- The Braves are -140 favorites vs the Marlins
- Braves starting pitcher: Kyle Wright
- Marlins starting pitcher: Braxton Garrett
- Watch the game on BSFL
The Atlanta Braves (-140) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+120) on Wednesday, May 3, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami.
The Braves are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).
The Braves vs Marlins Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Braves are 20-10 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 12-18 ATS.
Braves vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | -1.5 +120 | O 8.5 -115 | -140 |
| Marlins | +1.5 -140 | U 8.5 -105 | +120 |
Braves vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 60.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 27 games (+10.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 30 games (+8.50 Units / 26% ROI)
- Vaughn Grissom has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+7.80 Units / 46% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.00 Units / 28% ROI)
- Vaughn Grissom has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+6.85 Units / 22% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Garrett Cooper has hit the Runs Under in his last 11 games at home (+11.00 Units / 56% ROI)
- Jean Segura has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 19 games (+8.95 Units / 47% ROI)
- Jorge Soler has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 17 games at home (+8.95 Units / 31% ROI)
- Garrett Cooper has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 11 games at home (+8.90 Units / 44% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+8.50 Units / 23% ROI)
Marlins vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -700 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Nick Fortes | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -900 |
Marlins vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Nick Fortes | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +135 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Marlins vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Nick Fortes | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Marlins vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Wright | 4.5 -125 | 4.5 -105 |
| Braxton Garrett | 4.5 -145 | 4.5 +110 |
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 22 of their last 30 games (+13.25 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 21 of their last 30 games (+13.25 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 16 away games (+9.25 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 21 games (+7.70 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 16 away games (+7.50 Units / 38% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 16 games at home (+10.80 Units / 60% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games at home (+7.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 19 games (+6.80 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games at home (+4.00 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 12 games at home (+2.40 Units / 15% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 14-16 against the Run Line (-1.2 Units / -3.41% ROI).
- 20-10 when betting on the Moneyline for +7 Units / 14.83% ROI
- 17-12 when betting on the total runs Over for +4 Units / 12.25% ROI
- 12-17 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.95 Units / -20.84% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 12-18 against the Run Line (-10.9 Units / -26.33% ROI).
- 16-14 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.55 Units / 10.69% ROI
- 12-17 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.55 Units / -19.97% ROI
- 17-12 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.7 Units / 11.13% ROI
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kyle Wright has thrown his curveball 51% of the time (159/310) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total CB; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 64% (175/275) against Kyle Wright since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 75 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 56% (308/552) against Kyle Wright since last season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 95th Percentile.
Kyle Wright has thrown his curveball 66% of the time (59/90) with runners in scoring position this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total CB; League Avg: 19% — 100th Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Braxton Garrett has a strike rate of 73% (183/251) against right-handed batters this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 99th Percentile.
Braxton Garrett has walked 3 of 93 batters (3%) this season — 8th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: 8% — 95th Percentile.
Braxton Garrett has not allowed a HR in any of his last six starts dating back to September 29th, 2022 — John Brebbia has the longest active streak at 12.
Opponents are hitting .500 (8-for-16) against Braxton Garrett’s inside fastball this season — tied for highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: .271 — second Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Braves are 13-3 (.812) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 25-17 (.595) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .294.
The Braves are 5-4 (.556) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
The Braves were 21-15 (.583) when allowing 2 or more home runs in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .293.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Marlins are 7-0 (1.000) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .798.
The Marlins are just 1-14 (.067) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .202.
The Marlins are 21-3 (.875) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .805.
The Marlins are just 69-5 (.932) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .954.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .442 against RHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .395.
Braves hitters are slugging .302 with two-strikes since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Braves hitters have an OPS of .755 (5,232 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .706.
Braves hitters have an OPS of .833 (1,426 PA’s) on pitches 95 mph or greater since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .715.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters are slugging just .339 against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .401.
Marlins hitters have 877 strikeouts in 3,217 PA’s (27%) against LHP since the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Marlins are batting just .221 against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .283 (1,521 PA’s) against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .317.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers have won 100% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Braves pitchers have won 64% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have won only 0% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Marlins pitchers have won only 0% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins pitchers have won only 14% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Garrett Cooper (Marlins): Ear Infection, D10
- Thomas Nance (Marlins): Shoulder, D60
- Johnny Cueto (Marlins): Bicep, D15
- Jon Chargois (Marlins): Oblique, D15
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Forearm , D15
- Joseph Wendle (Marlins): Oblique, D10
- Nicholas Enright (Marlins): Illness, D60
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- AvisaÃl GarcÃa (Marlins): Back, D10
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Raisel Iglesias (Braves): Shoulder, D15
- Orlando Arcia (Braves): Wrist, D10
- Tyler Matzek (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Lucas Luetge (Braves): Bicep, D15
- Kolby Allard (Braves): Oblique, D60
- Travis d’Arnaud (Braves): Concussion, D7
- Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Elbow, D60
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