Braves vs Pirates Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Mar 12

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Mar 12, 2023, 10:59 AM
  • The Braves are -125 favorites vs the Pirates
  • Braves starting pitcher: Jared Shuster, 0.00 ERA
  • Pirates starting pitcher: Mitch Keller, 3.85 ERA
  • Watch the game on SportsNet PT

The Atlanta Braves (-125) visit LECOM Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+105) on Sunday, March 12, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EDT in Bradenton.

The Braves are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).

The Braves vs Pirates Over/Under is 11.5 total runs for the game.

During Spring Training, the Braves are 3-5 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 5-6 ATS.

Braves vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Braves-1.5 +120O 11.5 -105-125
Pirates +1.5 -145U 11.5 -115+105

Braves vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Sunday‘s Spring Training matchup with 62.3% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Travis Demeritte has hit the Runs Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Travis Demeritte has hit the Hits Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+4.00 Units / 56% ROI)
  • Adam Duvall has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 6 of his last 8 away games (+3.60 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Travis Demeritte has hit the Total Bases Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+3.00 Units / 54% ROI)
  • Travis Demeritte has hit the Singles Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+2.70 Units / 19% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Josh VanMeter has hit the Runs Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the RBIs Under in 4 of his last 5 games at home (+1.50 Units / 11% ROI)
  • Jason Delay has hit the Singles Under in 4 of his last 5 games at home (+1.45 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 86 of their last 140 games (+23.04 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 79 of their last 116 games (+22.00 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 77 of their last 133 games (+21.60 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 57 away games (+12.55 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 35 of their last 57 away games (+12.15 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 56 of their last 98 games (+12.55 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Over in 19 of their last 26 games (+10.40 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 46 games at home (+8.30 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 18 games at home (+6.85 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 13 games at home (+6.55 Units / 43% ROI)

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 3-7 against the Run Line (-5.05 Units / -41.91% ROI).

  • 3-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.25 Units / -22.57% ROI
  • 6-4 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.75 Units / 16.06% ROI
  • 4-6 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.6 Units / -23.32% ROI

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 5-6 against the Run Line (-3 Units / -20.48% ROI).

  • 2-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.2 Units / -53.22% ROI
  • 8-2 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.9 Units / 48.76% ROI
  • 2-8 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.7 Units / -55.14% ROI

Opponents have a line drive rate of 34% (51/152) against Mitch Keller when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.

Mitch Keller has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 90.4 MPH on non-fastballs since the start of the 2021 season (370 balls in play) — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 86.9

Opponents are hitting .280 (136-for-485) against Mitch Keller’s non-fastballs since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .221 — second Percentile.

Mitch Keller has a first-pitch strike rate of just 56% (639/1,136) since the start of the 2021 season — 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 62% — fourth Percentile.

Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

The Braves are 11-3 (.786) when tied entering the 7th inning last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Braves are 36-5 (.878) when scoring in the first inning last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .664.

The Braves are 59-12 (.831) when hitting 2 or more home runs last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .707.

The Braves are 9-4 (.692) when tied entering the 8th inning last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

The Pirates are just 96-26 (.787) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.

The Pirates are just 52-8 (.867) when leading entering the 8th inning last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.

The Pirates are just 3-79 (.037) when trailing entering the 8th inning last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Pirates are just 58-87 (.400) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.

Braves hitters are slugging .517 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .449.

Braves hitters are slugging .624 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .571.

Braves hitters slugged .307 with two-strikes last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .263.

Braves hitters slugged .656 on the first pitch of at-bats last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .560.

The Pirates are batting just .145 with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.

Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .291 (3,601 PA’s) against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.

Pirates hitters are slugging just .170 on pitches out of the zone since the start of 2020 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.

Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .450 (6,270 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .510.

Braves pitchers had a strikeout rate of 26% last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Opponents had a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Braves pitchers had a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

The Braves allowed 1.02 runs per game (165/162) in late innings last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 1.28.

Pirates pitchers have walked 1,439 of 14,594 batters (10%) since the start of 2020 — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 60% of their games on the road last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 242 of 2,817 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of the 2021 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% in close and late situations since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Pirates vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Atlanta Braves – No Injuries Reported

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.