belichick and the Patriots are a 7-point home favorite over the New York Jets in Week 7 NFL odds as they look to avoid a third straight ATS loss. It would be the third different ATS losing streak of at least three games in the last two seasons. Belichick had only three such streaks over the final six years with Brady.

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About the Author

Andrew Doughty

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Andrew Doughty is a writer for BetMGM and host of The Lion's Edge, an NFL and college football podcast available on Apple Podcasts and everywhere else.

Andrew Doughty is a writer for BetMGM and host of The Lion's Edge, an NFL and college football podcast available on Apple Podcasts and everywhere else.