- The Braves are -125 favorites vs the Pirates
- Braves starting pitcher: Jared Shuster, 0.00 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Mitch Keller, 3.85 ERA
- Watch the game on SportsNet PT
The Atlanta Braves (-125) visit LECOM Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+105) on Sunday, March 12, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EDT in Bradenton.
The Braves are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).
The Braves vs Pirates Over/Under is 11.5 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Braves are 3-5 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 5-6 ATS.
Braves vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | -1.5 +120 | O 11.5 -105 | -125 |
| Pirates | +1.5 -145 | U 11.5 -115 | +105 |
Braves vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Sunday‘s Spring Training matchup with 62.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Travis Demeritte has hit the Runs Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Travis Demeritte has hit the Hits Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+4.00 Units / 56% ROI)
- Adam Duvall has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 6 of his last 8 away games (+3.60 Units / 38% ROI)
- Travis Demeritte has hit the Total Bases Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+3.00 Units / 54% ROI)
- Travis Demeritte has hit the Singles Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+2.70 Units / 19% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Josh VanMeter has hit the Runs Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the RBIs Under in 4 of his last 5 games at home (+1.50 Units / 11% ROI)
- Jason Delay has hit the Singles Under in 4 of his last 5 games at home (+1.45 Units / 14% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 86 of their last 140 games (+23.04 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 79 of their last 116 games (+22.00 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 77 of their last 133 games (+21.60 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 57 away games (+12.55 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 35 of their last 57 away games (+12.15 Units / 19% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 56 of their last 98 games (+12.55 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Over in 19 of their last 26 games (+10.40 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 46 games at home (+8.30 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 18 games at home (+6.85 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 13 games at home (+6.55 Units / 43% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 3-7 against the Run Line (-5.05 Units / -41.91% ROI).
- 3-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.25 Units / -22.57% ROI
- 6-4 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.75 Units / 16.06% ROI
- 4-6 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.6 Units / -23.32% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 5-6 against the Run Line (-3 Units / -20.48% ROI).
- 2-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.2 Units / -53.22% ROI
- 8-2 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.9 Units / 48.76% ROI
- 2-8 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.7 Units / -55.14% ROI
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of 34% (51/152) against Mitch Keller when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.
Mitch Keller has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 90.4 MPH on non-fastballs since the start of the 2021 season (370 balls in play) — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 86.9
Opponents are hitting .280 (136-for-485) against Mitch Keller’s non-fastballs since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .221 — second Percentile.
Mitch Keller has a first-pitch strike rate of just 56% (639/1,136) since the start of the 2021 season — 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 62% — fourth Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Braves are 11-3 (.786) when tied entering the 7th inning last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 36-5 (.878) when scoring in the first inning last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .664.
The Braves are 59-12 (.831) when hitting 2 or more home runs last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .707.
The Braves are 9-4 (.692) when tied entering the 8th inning last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Pirates are just 96-26 (.787) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.
The Pirates are just 52-8 (.867) when leading entering the 8th inning last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Pirates are just 3-79 (.037) when trailing entering the 8th inning last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Pirates are just 58-87 (.400) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .517 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .449.
Braves hitters are slugging .624 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .571.
Braves hitters slugged .307 with two-strikes last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Braves hitters slugged .656 on the first pitch of at-bats last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .560.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .145 with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .291 (3,601 PA’s) against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .170 on pitches out of the zone since the start of 2020 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .450 (6,270 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .510.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers had a strikeout rate of 26% last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents had a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Braves pitchers had a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Braves allowed 1.02 runs per game (165/162) in late innings last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 1.28.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,439 of 14,594 batters (10%) since the start of 2020 — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 60% of their games on the road last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 242 of 2,817 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of the 2021 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% in close and late situations since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Pirates vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Atlanta Braves – No Injuries Reported
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