- The Braves are -110 favorites vs the Marlins
- Braves starting pitcher: Dylan Dodd
- Marlins starting pitcher: Jesús Luzardo
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Atlanta Braves (-110) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-110) on Thursday, May 4, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Miami.
The Braves are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Braves vs Marlins Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Braves are 21-10 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 12-19 ATS.
Braves vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | -1.5 +150 | O 8.5 -105 | -110 |
| Marlins | +1.5 -185 | U 8.5 -115 | -110 |
Braves vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 62.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 28 games (+11.85 Units / 23% ROI)
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 31 games (+9.50 Units / 28% ROI)
- Vaughn Grissom has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.80 Units / 49% ROI)
- Vaughn Grissom has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 16 games (+7.85 Units / 24% ROI)
- Kevin Pillar has hit the Hits Over in his last 7 away games (+7.00 Units / 61% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jorge Soler has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 18 games at home (+9.95 Units / 33% ROI)
- Jorge Soler has hit the RBIs Under in his last 9 games at home (+9.00 Units / 50% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 8 games at home (+8.25 Units / 57% ROI)
- Jorge Soler has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 11 games (+7.95 Units / 71% ROI)
- Jean Segura has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 20 games (+7.95 Units / 40% ROI)
Marlins vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Nick Fortes | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Sean Murphy | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Bryan De La Cruz | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
Marlins vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Nick Fortes | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +115 |
| Sean Murphy | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +125 |
| Bryan De La Cruz | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Marlins vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -145 |
| Nick Fortes | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Sean Murphy | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Bryan De La Cruz | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
Marlins vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jesus Luzardo | 6.5 +105 | 6.5 -135 |
| Dodd | 3.5 -145 | 3.5 +110 |
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 23 of their last 31 games (+14.25 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 22 of their last 31 games (+14.25 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 17 away games (+10.25 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 22 games (+8.70 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 17 away games (+8.65 Units / 42% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 17 games at home (+9.70 Units / 51% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 18 games at home (+6.00 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 games (+5.80 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Over in 10 of their last 15 games (+3.75 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 13 games at home (+1.40 Units / 8% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 15-16 against the Run Line (-0.05 Units / -0.14% ROI).
- 21-10 when betting on the Moneyline for +8 Units / 16.46% ROI
- 18-12 when betting on the total runs Over for +5 Units / 14.81% ROI
- 12-18 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.05 Units / -23.37% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 12-19 against the Run Line (-12.25 Units / -28.66% ROI).
- 16-15 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.55 Units / 7.46% ROI
- 13-17 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.55 Units / -16.37% ROI
- 17-13 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.6 Units / 7.57% ROI
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
No Matchup notes for this Game
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jesus Luzardo has allowed an OBP of .576 (33 PA’s) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .312 — first Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 12% (9/73) against Jesus Luzardo this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 18% (16/91) against Jesus Luzardo this season — tied for 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 96th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .481 (13-for-27) against Jesus Luzardo when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .249 — first Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Braves are 25-17 (.595) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .294.
The Braves are 13-3 (.812) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 14-3 (.824) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .477.
The Braves are 6-4 (.600) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .261.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Marlins are 15-0 (1.000) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .739.
The Marlins are 1-14 (.067) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .048.
The Marlins are just 61-15 (.803) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .878.
The Marlins are just 10-48 (.172) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .442 against RHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .395.
Braves hitters are slugging .302 with two-strikes since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Braves hitters are slugging .447 since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .397.
Braves hitters have an OPS of .804 (2,032 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .718.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have 414 strikeouts in 1,529 PA’s (27%) against LHP since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .283 (1,529 PA’s) against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .317.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .623 (1,529 PA’s) against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .718.
Marlins hitters have grounded into 31 double plays in 192 opportunities (16%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers have won 100% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Braves pitchers have won 64% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have won only 0% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 5.84 (111.0 IP) on the road this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.49.
Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 6.41 (139.0 IP) against division opponents this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.49.
Marlins vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Garrett Cooper (Marlins): Ear Infection, D10
- Thomas Nance (Marlins): Shoulder, D60
- Johnny Cueto (Marlins): Bicep, D15
- Jon Chargois (Marlins): Oblique, D15
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Forearm , D15
- Joseph Wendle (Marlins): Oblique, D10
- Nicholas Enright (Marlins): Illness, D60
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- AvisaÃl GarcÃa (Marlins): Back, D10
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Michael Harris II (Braves): Leg, Day-to-Day
- Raisel Iglesias (Braves): Shoulder, D15
- Orlando Arcia (Braves): Wrist, D10
- Tyler Matzek (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Kyle Wright (Braves): Shoulder, D15
- Lucas Luetge (Braves): Bicep, D15
- Kolby Allard (Braves): Oblique, D60
- Travis d’Arnaud (Braves): Concussion, D7
- Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Elbow, D60
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